shop closing...

The weathergeek is going into shut-down mode starting today (Monday), with only random updates during the next few months, if and when I am able.

There are archives on the right side of this main page containing more than two thousand posts over the last four and a half years, which you can peruse for some perspective on weather conditions for dates you might be curious about.

super-dry atmosphere... (pm.12.oct.14)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 60.3F (15.7C)
High temp: 70.3F (21.3C)
Rainfall: none

As if it couldn't get any better... today seemed to outshine the last three days, with a very minor amount of afternoon cumulus cloud development over the mountains providing any competition for the beautiful autumn sunshine.  Also, I recorded a humidity reading as low as 20% late this morning, which is the lowest I can remember since perhaps a random day or two late last May.

With gorgeous weather here in our neighborhood, it's hard to relate to the fact that the east-central Indian coast is being battered by a severe tropical cyclone.  Cyclone Hudhud is now inland, and will be rapidly weakening during the next 12-24 hours as it drifts to the northwest.  I am amazed at all the wild disagreement between the various sets of computer model data -- some keeping the residual moisture associated with this system well to our southeast, and some bringing it right to our doorstep.  At the same time, we've got a fairly strong upper-level system dropping in from the northwest, so it's going to be interesting to see how all of these converging elements affect us during the Tuesday to Thursday time frame.

From the current vantage point, I think we need to be braced for an increase in humidity along with an increase in clouds by Tuesday, along with the return of the risk of some shower and/or thundershower development during the mid-week period.  Of course we could remain high and dry, but it's smart to be aware of the potential for some changes in the days ahead...

close to perfection... (pm.11.oct.14)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 58.8F (14.9C)
High temp: 69.8F (21.0C)
Rainfall: none

For the third evening in a row, we have clear skies and pleasantly cool temperatures just after dark.  It's also been the third picture-perfect day -- with only some afternoon mountain cumulus clouds putting a dent in otherwise totally sunny skies.  Humidity was even lower today, as it dipped into the 35-40% range at times this morning.

This is the kind of classic October weather that we all look forward to, and which ranks among the most pleasant times of year here along the front slopes of the north Indian Himalayas.  The much drier flow of air from central Asia we've been enjoying since Wednesday night and Thursday is responsible for this -- having pushed all remnants of tropical moisture way into extreme eastern and southern portions of India.

It's still looking dry and quiet for another couple of days, but then there are some question marks lurking as early as Tuesday.  The tropical cyclone now approaching the east-central coast of India will drift west-northwestward during the next 48 hours or so, its center reaching the middle of the sub-continent.  Computer models are showing some divergent solutions thereafter, so it remains to be seen whether or not the northwestern fringes of this dying system might affect us sometime between Tuesday and Thursday.  At any rate, that potential interruption in our recent super-nice autumn weather should be gone by next Friday...

weekend looking good... (pm.10.oct.14)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 58.8F (14.9C)
High temp: 70.3F (21.3C)
Rainfall: none

Apart from just a few leftover cumulus clouds over the mountains, we have clear skies just after sunset this evening.  It's been another stunner of a day, with lots of autumn sunshine, along with a moderate build-up of mountain clouds this afternoon.  Humidity remains in the pleasant category (mainly 40-55%), with temperatures running close to or slightly above normal for this time of year.

Computer models continue to show further drying of the atmosphere over the weekend, as a general west-northwesterly flow dominates in the mid- and upper-levels.  We nearly always get a turn to south-southeasterly winds during the daytime here along the front slopes of the mountains, and that channels whatever moisture remains in our air mass uphill -- condensing it out in the form of clumps of cumulus clouds.  Apart from that phenomenon, we should continue to see lots of sunshine during the coming two or three days.

