may ending nicely... (pm.31.may.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 61.0F (16.1C)
High temp: 83.4F (28.6C)
Rainfall: none

Just a couple of lingering cumulus clouds are hanging along the peaks of the Dhauladhars this evening, otherwise our sky is mostly clear.  It's been a fine finish to May -- a month which has featured all kinds of drama -- with sunshine and warming temps the dominant themes of the day.  The expected mid-day build-up of clouds along the mountains never turned into anything to be concerned about, as humidity dropped from just over 60% early this morning, to about 30% during the late afternoon.

Well, last evening the discussion centered on how a radically warmer air mass was going to interact with a bit of lingering moisture along the mountains as this week unfolded.  It seems we've sailed through with flying colors today, which is the first day of what should be a major warming trend.  The most immense high pressure ridge of the summer season is just now starting to develop and push into western India, and by the weekend should be sprawled from the Arabian Sea into central China.  Temperatures throughout all layers of the atmosphere will be on the increase, with relative warmth extending even into the upper-levels of the atmosphere.  This should be a stable situation across a wide area -- though there is always concern and anxiety, honestly, about the wild cards here along the outer ranges of the Himalayas.

Overall, we should see temps climbing day-by-day to their highest levels of the season and the year, but an increase in haze is likely by the end of the week as well, along with at least a slight chance of some rogue thundershower development somewhere along the mountain slopes, mainly during the afternoon hours.  Yes, it is the middle of our north India Himalayan summer, and it should definitely feel that way during the coming week or so.

The forecast for the first week of June can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above, along with the finalized MAY DAILY STATS, which are quite interesting.

may to june transitions... (pm.30.may.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 59.4F (15.2C)
High temp: 75.0F (23.9C)
Rainfall: 0.14" (4mm) -- updated @ 8:30pm

Shower-bearing clouds are still visible to the north and northeast along the Dhauladhars, otherwise we have partly cloudy skies this evening before sunset.  It's been dizzying to keep up with the changes going on today, with frequent fluctuations between clouds and sun, and several periods of mainly light rain showers with a bit of thunder at times.  There was also a very brief spell of hail between 4:30 and 5:00pm, at least where I was, near Tsuglakhang.  Humidity averaged unusually high for late May -- between 55 and 60%, while temperatures were about 10ºF/6ºC cooler than normal.

But we are on the brink of a radically changing weather pattern, and it's going to be interesting to see how things evolve over the course of the next three or four days.  The recent active northwesterly flow that has been delivering occasional disturbances and pockets of destabilizing colder air aloft will be morphing into a huge ridge of high pressure between late tomorrow and Thursday -- as much warmer air begins streaming in from the west in the upper-levels of the atmosphere.  Theoretically, and according to all the computer model guidance, this should bring a massive warm-up during the coming several days.  BUT -- our location and unique conditions here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars can easily spoil what looks like a trend toward fair, dry and warmer weather.  Lingering moisture and leftover cooler air near the surface, overrun by much warmer air aloft can lead to cloudiness and even scattered showers around here, in spite of the large-scale pattern.  As I said, it will be interesting to see how the mountains handle the rapid and dramatic air mass transition during the coming few days.

If cloud development remains minimal, we will easily approach or even exceed 90ºF/32ºC by the end of the week, with only a small chance of isolated thunder issues during the PM hours.  But if the clouds materialize, these coming first few days of June won't be so warm, but will be on the muggy side.  Stay tuned...

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (above) has all the forecast specs.

instability issues remain... (pm.29.may.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 59.6F (15.3C)
High temp: 80.9F (27.2C)
Rainfall: none

Clouds have begun to stream in from the northwest during the last hour or so, in advance of a few clusters of thundershowers which developed over western Jammu & Kashmir this afternoon.  Otherwise, we've been able to enjoy a mostly sunny day, with cumulus development over the Dhauladhars never really crossing the line and progressing into anything like we saw yesterday.  Despite all the sunshine, temps were several degrees lower than normal for the very end of May, and that's one of the reasons why things didn't become so unstable.  Humidity was in the range of 35-40% all day.

We've missed out on the thundershowers so far... but this evening's satellite pics show quite a bit of activity northwest of us, which could affect us later tonight.  Also there has been some development across eastern Himachal Pradesh into central Uttarakhand.  Even though it's been dry since last night around 9:00pm, the ingredients are still mostly in place for another round or two of showers/thunder until Monday night, with a lingering risk of an isolated thundershower on Tuesday.  Temps should stay on the cool side of normal as we close out the month.

However, the most potent ridge of summertime high pressure of the season is being projected to take over all of north India by the middle of the week -- and it looks like we have a good shot of reaching or exceeding our high temp for the year (90.4F/32.4C) by Friday or Saturday.  That's still a very long way into the future, meteorologically speaking, but it will be interesting to see if that kind of heatwave pattern truly materializes...

Explore tabs above for the forecast details, along with lots of other stuff.

atmospheric confusion... (pm.28.may.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 55.0F (12.8C)
High temp: 85.2F (29.6C)
Rainfall: 1.34" (3.4cm) -- final total

We're in the midst of numerous fits-and-starts of rain showers, thunder and a few brief periods of hail this evening -- under mostly cloudy skies.  Today has seemed like two totally separate days:  the one we experienced up until about 1:30pm, and then the one after.  The first part of the day featured more of our recent intense summer sunshine, with temperatures soaring rapidly into the mid-80s (ºF).  But right around noon, towering cumulus clouds started developing over the mountains, and soon matured into cumulonimbus (thunderheads), with the first faint rumbles of thunder just before 1:30pm.  The significant showers didn't materialize here in town until almost exactly 3:00pm, but then we've had off-on-on rain/thunder/hail ever since... in spite of a brief period of sunshine between 4:30 and 5:00pm.  The low temp since midnight (see above) occurred during one of the heavier rain/hail episodes this evening.  What a day.

