more challenges ahead... (pm.02.apr.15)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 47.7F (8.7C)

High temp: 57.2F (14.0C)

Rainfall since 7am: 0.12" (3mm)

It is totally cloudy just after dark this evening, at the end of a day which turned out to be kind of a bummer.  We had only the shortest glimpses of dim sunshine, though I expected there to be some brighter periods at least here and there.  There were also numerous brief episodes of sprinkles and light rain showers until the mid-afternoon.  Temperature-wise, today has been the coolest day since the 16th of March.

As most of you know, there is still not very much good weather news going on, as we remain in a very active upper-level flow which keeps us underneath a fast-moving jet stream which is embedded with disturbances of varying degrees of intensity.  There is also a decent source of moisture available to our south and southwest, along a very tight temperature gradient.  Anyway... all of that means that the potential for significant waves of showers and thunderstorms is rather high -- especially between tonight and Friday night.  I have to say that the latest data points to a Good Friday that will not be very good at all if you're not into rain and cool temperatures.

But although progress could be very slow, improvements should begin to set in over the weekend as our upper-level pattern starts to shift.  Isolated to widely scattered showers and thundershowers could still occur on any given day, even into the middle of next week, but there should be more sunshine finally showing up as well.  Temperatures will be on the upswing as well, hopefully.

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april woes... (am.02.apr.15)>

A rogue band of thundershowers is just moving off to the east of us this morning at sunrise, leaving us with skies that are trying to clear out a bit.  I was surprised to hear the thunder start up again between 4:00 and 5:00am -- and my rain gauge shows an additional 0.25" (6mm) since about 8:30pm last night.  The temperature this morning is hovering right around 50ºF/10ºC, but I'm recording an overnight low of 47.7ºF/8.7ºC which occurred while it was raining.

Although we're technically 'in between' individual disturbances in this long series, obviously the atmosphere is unstable enough to trigger random thundershowers anyway.  Still, I think we've got a better day on the way today, with perhaps a bit more sunshine than we've seen recently, along with only isolated showers or a thundershower.  Any improvement today will be very short-lived, however, as an even stronger upper-level disturbance/circulation will begin to affect us by tonight, bringing in another likelihood of periods of rain and thunderstorms lasting all the way through tomorrow (Good Friday).  April is certainly not getting off to a pleasant start, is it?

There are fairly consistent indications that we will see some kind of a positive shift in the overall pattern starting Saturday or Easter Sunday.  The risk of some scattered shower/thunder action can't be entirely removed from the forecast, but I think we'll see a trend toward more stabilization of this atmosphere as warmer air begins to slowly filter back in.  Let's keep an eye on how it evolves, but I think our temperatures by the middle of next week could be pushing 70ºF/21ºC once again...

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not pleasant at all... (pm.01.apr.15)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 49.1F (9.5C)
High temp: 59.0F (15.0C)
Rainfall: 0.47" (1.2cm) -- updated @ 8:30pm

Just as I've opened up a new page to start typing, the setting sun has broken through in the western sky.  It was a much different story just 15 minutes ago, as we've had an impressive period of moderate to heavy rain showers this evening.  The first rain drops appeared just before noon today, with frequent mainly light showers throughout the afternoon which were accompanied by thunder at times.  It was nice to get a bit of sunshine this morning, but as has been the case this whole week, we've only been teased and then betrayed by those short sunny breaks.

The latest in this extended series of upper-level disturbances is rolling into southwestern Jammu & Kashmir right now, and has behaved exactly according to expectations.  There's still a chance of more shower or thundershower development overnight, but I think the general trend is going to be toward some stabilization of our air mass, especially after midnight.  That's going to set us up for a fairly decent Thursday -- we'll again find ourselves in between disturbances, and should see a mix of clouds and occasional sunshine, along with a bit of a bump in temperatures.

Another wave of rain and thunderstorms will be on the way by Thursday night, continuing through Good Friday and maybe into the wee hours of Saturday morning.  It still looks like this disturbance could be the most powerful of the entire week, so keep that in mind.  THEN -- there are some hopeful signs showing up thereafter, as a very slow and incremental turn to more stable conditions sets over the weekend into early next week.  At this point, I can't say that we won't see any rain at all, but there should be much more sunshine, with most of the shower/thundershower activity confined to afternoon development in the vicinity of the mountains.  We should find ourselves considerably warmer by the middle of next week, though still below normal for early April.

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a busy weather pattern... (am.01.apr.15)>

It is mostly cloudy at sunrise on this Wednesday morning, the first day of April, but those clouds are mostly of the high-level variety.  We're getting a taste of some slightly milder temperatures as well -- I'm recording an overnight low of 52.9F (11.6C) here on Tushita Road in the upper part of town.  There has only been a trace of rainfall since last evening.

We remain in the middle of an active weather pattern -- an upper-level flow that contains several fast-moving disturbances, along with a batch of unseasonably moist air lurking just to our south and southwest.  These factors, in combination with a battle between milder air at the surface to our south and much cooler air in the mid- and upper-levels to our north is keeping us in a favorable position to receive more periods of showers and thunderstorms through the rest of this week.  Of course, as we've been expecting, there have been plenty of breaks between periods of rain, but we've been unable to get more than fleeting glimpses of sunshine since Sunday.

The latest disturbance is moving into northern Pakistan this morning, and should increase our risk of a couple of periods of rain and maybe a thundershower or two by this afternoon and evening, into the overnight hours.  Then there will probably be another temporary break in the action before the next disturbance stirs up another batch of rain and thunderstorms by Thursday night... probably lasting through Good Friday.  There are indications that rain chances will diminish somewhat on Saturday into Easter Sunday, but I think our air mass will remain unstable enough to trigger at least isolated to widely scattered showers/thundershowers anyway.  The point is, we're not looking at any kind of definitive stabilization and long-term clearing trend until sometime next week, and even then it's looking questionable.  As we all know... our temps are stuck in this well below normal/average range for at least another week...

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