It would be nice to say that tropical moisture isn't going to be making a return again this year, but I can't.  This bit of uncertainty is due to a large and powerful tropical cyclone spinning away over the Bay of Bengal.  By Tuesday, what remains of that system will be located squarely over the center of the Indian sub-continent... starting to make a turn to the north.  Right now it appears that the best chance of a return to saturated conditions and even some fairly widespread heavy rains would be further south and east of us, but plenty can change during the next five days.

undeniably brilliant... (pm.09.oct.14)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 58.6F (14.8C)
High temp: 69.3F (20.7C)
Rainfall: none

What's left of mountain cumulus clouds are dissipating rapidly just after sunset this evening... at the end of a downright gorgeous October day.  The average humidity reading today has been about 45%, and that's by far the lowest since way back in late May before the first traces of tropical moisture started to appear.  There was that cumulus development over the mountains, starting around 11:00am, but it remained pretty tame, and allowed us to enjoy a very sunny day here in McLeod.

If the computer models have any handle at all on this situation, then we can expect even drier air to continue flowing in during the next couple of days.  That should provide us with generally sunny skies, along with very pleasant humidity levels and seasonably comfortable temperatures.  If you've spent much time here at all, you know that our afternoons can often surprise us with sudden rapid cloud development and even random showers/thunder, but at this point, the risk of that happening looks to be small.  I'm trying not to get too overconfident!

You may have heard about a tropical cyclone over the Bay of Bengal that is heading toward the east-central Indian coastline.  Moisture associated with that system may threaten us by the middle of next week, but at this point it seems that most of its effects will remain well to our south and east.

humidity way down... (am.09.oct.14)>

The humidity reading at sunrise this morning is 47% -- and the sky is 100% clear.  I've recorded no rainfall overnight, along with a low temperature of 58.6F (14.8C).

There's going to be a lot of sunshine for us to enjoy this morning, but the big question (as always) will be what to expect as the afternoon unfolds.  The series of upper-level disturbances that delivered about an inch and a half of rain, strong and gusty winds, and the first snowfall of the season on the Dhauladhars the last 48 hours has also pulled in a nice batch of much drier central Asian air in its wake.  We've got the kind of brisk west-northwesterly flow in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere that effectively eats away at what's left of the tropical moisture remaining stuck along the mountain slopes -- but the real test will be to see what kind of cloud development might occur (or not occur) anytime between about noon and 4-5pm.

The overall pattern looks to be the most calm, quiet and dry we've had the pleasure to enjoy in recent months -- through the weekend and into Monday or Tuesday of next week.  I really hope there are no major monkey-wrenches thrown into the situation... here in our very fickle weather neighborhood on the southwestern slopes of the Dhauladhars it seems there are often surprises.  Let's hope for the best!!

a changing scenario... (pm.08.oct.14)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 49.5F (9.7C)
High temp: 66.6F (19.2C)
24 hour rainfall: 1.24" (3.1cm)

We have a broken layer of high clouds across the area just as the sky goes dark this evening -- but it's been another day of sudden and radical swings between sun, clouds and fog.  There was actually a very good amount of sun until the early afternoon, but then some thick clouds and fog developed, along with some brief light rain showers during the late afternoon.  Then the sun popped out again for awhile as it was heading for the western horizon.  Nearly all of our measurable rainfall during the past 24 hours occurred during the nasty thunderstorm episode in the middle of the night.

The dramatic changes occurring in our upper-level pattern have translated into lots of instability in the mid- and lower-levels of the atmosphere.  Circulations way up there above 15,000ft contain by far the coldest air of this new fall/winter season, and as they've tracked across the western Himalayan region and over the lingering moisture which has been stuck here for so long, we've seen a few waves of showers and thunderstorms.  You may have noticed the new snow on the Dhauladhars this morning -- the first of the season.

Tomorrow will be an important day.  Because -- in the wake of these recent disturbances and large-scale pattern shift, we're going to see if the stubborn leftover tropical moisture of recent weeks has been displaced.  Or not.  Computer models show a much drier air mass in place starting tomorrow, and continuing through the weekend into the early part of next week.  We'll see if we can actually come up with a significantly greater amount of daily sunshine... and a significantly LESS amount of afternoon/evening clouds and fog.

landmark events... (am.08.oct.14)>

Those thundershowers in northern Pakistan that I said would die overnight obviously DIDN'T.!  In fact, they intensified into a large area of very strong thunderstorms and swept across parts of J&K and northern Himachal -- driven by the strongest jet stream winds we've yet seen this autumn.  Those brisk jet stream winds were carried down to the surface, in part, delivering very high wind gusts on the back side of the area of thunderstorms.  I have 1.24" (3.1cm) in my rain gauge here in the upper part of town -- and I recorded a low temp of 49.5F (9.7C) during the storms, which is the coolest temperature since last spring.  Humidity this morning has dropped to 59%.