Instability was expected to kick in again today, but I have been shocked and stunned that the resulting thundershower development (from southwestern Jammu & Kashmir all the way into western Nepal) has been so widespread and intense.  A more moisture-laden air mass has been drifting northward, up and against the outer Himalayan ranges, as some weak energy aloft drifts in from the northwest.  Also, there are some pockets of slightly colder air in the upper-levels that are gradually moving in.  If you are a regular weather watcher, you know that this is the classic recipe for thunderstorm development along the southwestern-facing slopes of the mountains -- and when you add into the equation some very warm mid-summer air in the surface layers, the stage is set.

The sun will continue to appear, but this instability will keep us on our toes all the way through Monday night or Tuesday, keeping the potential for more showers/thunder in the forecast. There should be a fresh trend toward stability by late Tuesday into Wednesday -- models are still advertising a massive ridge of high pressure for the latter half of next week, which could potentially deliver the warmest/hottest temps of the season and the year...

Climatological norms, monthly stats, THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, and more, can be found on tabs above.

classic summertime... (pm.27.may.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 66.0F (18.9C)
High temp: 88.1F (31.2C)
Rainfall: none

There are a few clumps of pathetic-looking scraggly cumulus clouds along the mountains as daylight starts to fade this evening, otherwise our skies are mostly clear.  It has been a classic mid-summer day here in our part of the world, with all the sunshine we could want or need, only that feeble mountain cloud development from late morning onwards, very warm temperatures, and low humidity.  In fact, the humidity never got above 28% today, and that made the heat quite tolerable.  My thermometer says that we had one of the top five warmest high temps of the season and the year thus far.

A uniform northwesterly flow in the upper-levels of the atmosphere -- the level that determines and drives weather patterns -- has prevailed the last few days, and will continue to dominate through the weekend into early next week.  However, there are indications that a surge of more moisture-laden air will approach from the south during the coming 36 hours or so, as some slightly cooler air sinks in from the north in the higher levels.  This combo will give us another period of instability, especially by late Sunday, lasting into Tuesday.  At this point, I'm not expecting the kind of wet spell we dealt with earlier this week, but I do think the risk of some isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase again.  Here along the front slopes of the north Indian Himalayas, smart people remain prepared for sudden changes, even if things are looking tranquil -- something to keep in mind the next few days.

Computer model data is showing a massive ridge of summertime high pressure building from Pakistan into the northwest third of India by Wednesday and Thursday, with humidity dropping again, and temps perhaps soaring to new highs for 2016...

Check out the tabs across the top of the page for lots of other info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

temps back to normal... (pm.26.may.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 63.0F (17.2C)
High temp: 84.3F (29.1C)
Rainfall: none

Some clouds linger along the Dhauladhars this evening, otherwise we have fair skies during this hour before sunset.  It has been a pleasantly warm late May day, with temperatures very close to normal, and humidity running in the 28-40% range, which is not too bad at all.  We've had more sun than clouds, but it was a close call for a few hours during the early to mid-afternoon hours, with quite a lot of flat cumulus development which threatened to steal that sunshine for a while.

Apart from the normal mountain instability which is present during the vast majority of days during the warm season, the weather pattern is a quiet one across the western and central Himalayan region.  There are some isolated thundershowers to our west-northwest, but they will most likely fall apart as the sun sets and the daytime heating comes to a halt.  Tomorrow (Fri) is looking like another nice day, with temperatures warming a couple of degrees over and above what we saw today.

There will be a surge of moisture approaching from the south and southeast over the weekend, which, along with a very warm air mass and the aid of both the mountains and a weak ripple of upper-level energy,  could produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms -- especially late Saturday through Sunday and perhaps into Monday.  Of course our rainfall for the month of May has been staggeringly high, and with the monsoon season coming our way in about 4-5 weeks, we really have no need for more rain in the near future.  But let's see...

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK has all the forecast specifics, located on a tab up above.

much better than before... (pm.25.may.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 61.2F (16.2C)
High temp: 80.2F (26.8C)
Rainfall: none

There are some patchy clouds around the area this evening, but we also have a good amount of blue sky, with very pleasant temperatures.  Our whole situation has been much improved today, with the expected mix of sunshine and clouds (but with the sun winning the majority), and only some isolated thundershower development right along the Dhauladhars during the afternoon.  I heard thunder rumbling a few times between 1:40 and around 4:00pm, but as far as I am aware, there was no rain at all here in town.  Temps were more than 10ºF/6ºC warmer today than yesterday... back more in line for this time of year.

A fairly uninteresting west-northwesterly flow in the upper-atmosphere will dominate our weather pattern for the remainder of this week, as the moisture content of our air mass decreases.  Gradual warming is expected throughout all layers of the atmosphere, and that should push our temps back into the normal range, and even a bit above, for this final week of May.  Each and every day there will be at least a slight risk of some kind of PM mountain thundershower development, but the vast majority of our hours will be dry ones, with a good amount of sunshine.  In other words, it's a quiet weather pattern we'll be dealing with, apart from the usual wild card concerning mountain thunder issues during the afternoons.

Humidity levels will be quite low for the next 48 hours or so, but there is a good chance they will creep up again over the weekend into early next week, as a more moisture-laden air mass gathers just to our south.

Check tabs above for THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, MAY DAILY STATS, and other info and discussions...

4 x normal rainfall... (pm.24.may.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 53.2F (11.8C)
High temp: 69.4F (20.8C)
Rainfall: 2.71" (6.9cm) -- updated @ 8:15pm

The clouds are trying to break a bit to the north and west, otherwise it's still mostly cloudy this evening, with a few sprinkles and very light showers scattered around town.  We've had a few periods of mainly light rain showers, a bit of thunder, and some gusty winds at times today, but the vast majority of our mammoth rainfall total occurred between about 4:30 and 7:30am.  It rained extremely hard from 5:00 to 6:00am, and as I was lying there listening to it, it felt eerily similar to a mid-monsoon morning.  I've now measured about 9.50" (24cm) of rain for the month of May, which is more than FOUR TIMES the normal/average amount for the entire month -- with a week to go.  Also noteworthy is the fact that both our high and low temps were the second-coolest for this May.

