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Sunday, April 2, 2017

big changes later this week... (pm.02.apr.17)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 62.2F (16.8C)
High temp: 77.1F (25.1C)
Rainfall: none

I've recorded high temps between 77ºF (25ºC) and 79ºF (26ºC) on each of the last seven days -- so this stretch of unseasonably warm weather has certainly been clinging tightly.  Other than a moderate build-up of cumulus clouds over the mountains since just before noon, it's been a mostly sunny day, with isolated thundershowers up-mountain being deflected away from us by the upper-level winds.  This evening at sunset those mountain clouds are dissipating rapidly.  And, by the way, today is the 16TH DAY IN A ROW without measurable rainfall.

Upper-level temps are cooling ever-so-slightly, but with very limited moisture, the increasing instability hasn't been able to deliver any thundershowers right here in our immediate area.  Tomorrow (Mon) there will be a very slight chance of a PM shower or thundershower, but really, we're just waiting for the main event of the week which will start happening late Tuesday.  That's when a strong storm system will begin taking shape just to our west, bringing in much colder air aloft, and a significant amount of moisture into the western Himalayas.  Since yesterday, it has been looking like the best rain chances might hold off until Tuesday evening, with several periods of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms likely on Wednesday through Thursday night.  Even on Friday there will most probably be some lingering thundershowers in the area.  Gusty winds will accompany this system as well -- along with temperatures which will feel uncomfortably cold after our recent long stretch of early summer-like weather.

Whenever there are signs of a dramatic change like this -- either very early or very late in the winter season, there is a major concern about trekkers, climbers and general travelers in the higher elevations who may not be paying attention to what's going on.  Now is a good time for a 'heads-up' for those people.