All of that was a rude awakening, giving us a heads-up that our atmosphere is indeed radically shifting gears.  The upper-level disturbances currently sliding in from the west-northwest contain a taste of fall/winter dynamic energy -- and as they encounter this stubborn leftover tropical moisture in the low-levels of the atmosphere, it has created some fireworks.  But as we've been anticipating for a few days now -- the other side of the equation is the fact that the driest batch of air in more than four months will be settling across north India in the wake of these disturbances.

It's possible that another round or two of showers and thunderstorms could develop later today into tonight, but then it looks like things will calm down and dry out dramatically as we progress through the latter half of the week.  Right now, the weekend is looking fantastic...

fundamental realignment... (pm.07.oct.14)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 55.8F (13.2C) -- at 2:20pm
High temp: 69.9F (21.1C)
Rainfall: 0.23" (6mm)

With the nearly full moon rising into mostly clear skies, we have one of the nicest evenings in recent memory happening for us.  Today has been another day of radical variability -- with plenty of sunshine this morning giving way to mostly cloudy skies and a period of fairly thick fog, which in turn led to a period of thundershowers during the 1:45 to 3:00pm range.  All of that was followed by rapid clearing that has left us with a very nice late afternoon and evening.  Temperatures swung dramatically as well... in response to the sun/clouds/rain.

Last evening I mentioned that we had a couple of upper-level disturbances on the way... and the first of those rippled across Himachal Pradesh this afternoon.  We're finally seeing some much drier air in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere beginning to filter into northern India -- and the cooler and drier air aloft overrunning lingering moisture at the surface is what stirred up our round of healthy thundershowers this afternoon.  But in the wake of those showers, we've gotten a taste of the drier air mass to come.

The next disturbance is over northern Pakistan this evening, and has triggered a large area of thundershowers up there.  Most of that activity should die overnight, but as the disturbance itself drifts across our area tomorrow (Wed), we may see more shower/thunder development.  The good news is that all of the available data continues to show a truly different kind of air mass settling across most of northwestern India by Thursday -- and this time it could signal a lasting turn toward drier/less humid conditions for us.

stagnant for now... (pm.06.oct.14)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 63.0F (17.2C)
High temp: 70.4F (21.3C)
Rainfall: none

It's mostly cloudy and foggy at this exact moment... but there has again been a lot of sudden variability between sun, clouds, and fog since the noon hour.  We started off with fantastic sunshine this morning -- but with humidity remaining above 80%, it's just a matter of time before the cloud/fog show begins.  I heard some thunder between 2:00 and 2:30pm, and satellite pics show a cluster of thundershowers to our east, but we never had any rain today in the immediate McLeod Ganj vicinity.  Another note -- today's high temp (see above) was the warmest I've recorded since the 23rd of September.

Today was the first full day since our official monsoon withdrawal declaration... but that technicality didn't seem to matter.  We've still had to endure our daily dose of thick clouds and fog during the PM hours.  There are some changes taking shape, however, which could jolt us out of this very stagnant pattern of the past few weeks.  In the near term, there will be a couple of upper-level disturbances dropping in from the northwest between tomorrow and Wednesday evening, which could give us a better chance of some scattered shower and thundershower action as they roll over and above this lingering moist air in the lower levels.  But then we've got a fairly respectable-looking push of drier and slightly cooler air projected to sweep across the area starting on Thursday.