There will still probably be some isolated or widely scattered showers and thundershowers somewhere in our vicinity overnight, with the risk of a thundershower or two on Wednesday as well, but the trend during the coming 24-36 hours will be toward a more stable atmosphere, overall, and I am hopeful that we'll see much more sunshine tomorrow (Wed), with temperatures starting to rebound rather quickly.  The computer model data shows an extremely dramatic warm-up by Friday and Saturday, but I think we have to be wary of that, considering the fact that there will be enough moisture in the air to generate afternoon cloudiness and at least a small chance of a thundershower on any given day... right through the weekend.

Further ahead, it's looking like a mixed bag of sunshine, clouds, moderate humidity levels, and a decent risk of a PM thundershower as we finish off the month.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK has all the forecast details, with other climate info also found on tabs at the top of the page.

another MAY deluge... (am.24.may.16)>

My gauge shows 2.45" (6.2cm) of rain has fallen since just before 4:30am, and it is still raining lightly to moderately at 7 o'clock this morning.  The temperature here at my location in the upper part of town dropped to 53.8F (12.1C) during the past couple of hours, which is the second-coolest temp I've recorded this month.

It looks like we've got a rainy morning ahead... but I think we could see some improvement by this afternoon, though the risk of more thundershower development exists for the next 24-36 hours or so.  The weather system responsible for this latest period of instability and turbulence will move out by late tomorrow, setting us up for a return to warmer and drier summertime weather on Thursday into Friday.

Forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK above, and check back for a more comprehensive update this evening...

cooler with storm threat... (pm.23.may.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 59.2F (15.1C)
High temp: 79.7F (26.5C)
Rainfall: 0.22" (6mm)

It's looking and feeling great out there this evening, with only a few scattered clouds, and a bright sun sinking in the western sky.  The morning started out with sunshine, but it didn't last very long, with rapidly increasing cloudiness by 10:00am, and then thunder, gusty winds and some light showers kicking in not long after 11:00am.  We then had a couple of hours of rain showers, wind, thunder and lightning which finally came to an end shortly after 1:00pm -- with the sun gradually breaking out again around 3:30pm or so.  Temperatures have been all over the place, with the high occurring mid-morning before the clouds rolled in, and the low for the day happening right around noon during those thundershowers.

And our temps will continue fluctuating overnight and on Tuesday, as our air mass battles continue.  There are a few upper-level disturbances rolling through the western Himalayan region, with some pockets of much cooler air in the higher levels of the atmosphere over-running warm and humid air in the surface layers.  This is going to keep things unstable and changeable for the next 48 hours or so, which also means that we'll have to remain aware of the good chance of occasional waves of showers and thunderstorms.  Computer model data does a good job predicting general macro-scale weather features, but not such a good job at nailing specific development of individual thunderstorms, so we'll just have to remain braced for action, especially later tonight through tomorrow (Tues).  A period of stability will try to establish itself late Wednesday through Friday, but then the risk of scattered showers and thundershowers increases again over the weekend.

We've already seen some very warm temperatures so far this season, but it looks like the coming week will average out cooler than we've averaged the last ten to twelve days or so.

If you're interested in monthly averages, daily stats, and forecast specifics, you can check out tabs located at the top of the page...

a changing scenario... (pm.22.may.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 62.1F (16.7C) -- occurred at 5:35pm during rain/hail
High temp: 88.1F (31.2C)
Rainfall: 0.28" (7mm) --updated @ 8:05pm

The sky is still looking very turbulent at 6:30pm, with some thunder rumbling at the moment -- but we only ended up with about 15-20 minutes of actual rain here in the middle of town between about 5:30 and 5:50pm.  There was some hail for a few minutes as well, which brought us a brief period of natural air conditioning.  Otherwise it was a day of hazy sunshine and occasional clouds, with temperatures again surpassing 30ºC, and humidity creeping above 40%.

The mountain thunder machine kicked into gear late this afternoon, and current satellite pics show a chain of thundershowers lined up along the Himalayan ranges from northern Pakistan all the way into central Uttarakhand.  That, in spite of the fact that the overall air mass across most of north India is rather stable.  Just goes to show how the mountain slopes can capitalize on even the smallest disparities in temperatures and pockets of latent moisture in different layers of the atmosphere.  These random thundershowers should settle down overnight, but then we've got a more large-scale period of instability on the way starting tomorrow afternoon, and continuing through Tuesday and perhaps into Wednesday.  A couple of upper-level circulations will ease in from the west, accompanied by some significant cooling aloft.  With this very warm and moderately moist air mass in place, the stage will be set for the potential for some much more intense thunderstorm action, along with a period or two of moderate to heavy rainfall.  There will also be a noticeable cool-down for a couple of days.

Between Wednesday and Thursday the atmosphere will stabilize again, with some drier air sweeping in.  Temperatures will also rebound fairly rapidly, taking us back into the above normal range for the latter part of May.

Check tabs above for more info, including the MAY DAILY STATS and THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

warmth rolls on... (pm.21.may.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 69.7F (20.9C)
High temp: 87.9F (31.1C)
Rainfall: none

It's a warm and hazy evening with some lingering clouds along the mountains.  Satellite pics show isolated showers northwest of us in Jammu & Kashmir, and well to the southeast across central Uttarakhand, but there's been no development anywhere near us today.  We had nearly full sunshine until just after noon, and then only a moderate build-up of cumulus in the vicinity of the Dhauladhars thereafter.  Humidity averaged slightly above 30% this afternoon, with temps back in the range of the warmest of the season and the year.

A generally stable atmosphere will remain with us through Sunday, and maybe into at least the first half of Monday -- keeping our temps extremely warm, and preventing all but the most random, brief, isolated thundershower development from happening in our area.  But we're watching a changing upper-level pattern which will bring in a couple of disturbances from the northwest, along with some significant cooling in the higher levels of the atmosphere.  This transition will occur between late Monday and early Wednesday, and that's when we'll see the best chance of at least a couple of periods of significant thunderstorms and rain.  Temperatures will cool off temporarily, which of course isn't really a bad thing.

