the latest...

**Our six-day rainfall total, since last Saturday, is 10.55" (26.8cm). That's one heck of a big amount of rain for so early in our evolving monsoon season...

Monday, May 30, 2016

may to june transitions... (pm.30.may.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 59.4F (15.2C)
High temp: 75.0F (23.9C)
Rainfall: 0.14" (4mm) -- updated @ 8:30pm

Shower-bearing clouds are still visible to the north and northeast along the Dhauladhars, otherwise we have partly cloudy skies this evening before sunset.  It's been dizzying to keep up with the changes going on today, with frequent fluctuations between clouds and sun, and several periods of mainly light rain showers with a bit of thunder at times.  There was also a very brief spell of hail between 4:30 and 5:00pm, at least where I was, near Tsuglakhang.  Humidity averaged unusually high for late May -- between 55 and 60%, while temperatures were about 10ºF/6ºC cooler than normal.

But we are on the brink of a radically changing weather pattern, and it's going to be interesting to see how things evolve over the course of the next three or four days.  The recent active northwesterly flow that has been delivering occasional disturbances and pockets of destabilizing colder air aloft will be morphing into a huge ridge of high pressure between late tomorrow and Thursday -- as much warmer air begins streaming in from the west in the upper-levels of the atmosphere.  Theoretically, and according to all the computer model guidance, this should bring a massive warm-up during the coming several days.  BUT -- our location and unique conditions here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars can easily spoil what looks like a trend toward fair, dry and warmer weather.  Lingering moisture and leftover cooler air near the surface, overrun by much warmer air aloft can lead to cloudiness and even scattered showers around here, in spite of the large-scale pattern.  As I said, it will be interesting to see how the mountains handle the rapid and dramatic air mass transition during the coming few days.

If cloud development remains minimal, we will easily approach or even exceed 90ºF/32ºC by the end of the week, with only a small chance of isolated thunder issues during the PM hours.  But if the clouds materialize, these coming first few days of June won't be so warm, but will be on the muggy side.  Stay tuned...

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (above) has all the forecast specs.