Totally removing this residual moisture along the mountain slopes is always a tough task, but computer models are showing the driest air mass of the season settling in by this weekend.  You can check on forecast details and other info on tabs at the top of the page...

the official word... (pm.05.oct.14)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 61.3F (16.3C)
High temp: 69.3F (20.7C)
Rainfall: trace

An official monsoon withdrawal declaration has come down from the India Met Department today.  All of HImachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab and Uttarakhand have been cleared.  Of course the "official" declaration of monsoon withdrawal is kind of an arbitrary thing, as the same lingering moisture issues remain with us here in the hills and mountain slopes of northern India.  But -- it's a sign that the overall pattern is indeed shifting.

We have an interesting week ahead of us, with some changes that could bring in a significantly drier air mass by Thursday into Friday.  In the meantime, we're still going to be dealing with this sun/cloud/fog variability, with at least a mentionable risk of a period of showers, mainly during the afternoons.

trying to be positive... (pm.04.oct.14)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 61.9F (16.6C)
High temp: 68.3F (20.2C)
Rainfall: trace

It's hazy, but there are very few clouds around the area after dark this evening.  We had a lot of variability between sun, clouds, and fog today -- with just a few sprinkles of rain for a short time during the early afternoon.  Although it's still much too gloomy for early October, it seems there have been some incremental improvements lately.

Totally removing rain showers from the forecast is a scary thing, because it seems that as soon as it seems safe to do that, it rains.  That's due to all this lingering moisture which continues to snuggle up against the mountains getting lifted and condensed by the late morning hours.  Although we can't totally rule out a couple of isolated showers, all the computer model data is pointing to a gradual drying trend during the next couple of days.

However, some cooling in the upper atmosphere is scheduled to start arriving by late Tuesday, continuing through Wednesday.  That could trigger yet another round of scattered showers and/or thundershowers during the mid-week period.  The good news is that the extended range data is consistently showing a remarkably impressive push of drier air spreading across most of northwest India by Thursday and Friday.  We'll be keeping a close eye on how that evolves...

mundane... (am.04.oct.14)>

After several chillier mornings in a row, it's quite mild again this morning.  I've recorded a low temp of 61.9F (16.6C), and there has been no rainfall overnight.  Humidity this morning is 86% -- still way too high for this time of year.

There has only been a trace of rain the past two days, in the form of some very light sprinkles during the mid-day into the mid-afternoon hours.  Otherwise we're continuing to deal with the same set of variables we've been dealing with for what seems like forever.  Lingering swathes of tropical moisture remain entrenched all along the front ranges of the Himalayas -- From J&K through Himachal and Uttarakhand into Nepal.  The upper-level pattern features a weak west-northwesterly flow, but is otherwise relatively stable.  The heating of the sun for a couple of hours during the morning leads to the condensation of all this latent moisture in place -- thus, the clouds, patchy fog and random showers.

Hints of a push of significantly drier air are showing up on the weather charts/data by Thursday and Friday of next week.  But we've been teased with this kind of scenario a few times before, so let's see. 

Check tabs above for forecast details and other info.

the residuals... (pm.02.oct.14)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 59.9F (15.5C)
High temp: 67.5F (19.7C)
Rainfall: trace

We have very hazy skies just after sunset this evening, with a few clumps of clouds and fog drifting around.  Although clouds and fog definitely trumped the sunshine today, we only had a few brief sprinkles of rain from the late morning into mid-afternoon which didn't do much more than barely wet the ground.

There's obviously still a lot lingering moisture here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars -- and that ribbon of moisture actually extends all along the Himalayan ranges -- from Jammu & Kashmir all the way into Nepal.  A very weak northwesterly flow in the upper-levels of the atmosphere is interacting with that residual moisture to keep widespread cloud/fog development happening, along with a few isolated showers/thundershowers as well.

I think I've said it about a thousand times -- but until we get a definitive and decisive push of deep drier air from the west-northwest, this latent moisture is going to continue to plague us.  The last several days our average humidity has been in the 75-90% range.  That number may drop a bit between tomorrow (Fri) and Monday, but it's not going to be enough to set us on a totally dry and sunny track...

october moisture... (pm.01.oct.14)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 59.5F (15.3C)
High temp: 65.1F (18.4C)
Rainfall: 0.43" (1.1cm)

It's partly cloudy and hazy as darkness settles in this evening.  We had another period of moderate rain showers today -- which got started shortly after 11:30am, and continued until around 1:00pm.  Both before and after that rainy episode, we had a bit of sunshine.