But this time of year, a cool-down doesn't normally last for very long, and we expect rebounding temps once again by the latter half of next week, with a drier air mass and more sunshine returning...

Forecast specifics and other local info can be found on tabs across the top of the page.

empty threats?... (pm.20.may.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 69.4F (20.8C)
High temp: 82.0F (27.8C)
Rainfall: trace

Our sky has been looking ominous and threatening since around 2:00pm, and has looked even more scary since around 5:00pm, but other than some very gusty winds at times, occasional lightning and rolling thunder, and a few fleeting very light showers, it hasn't really amounted to much -- as of yet.  All bark and very little bite.  This convective development is very high-based, as we can easily tell by being able to see the peaks of the Dhauladhars... and precipitation has been spotty.  Sunshine was much more limited today, with humidity rising above 50%, and that kept our temps well below expectations.  In fact, it was the "coolest" day since last Thursday, the 12th.

Moisture has surged northwestward into northern India during the past 24 hours, just as a weak disturbance in the upper atmosphere slides in from central Asia.  We were expecting the instability which developed yesterday evening to last through today, but I wasn't expecting such extensive cloudiness -- and on the other hand -- would have expected any thundershower development to produce measurable rain, which has not yet happened.  This convective/thunder stuff should calm down later tonight, but we may still get something in the rain gauge before things stabilize.

A very warm air mass is still in place, so it's a roll of the dice over the weekend as to whether we'll be pushing 90ºF/32ºC again, or perhaps staying several degrees cooler, due to this more humid airmass interacting with the mountains to produce more clouds.  Isolated thundershowers remain a possibility, with a better chance of more significant rainfall between Monday afternoon and Tuesday, as a stronger system moves in.

Peruse the tabs at the top of the page for much more info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK...

going above 90ºF... (pm.19.may.16)>

*Update @ 8:17pm... Our brief shower this evening between 7:00 and 7:30pm didn't give us very much rain, but it did cool things off.  The new low temp (see below) during that shower erased the previous low for the day, which had been the warmest low/min temp since June 2014.  Showers have ended... temps rising again, even at this late hour.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 65.8F (18.8C) -- updated @ 8:15pm
High temp: 90.4F (32.4C)
Rainfall: 0.10" (3mm) --updated at 8:15pm

According to my records, today has been the warmest day at my location in the upper part of McLeod Ganj since June of 2014... both the high and low temp were warmer than I recorded during the entire summer season last year (2015).  Surprisingly, I don't think it's felt all that uncomfortable though, due to the fact that our humidity levels remain quite low.  We have gone up to around 25-28% late this afternoon, but that's still not bad at all.  Although there has been more cloud development along the mountains today, and also more haze in the air, we've still managed to come up with a lot of sunshine.  We'll call it partly cloudy and hazy this evening as dusk starts to set in.

It's been apparent that our air mass is becoming a bit more unstable this afternoon and evening, with slightly cooler air arriving in the higher levels of the atmosphere, and a slight increase in moisture here at the surface.  That has led to more convective development over the mountains, including some isolated very weak thundershower action from Jammu & Kashmir through Himachal into Uttarakhand and Nepal.  This marginal instability will remain with us into Friday, but then it looks like things will stabilize again over the weekend, with only a small chance of some isolated or random shower/thunder development, mainly in the vicinity of the mountains.  A more impressive upper-level system is projected to swing into northern India late Monday through Tuesday, bringing us a better chance of some significant shower and thunderstorm activity.

Temperatures are obviously in full-swing summer mode... and unless we end up getting some significant cloud development, they should stay there through Sunday or Monday.  Overall, we should see a general cooling trend by the middle of next week, with that better chance of some showers.

Lots of other info can be found on tabs across the top of the page, including MAY DAILY STATS and THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK...

from warm to hot... (pm.18.may.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 69.6F (20.9C)
High temp: 89.6F (32.0C)
Rainfall: none

The airport in Gaggal is visible from many parts of McLeod -- and down there the temperature reached 101ºF/38ºC this afternoon.  It wasn't nearly that hot here, but still, I recorded a new high temp for the season and the year which was just shy of 90ºF, and exactly spot-on 32ºC.  Once again sunshine prevailed, with only some minor cumulus development along the Dhauladhars this afternoon, and humidity just barely 20%.  It's a bit hazy now, otherwise we have clear skies as the sun sinks toward the western horizon.

This month of May has been an interesting one.  We started off with a spell of unusually warm weather for a few days, followed by a very wet and unseasonably cool period which lasted from about the 4th until the 11th of the month, which then rapidly turned into a stretch of basically dry and unseasonably warm weather again during this past week or so.  This is why i consider monthly 'normals' to be kind of a joke, since it takes a lot of ups and downs to create an 'average' or 'normal' statistic for the record books.  On any given month, things can (and do) often go to extremes for a few days at a time.

Anyway, we continue to find ourselves in a very stable situation, though there are hints of some instability returning as early as tomorrow, and then again for a while next week.  There are also indications of a return of at least moderate moisture, flowing in from the east-southeast, which will give us a bump in humidity over the course of the coming 5-6 days or so.  What this means is that we could see a random thundershower at some point, with an even better chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms by Monday night or Tuesday.  Summertime temperatures, running near the warmest/hottest of the season will remain with us at least through the weekend...

Forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab, with lots of other information on those tabs above as well.

temps high, humidity low... (pm.17.may.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 66.9F (19.4C)
High temp: 88.0F (31.1C)
Rainfall: none

The fragments of flat cumulus clouds that hovered along the mountain slopes for much of the afternoon have now dissipated, leaving us with totally clear skies across the area this evening.  Our mid-May sunshine delivered another very warm day -- the third-warmest of the season and the year -- with humidity remaining very low.  Even with these very warm temps, humidity just barely hitting 20% keeps it from feeling too uncomfortable.

