wet weather ahead... (pm.5.feb.11)>

skies are cloudy early this evening, with a mix of light rain and snow falling on the mountains above town.  already there are reports that rohtang pass is unpassable (again).  we had more light showers this morning, and some random sprinkles this afternoon... along with a mild high temp of 61F (16C).

our intense late-winter storm is still organizing just to our west, and will bring deteriorating weather conditions as the weekend progresses.  showers and even some thunderstorms are likely to increase overnight and sunday... with some steady and fairly heavy rainfall expected on monday and tuesday, as moisture from the arabian sea gets pulled northward against the western himalayas.  a very heavy snow event is forecast for elevations above 2500m (8200ft)... with one to two meters (3-6ft) of snow likely.  bad news for trekkers and travelers, but very good news for the spring water supply!!

once precipitation begins, our temperatures are going to start falling... how far and how fast they fall will determine whether or not we get in on the snow action here in the immediate mcleod ganj area.  right now, i think a change to sleet and snow is a good bet sometime on monday.  stay tuned for further updates...

SATURDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy skies with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.
low: 9C (48F)

SUNDAY: cloudy and colder with periods of rain and thunderstorms likely.  temperatures will be steady or slowly falling...
high: 9C (49F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: occasional rain and thunderstorms likely.
low: 5C (41F)

MONDAY: cloudy and colder with rain and some thunder.  rain could mix with snow and sleet.
high: 7C (44F)

TUESDAY: good chance of an icy mix of rain, snow and sleet... mainly in the morning.
high: 6C (43F)

WEDNESDAY: becoming partly cloudy, with a chance of a lingering rain/snow shower.
high: 9C (48F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly sunny.  milder!
high: 12C (53F)

thundery preview... (am.5.feb.11)>

starting around 4am, we got a little preview of what's to come during the next 3-4 days.  we've had some thundershowers in the area... but i have less than 1mm (.03") in the rain gauge to show for it, so far.  this morning's temp is hovering right around 53F (11.5C)... skies are cloudy.

our early morning thunder was associated with the first little wave of energy being spun out of the developing storm system to our west.  the main energy with this system is going to hold back for another couple of days... that's why we are in for a prolonged period of unsettled weather.  i'm expecting just scattered/occasional periods of showers today and tonight... but then steadier and heavier precipitation should get cranked up tomorrow... and last into tuesday.  at this point, i think we will see significant, maybe even heavy rainfall before all is said and done... with several feet (1-2m) of snow likely higher up the mountain, mainly above 2500m.  this is NOT a good time to be venturing up to higher elevations or trying to cross passes... either on foot or by road.

it remains to be seen whether it will get cold enough here in mcleod ganj for snow... but i'd say there is at least a 50/50 chance that we could have snow and sleet mixed with the rain by monday and tuesday.  i'll do my best to keep you updated...

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy, with perhaps a couple of sunny breaks.  good chance of a few showers and thundershowers in the area.
high: 14C (58F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with a good chance of occasional showers and thundershowers.
low: 9C (48F)

SUNDAY: cloudy skies with periods of rain and thunderstorms likely.  colder... with temperatures steady or falling...
high: 9C (49F)

MONDAY: cloudy and colder with rain and thunder.  rain could possibly become mixed with sleet and snow.
high: 7C (44F)

TUESDAY: thunder, rain, sleet and snow... cold!
high: 6C (43F)

WEDNESDAY: still a few rain and snow showers around... but skies should start to clear a bit.
high: 9C (48F)

just in time for the weekend... (pm.4.feb.11)>

maybe you could feel the changes in the air today... clouds thickening all day, humidity on the rise, and even the damp scent of rain.  there was enough sunshine this morning to give us another unseasonably mild high temp of just over 62F (16.7C), but we did drop a couple of degrees during the afternoon.

we have a very interesting and complicated weather scenario shaping up for the next several days.  say goodbye to the recent string of mild and dry days... as a developing, slow-moving storm system sets up over the western himalayas.  scattered light rain showers will become more likely during the next 24 hours, but then heavier and steadier precipitation appears to be on the way for sunday through tuesday, along with a sharp turn to colder weather.  the mountains (mainly above 2000m) are in for some heavy snowfall, and we'll have to watch carefully how things develop, to see if it will cool off enough for snow in mcleod ganj by monday and tuesday.  in the meantime, you might want to make sure you know where your umbrella is, and check to see that your heater is still in working order!!  details below...

FRIDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy skies with a few sprinkles and light rain showers.
low: 12C (53F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a good chance of a few scattered rain showers.
high: 14C (58F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with rain chances increasing...
low: 8C (47F)

SUNDAY: much cooler... temps steady or falling.  periods of rain likely, along with possible thunder.
high: 9C (48F)

MONDAY: cloudy and cold with rain (and some thunder) likely, possibly mixed with snow.
high: 7C (44F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy and cold with a good chance of more rain and/or snow.
high: 7C (44F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy and not as cold.  but still a few rain/snow showers possible.
high: 9C (49F)

transitions... (am.4.feb.11)>

we've got to be in record territory with these temperatures... i have a minimum of only 55F (12.8C) up here at my place this morning, which is the warmest february min temp i can remember.  we'll have another day...maybe two... of this super-mild weather, but then things are going to change.

the atmosphere is gathering its resources to produce a pretty strong late winter storm during the next few days.  rain and snow will first be concentrated to our north and west, across northern pakistan into kashmir, but as this system moves eastward over the weekend, we will start to get in on the action.  scattered light showers are possible today, but rainfall coverage and intensity will increase into sunday and monday, with a dramatic drop in temperatures expected.  be advised that heavy snow is likely to fall in the mountains, mainly above 2000m (6500ft), especially from sunday through tuesday.  some of that snow could make it down to mcleod ganj... but at this point, it looks like mostly rain for us.  stay tuned as it all comes together over the next couple of days...

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies, with a chance of a few sprinkles or light showers developing, mainly during the afternoon.  another very mild day.
high: 17C (62F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with a chance of a few light showers.
low: 12C (53F)

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy, with a better chance of a few rain showers.
high: 14C (58F)

SUNDAY: cloudy and cooler with a good chance of showers and even a thunderstorm or two...
high: 9C (49F)

MONDAY: cloudy and cold with periods of rain likely, along with possible thunderstorms.
high: 8C (46F)

TUESDAY: more rain, possibly mixed with snow.  cold!
high:7C (44F)