Our atmosphere is the very picture of stability lately, thanks to a near-perfect balance of temperatures from the surface up through the mid- and high levels.  There's also an absence of moisture to work with.  Although there continue to be some weak ripples aloft, riding southeastward on the upper-level flow, there's just not enough 'juice' to kick up any shower action.  A lot of things have to fall in line to create this kind of stability, and at least for now, we've got it.  By Thursday night or Friday we may see a little better risk of a random thundershower somewhere around the area, but it looks like we may have to wait until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week to get a more respectable probability of some rain.

Temperatures are running above normal, and are closer to what we would expect during the first week of June.  But actually, it looks like we could be reaching 90ºF/32ºC sometime between tomorrow and the weekend, which is close to the hottest it ever gets at my recording spot in the upper part of town.  Thankfully, the humidity should stay rather low, otherwise it would be feeling really nasty...

Check out THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, MAY DAILY STATS, and other tabs above for more info.

very warm all week... (pm.16.may.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 66.4F (19.1C)
High temp: 85.8F (29.9C)
Rainfall: 0.01" (less than 1mm)

A cumulonimbus cloud is visible almost directly north of us right now, indicative of some lingering shower/thunder action along the mountains this evening.  We caught a little of that this afternoon -- between about 1:30 and 2:30pm -- but the rain was barely enough to register a measurement in the gauge, and the whole thing was over very quickly.  Still, it was nice to get a little break in the middle of another day featuring plenty of sunshine and warmth.  My high temp was down a bit from yesterday, but not all that much.

One of those little ripples of upper-level energy that we seem to always be talking about is passing across Himalayan north India at the moment, and will keep at least a small chance of a passing shower or thundershower in the forecast overnight.  Otherwise, a rather quiet northwesterly flow aloft will dominate the weather pattern throughout the week, with a dry air mass in place in the middle and lower levels of the atmosphere.  This is the kind of pattern that allows heat to build in the surface layers, and that will keep our temperatures running above normal all week long, with a chance of us nudging the 90ºF/32ºF mark by Thursday or Friday.  That means it's going to be 100ºF/38ºC or a bit above down towards Gaggal and Kangra.  Full-on summer.

It looks like we could be free and clear of the thundershower threat between tomorrow (Tue) and Thursday, with rising chances of some shower development on Friday evening into Saturday.  Even then, I think we're talking about very isolated activity, but of course we'll watch it day-by-day.

You can check out tabs at the top of the page for a lot more local weather information, including daily stats and THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

new warmest of 2016... (pm.15.may.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 67.6F (19.8C)
High temp: 88.9F (31.6C)
Rainfall: none

It is rare indeed, especially outside of the winter season, to see 100% clear skies as the sun goes down -- but that's exactly what we have this evening.  The sun was in full force all day, except for a few clouds along the mountains during the early morning, and again some cumulus percolating along the mountain slopes during the afternoon.  My high temperature was the new warmest for the month, the season, and the year -- and believe it or not, was only 0.5ºF shy of the warmest I recorded during all of last year (2015).  Humidity has been low... not much above 25% throughout the day.

The huge bubble of very warm air that has pretty much taken over all of northwest and northcentral India the last three days has been more aggressive than any of the models were hinting at last week, and the stabilization of the atmosphere has also happened much more rapidly than expected.  No complaints, considering the fact that we are so far above normal with regard to rainfall for the month of May -- but this blast of heat will take some getting used to.

There is not a zero chance of a random thundershower over the course of the coming days, so don't be surprised if something pops up, but the main issue will be the summertime heat which does not look like it will be abating much at all as we progress through the new week.

Forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab located on the top of the page...

this rapid warm-up... (pm.14.may.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 66.0F (18.9C)
High temp: 87.3F (30.7C)
Rainfall: none

This evening we have a nice view of a batch of thundershowers to our east and northeast -- just beyond the Dhauladhars.  Otherwise, we're dealing with mostly sunny skies as our Saturday comes to an end.  Apart from the thundershower development over the mountains east-northeast of us this afternoon, the summer sunshine was in control, with humidity hovering in the 28-35% range for most of the day.  At my location in the upper part of town, I recorded the second-warmest temperature of the month, which also happens to be the second-warmest of the season and the year.  We've quickly bounced back above normal for this stage of the summer season the last couple of days.

48 hours ago, on Thursday evening, we had some thundershowers of our own overhead, but the last two evenings, the shower/thunder development has remained north and east of us.  It seems that this uniformly warmer air mass has gained ground and taken control, pushing the battle line away from us for now.  There are still hints of at least a mentionable chance of a period of thundershowers between now and Monday night, so we can't totally forget about it -- but overall, things have definitely stabilized compared to what we were dealing with for the vast majority of the past week.  Right now it looks like that risk of showers will diminish even more by the middle of the new week.

Temperatures -- well above normal, and barring a significant round of thunderstorms that potentially sinks us, we should stay very warm over the course of the coming several days or more.  We could even be knocking on the door of 90ºF/32ºC which usually only happens a few times during either May or June each year.

Stay tuned... and check tabs above for plenty of other information.....

summer variables... (pm.13.may.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 63.5F (17.5C)
High temp: 84.2F (29.0C)
Rainfall: none

Temperatures went crazy across the area today... warming very dramatically and much more aggressively than expected.  My high temp on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center was just over 8ºF (4.5ºC) warmer than yesterday, and the warmest I've recorded since the 2nd of May.  We had nearly 100% sunshine all morning, though there was a respectable amount of cumulus development along the mountains during the mid-day and afternoon hours.  Humidity dropped significantly today as well, and fell to around 30% during the mid- to late afternoon.  As sunset approaches, it's partly cloudy.

But things may not be as calm and quiet as they appear.  Current satellite pics indicate a cluster of showers and thundershowers to our northwest, extending from extreme northeastern Pakistan through southwestern Jammu & Kashmir, and just now trying to cross into extreme northwestern Himachal.  With daytime heating coming to an end, these thundershowers could quickly fizzle out, but we stand a chance of catching a bit of that action later this evening.

Mid-summer heat is building across the heart of the Indian sub-continent, and it looks like we'll experience some of that ourselves during the next several days.  However, there's still some moisture remaining here along the mountain slopes, and also some upper-level energy rippling along the west-northwesterly flow aloft.  So -- we have to remain aware of the risk of a period of thundershowers at some point, even though it's going to be feeling summery again.

SUMMER INTO MONSOON (tab above) talks about our general weather scenario this time of year, and THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK has all the forecast details...

continuing threats... (pm.12.may.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 61.3F (16.3C) -- updated at 8:30pm
High temp: 75.9F (24.4C)
Rainfall: 0.11" (3mm) -- updated at 8:30pm

We find ourselves this evening right on the southwest fringes of a large area of thunderstorms which extend from southwestern Jammu & Kashmir into northcentral Himachal Pradesh.  It's an interesting view to the north and northeast at the moment.  Otherwise we've come up with a fairly nice day, with plenty of sunshine gracing our skies until the late morning.  Then, there was a rapid and impressive explosion of cloudiness along the mountains, but as far as I'm aware, there has been no rain in our immediate area (yet).  I did hear thunder up-mountain from us between about 1:45 and 3:15pm, though, and am just now hearing it again.  Temperatures today were significantly warmer than they were yesterday, but still a few degrees cooler than normal for the season.

That thunderstorm activity to our north-northeast this evening is tangible evidence of the remaining instability and volatility of our weather pattern.  We're still perched on the edge of a large batch of unseasonably moist air, and there are still numerous weak disturbances sliding in from the west-northwest along the upper-level flow.  That means a period of showers and thunderstorms could develop/occur/move in almost any time of the day or night -- with the best chances remaining during the mid-afternoon into the overnight hours.  The whole scenario could be quite changeable with some dramatic swings back and forth between inclement and calm conditions... so just be prepared.

Along with that risk of showers/thunder, there are more signs of a warming trend through the weekend, and then finally, a return to a somewhat less humid air mass by the middle of next week.

If you haven't done so already, check tabs above for plenty of other information, and peruse the archives on the right-hand column for daily posts going all the way back to 2010...

still an active pattern... (pm.11.may.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 57.7F (14.3C)
High temp: 69.3F (20.7C)
Rainfall: 0.60" (1.5cm)

We've been able to partake of a much-needed break in the action this afternoon and evening, after a very stormy, wet and dreary 24 hours previous.  Yet another round of thundershowers broke out very early this morning, delivering an additional dose of significant rainfall, but most of that came to an end just before 5:30am.  We did have a couple of fleeting sprinkles of rain during the rest of the morning, as our skies remained totally cloudy.  The first glimpses of sun appeared shortly after noon, and then by 2:30 or 3:00pm we were enjoying mostly sunny skies.  The PM sun wasn't enough to warm things up very much, however... my high temp on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center was the coolest I've recorded since the 11th of April, exactly one month ago.

The computer model charts and data sets are all over the place with regard to what the coming 3-5 days hold for us.  There's consistency in the fact that we're going to have more waves and periods of showers and thunderstorms between now and the weekend, but the inconsistency concerns the timing.  It's looking like we still have a good chance of measurable rain each and every 24 hour period, with some spells of heavy rain as well.  But we should also be able to squeeze out many hours of dry and quiet conditions, in between bouts of showers/thunder.  We're now sitting at 2.5 TIMES the normal amount of rain for the month of May, so I know I am not at all excited about the prospects for more.

Humidity will stay well above normal for mid-May, as temperatures continue to average out below normal.  There are signs of rising temps over the weekend into early next week, so we'll keep an eye on that.

Check tabs above for lots of other local weather info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

much more than enough... (pm.10.may.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 59.2F (15.1C)
High temp: 77.7F (25.4C)
Rainfall: 1.35" (3.4cm) -- updated at 8pm

Currently there's light rain in progress, with some random thunder as well.  We've had rainfall in varying degrees of intensity this afternoon, and even a few periods of heavy rain between about 2:45 and 4:00pm, and again just during the past half hour or so (6:00 to 6:30pm).  There have also been some impressive episodes of hail during the spells of heavier rain.  Hazy sunshine this morning did give us a few hours of warm and humid conditions, but that was all over by about 2:00pm.

It's only the 10th of May, and I've already measured much more than DOUBLE the normal amount of rain for the entire month.  The vast majority of that came on the evening of the 5th (last Thursday), and this afternoon/evening.  For several days we've been talking about an extremely moist air mass for this time of year which has been creeping northeastward from the Arabian Sea and pushing up against the Himalayan ranges of north India.  Simultaneously, the flow in the upper-levels of the atmosphere has been coming in from the northwest, and is delivering some little disturbances/circulations which are riding over the top of this very moist air mass in the middle and lower levels.  With the steep mountain slopes acting as a trigger, we've seen the outbreak of widespread clusters of thunderstorms from western Jammu & Kashmir into central Himachal Pradesh today.

Unfortunately, the general pattern is going to remain the same throughout the week, which means we'll have to remain braced for shower and thunderstorm development each and every day, with some very heavy downpours (and hail) quite likely on occasion.  It looks like most of the action should occur during the afternoon/evening hours, so we should still come up with some sunshine here and there, and quiet interludes, in the midst of it all.  Humidity will stay unseasonably high, with temperatures running on the low side of normal for what is fast becoming the middle of May...

Check tabs above for lots of other info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, and a brand new post, SUMMER INTO MONSOON.

muggy for early may... (pm.09.may.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 64.8F (18.2C)
High temp: 77.9F (25.5C)
Rainfall: 0.09" (2mm) -- updated @ 8:05pm

It's cloudy, thunder is rumbling, and we have some random light sprinkles/showers of rain around the area this evening.  There was also a short period of rain showers during the 2 o'clock hour this afternoon -- but so far, the rainfall tally has been barely measurable.  Humidity was up into the 50-55% range today, with hazy sunshine this morning giving way to mostly cloudy skies by about 1:00pm.  Although it was still not even 80ºF/27ºC today, it's felt quite muggy and sticky with the rising humidity.

The latest satellite pics show a few clusters of thundershowers strung out along the Himalayas -- from Srinagar all the way to western Nepal.  They should be dissipating this evening as the sun sets and the atmosphere cools, however.  An expansive area of warm air in the upper-atmosphere is sprawled from the northern Arabian Sea into the northwest third of India, with a weak northwesterly flow aloft riding along the northern edge of it.  There is also a very impressive amount of moisture in this air mass, for this time of year, and it is going to be nudged up and along the foothills and ranges of the western Himalayas all week long.  With daytime heating and the help of some minor ripples in the upper-level flow, the stage is set for an increasing risk of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms during the coming several days -- with some heavy downpours possible on any given day, starting tomorrow.

It's definitely not normal to see this much moisture availability during the first part of May, so humidity will be running higher than we're used to experiencing this time of year.  Limited sunshine and the higher humidity are holding temps down a bit, but any spells of sun will keep the mugginess and sultriness in the air.

You can check forecast details all the way into early next week on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

sun, clouds, rising humidity... (pm.08.may.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 64.2F (17.9C)
High temp: 77.3F (25.2C)
Rainfall: none

It is extremely hazy across the area this evening, with a layer of mid-level clouds as well.  We started off with a good amount of sunshine this morning, though cloud development along the mountains was evident again right from the start.  That cloudiness pretty much took over as the afternoon wore on, and once again, it kept our temps from rising as much as we were expecting.  It was 93ºF/34ºC at the airport in Gaggal, however, which shows just how close to us that really warm air is lurking.  Satellite pics show some isolated thundershowers from southwestern Jammu & Kashmir into western Himachal right now, but there has been no sign of any of that in our immediate area up til now.

The upper-level pattern from southwest into southcentral Asia during the next several days looks more like late May or early June than early-mid May.  Very warm air aloft is staking territory, as a very moist batch of air in the lower and mid-levels of the atmosphere oozes northeastward from the Arabian Sea.  This will keep the sun-cloud battles going strong... it will create rising humidity levels... and it will also eventually bring us a good chance of some waves of significant shower and thunderstorm action.  Starting on Tuesday, we're going to have a better than 50/50 chance of seeing an impressive period of rain/thunder each and every 24 hour period -- and that should last all the way through next weekend.

Temperatures will probably average out on the low side of normal for this stage of May, due to the unusually high humidity, but a few hours of sun will make it feel very muggy and unpleasant.  This May is shaping up to be a strange one, it appears...

Check the daily stats for the month, along with THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK on tabs at the top of the page.

waiting for a warm-up... (pm.07.may.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 61.2F (16.2C)
High temp: 74.8F (23.8C) -- updated
Rainfall: none

Today's high temperature fell well short of expectations, due to cloudiness which hung along the mountains all day long -- it seems the sun was playing hide-and-seek continuously here at our elevation along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars.  It was a pleasant enough day, though humidity in the 40-50% range was much higher than we were dealing with several days ago.  Skies are partly cloudy as sunset approaches, with some isolated thundershowers well east-northeast of us.

Dramatic warming is taking place in the upper-levels of the atmosphere, but we're stuck in a bit of an inversion layer, with temperatures lagging behind what is happening aloft.  I'm still pretty confident that we will eventually participate in that major warm-up, so we'll try for it again tomorrow, and also on Monday.  There is a risk of a couple of thundershowers popping up somewhere around the area between now and Monday evening, but our atmosphere will be fairly stable for the most part.

Starting on Tuesday, things are looking downright bizarre for this time of year.  A massive area of moisture will gather to our southwest, and press up along the north Indian Himalayas, as a few weak disturbances drift along the west-northwesterly flow in the upper-atmosphere.  That means we'll have at least a 50/50 chance of a round or two of showers and thunderstorms each day, all the way into next Friday or Saturday, with some moderate to heavy rainfall amounts possible.  As I've mentioned, the heavy rain earlier this week has already put us well above normal for May, so this would not be something we particularly need.

Follow THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (above) for forecast specifics...

not at all boring... (pm.06.may.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 55.1F (12.8C)
High temp: 75.2F (24.0C) -- updated
Rainfall: 0.02" (less than 1mm) -- updated

There are a couple of clear patches overhead and just to the south, but we'd have to call it mostly cloudy during this hour before sunset.  It's been a crazy 24 hour period -- with that massive, extended period of heavy rain showers and thunderstorms last night between about 6:20 and 10:30pm, the gorgeous sunny skies this morning, and then some tentative light sprinkles and showers during the mid-afternoon.  Even though temperatures are much lower than they were several days ago, we have a lot more moisture in the air now, so it gets kind of sultry and steamy when the sun is out.

The average/normal rainfall for the entire month of May is just 2.30" (5.8cm), but according to my rain gauge on Tushita Road in the upper part of town, we've had just over 4" (10cm) since Wednesday afternoon.  Has it been a fluke, or is this a sign that we might be in for a much wetter than normal May??  Time will tell.  At least in the near term, it looks like we're in for some semblance of stabilization, meaning, the atmosphere will be less prone to stir up the kind of really dramatic thunderstorm action we saw last night.  HOWEVER, there is an unusually high amount of moisture in this air mass, compared to what we normally deal with in early May, and that means any random/isolated thundershowers that DO develop could be capable of surprising us with a significant amount of rain.

Much warmer air aloft is streaming in now, and that could/should lead to a moderation in our temperatures over the weekend -- through about Monday.  But computer models are advertising a good chance of more scattered showers and thunderstorms for much of next week as a fresh batch of moisture surges in from the south-southwest.  Definitely a lot to watch as we progress deeper into our Himalayan summer...

Keep track of THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (above) for all the forecast details.

wildly swinging... (pm.05.may.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 51.4F (10.8C)
High temp: 75.4F (24.1C)
Rainfall: 3.16" (8.0cm) --updated thru midnight

Thundershowers are threatening once again this evening -- it's cloudy, and even at this moment the rain is picking up here in the main market of McLeod Ganj.  Our weather today has been highly variable, as expected, with clouds and cool temperatures until around 10:00am when the sun popped out nicely and delivered a stretch of very nice conditions which have lasted until just the last hour or so.  There was only a trace of rain since midnight, but that is obviously changing at this moment -- check back for rainfall updates later tonight.

The remnants of the upper-level disturbance/circulation center responsible for our crazy and very changeable weather the last couple of days is now straddling the Pakistan/Rajasthan border.  It's quickly losing steam, but there's obviously enough energy left to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms across parts of northwest and central India.  The general trend will be toward greater stability during the coming 48 hours or so, but that doesn't mean we can totally forget about the risk of some isolated shower/thunder activity -- mainly during the afternoon hours.  As high pressure aloft attempts to build in, we should see temperatures heading upward once again, especially by Sunday into Monday.

As we look further ahead... the upper-level pattern should be rather quiet, but there is an unusual amount of moisture showing up in the lower and mid-levels of the atmosphere next week.  That should keep us dealing with a chance of a round of thunderstorms almost each and every day, with temps highly dependent on that sun/rain cycle.

You can always find the forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

quite a cleansing... (pm.04.may.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 54.0F (12.2C)
High temp: 78.6F (25.9C)
Rainfall: 0.88" (2.2cm) -- updated total thru midnight

Well... I think this is definitely settling the dust.  We have mainly light rain showers in progress at the moment, with cloudy skies, occasionally gusty winds, and a rumble or two of thunder from time to time.  With all that sunshine this morning into the early afternoon, it looked questionable as to whether we would get any more rain today, but a sprawling area of thundershowers broke out right overhead starting around 2:30pm, and we've seen several periods of rain, thunder, gusty winds and even a bit of small hail since then.  Temperatures have been on a roller-coaster ride -- the high occurred around 1:30pm, but then we plummeted about 24ºF/13ºC as the first round of thundershowers got going (see high/low stats above).

An upper-level circulation center is just pushing into west-central Pakistan from Afghanistan this evening, as a stream of tropical moisture gets drawn northeastward ahead of it.  The increasing instability of our atmosphere here along the Dhauladhars first triggered some showers a couple of hours before dawn this morning, but the outbreak of thundershowers this afternoon/evening has been much more impressive.  It looks like things will slowly calm down overnight, but we could see another flare-up of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow (Thu), even though the upper-level circulation itself is projected to weaken.  There will be some gradual stabilization occurring as we head into the weekend, but with lingering moisture hanging around, along with the heat of the early May sunshine, it's going to be hard to remove the risk of mainly PM thundershower development.

Temperatures will be highly variable during the coming several days -- we should pop above normal for this stage of the summer season with the help of several hours of sunshine, but then plunge into the chilly zone during a period of thundershowers.  In other words... it seems we need to be prepared for everything.

Get a look at MAY DAILY STATS, THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and other info on tabs above.

hoping for some rain... (pm.03.may.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp 68.5F (20.3C)
High temp: 76.2F (24.6C)
Rainfall: trace

Our sky remains mostly cloudy just before sunset this evening -- and we would have to categorize the entire day as 'mostly cloudy', with only the most fleeting glimpses of sun.  It's also been very smoggy, with low visibility throughout the day.  Due in large part to that lack of sunshine, there was very little movement on the thermometer, providing us with a cooler day -- the coolest in fact since the 24th of April.  I heard some faint rumbles of thunder just before 3:30pm, and then there were just a few sprinkles of rain between 3:30 and 4:00pm.

Our recent streak of unseasonably warm weather has obviously come to a dead halt, as a changing upper-level pattern and an influx of moisture join forces.  The main energy and circulation in the upper atmosphere is now over northwestern Afghanistan, and will wobble in our direction during the next 36 hours or so, before dissipating.  At the same time, we've got a fairly impressive blob of moisture from the Arabian Sea surging into northwest and northcentral India.  The risk of some scattered shower/thunder action is on the increase right now, but according to all the available info/data, it still looks like the rainfall will indeed be scattered and short-lived for the most part.  We're now on our tenth day in a row without measurable precipitation, the sky is full of dust and smoke and haze, so it would definitely be nice to get enough of a rain shower to clean things up and settle the dust.  Let's hope.

It's really hard to call the proportion of clouds to sun during the next several days, with such a disturbed air mass in place.  Temps will approach or surpass 80ºF/27.5ºC if we can get several hours of sun, but we'll be stuck significantly below that if the clouds don't break.  Looking further ahead, another building ridge of high pressure will probably usher in another big warm-up over the weekend...

Check tabs across the top of the page for more.

genuine stuff of summer... (pm.02.may.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 69.4F (20.8C)
High temp: 88.5F (31.4C)
Rainfall: none

High clouds are increasing from the west-southwest early this evening, otherwise we have hazy skies across the area.  It's been yet another day featuring a predominance of hazy sunshine, with only a few scattered cumulus clouds in the vicinity of the mountain peaks during the afternoon hours.  And for the third consecutive day, we've achieved a new high temp for the season and the year.  In fact, today's high was about 9ºF (5ºC) above the normal/average high for the 2nd of May -- and more in line with what we would expect during the last week of this month.  In other words, we're experiencing mid-summer warmth earlier than we normally do.

But it's looking like we've peaked -- at least for this first surge of genuine summertime heat this year -- with a changing pattern kicking in for the remainder of the week.  A couple of things are happening.  First, an upper-level disturbance and circulation center over eastern Iran is heading our way.  Second, a batch of tropical moisture is being drawn northeastward from the Arabian Sea into parts of Pakistan and northwest India.  This will set us up for increasing clouds during the coming 12-18 hours, and then an increasing chance of some scattered shower and thunderstorm action between late Tuesday and Friday.  As I mentioned last night at this time, we're not talking about lengthy, all-day rains.  What we need to be prepared for is a better probability of off-and-on rain showers and possible thunderstorms, in the midst of alternating clouds and sunshine.  Humidity has been very low for a long time now, and I think we'll notice the rising moisture in the air as the week goes along.

Temperatures should settle back closer to normal for the first part of May, but the increasing humidity may counter the effects of that.  Anyway, I think it's clear that summertime weather has now entrenched itself in Himachal Pradesh for 2016...

Check out all the forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.