For the second year in a row, we're carrying significant leftovers of the monsoon season into the month of October.  As long as so much cloudiness and fog, along with scattered showers and thundershowers continue to develop along the hills and mountain slopes, it's questionable as to whether or not the India Met Department will consider giving us the "ALL CLEAR" for Monsoon 2014.  You can continue to follow that story on the tab above.

It's been looking like we may have a bit of a trend toward drier conditions and lower average humidity as we move into the latter part of this week -- then into the weekend and early next week as well.  But I'm sorry to say this still doesn't appear to be a long-term shift to sunny and dry weather.  Not at all.

a wet finish... (pm.30.sep.14)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 58.6F (14.8C)
High temp: 68.2F (20.1C)
Rainfall: 1.20" (3.0cm)

The mountains are visible to the northeast at sunset this evening, but there are still a lot of clouds in all other directions.  In line with the recent formula, our early to mid-morning sunshine was rapidly replaced by increasing clouds and patchy fog again today -- with some random sprinkles of rain appearing even just before noon.  By about 1:00pm, there were some heavier showers developing, with a bit of small hail mixed in as well.  Occasional rain showers and thunder kept up throughout most of the afternoon, and I recorded the greatest one-day rainfall total since the 5th of September at my location in the upper part of town.  The low temperature for the day (see above) occurred during the late afternoon.

We're now just hours away from saying 'goodbye' to the month of September -- a month which has been full of contradictions.  On one hand, it looks like we're going to finish off with barely HALF the normal amount of rainfall.  On the other hand, we still haven't had an official monsoon withdrawal declaration, which is a rarity by the final day of September.  What is normally the third wettest month of the year has been significantly drier than average (at least at my recording spot), but lingering tropical moisture has kept us battling clouds and fog almost every single day.

October last year was nearly spoiled by stubborn leftover tropical moisture... and we didn't really break free of it until the latter week or ten days of the month.  Is that going to happen again?  From where we sit right now, it looks like that is a distinct possibility.  Although some slightly drier air should filter in during the latter part of this week, we could easily see yet another resurgence of moisture, leading to a good chance of scattered showers and thundershowers next week.

still not turning... (pm.29.sep.14)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 58.6F (14.8C)
High temp: 67.1F (19.5C)
Rainfall: none

It's cloudy at sunset this evening, with some patchy fog as well.  There was no rain shower development in the immediate McLeod area today, though isolated thundershowers have been visible on satellite pics both to our northwest and southeast during the past few hours.

The month of September is drawing to a close -- and we still have no official withdrawal of Monsoon 2014 for our area.  Check the AWAITING MONSOON'S END tab at the top of the page for the latest specific info from the India Met Department.

Although we're experiencing some slightly cooler air settling in here in the surface layers of the atmosphere, the upper-air pattern is refusing to shift into a persistent autumn mode.  That's preventing the kind of strong push of dry air from central Asia needed to clear out these remaining dregs of tropical moisture which remain stuck all along the front slopes of the mountains.  We could see some marginally drier air appearing during the latter half of this week, but honestly, it doesn't look like a radical shift.

Do not be surprised by continued cloud/fog development as we push into October, and also be braced for sudden periods of showers and possible thundershowers as well.  Most of that rain potential will be during the afternoon and evening hours, but there are indications that we could even get some overnight and morning action during the coming couple of days as well.

the struggle... (pm.28.sep.14)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 58.5F (14.7C)
High temp: 66.9F (19.4C)
Rainfall: 0.29" (7mm) -- updated @ 8:06pm

We've had very angry-looking skies since mid-afternoon, and there have been several periods of rain showers, along with some thunder and even a brief period of small hail late this afternoon and evening.  Currently it's cloudy, with a rain shower in progress.  As we've experienced over and over again during most of the past couple of weeks, our morning sunshine wasn't able to hold on for very long.

There has been a significant amount of scattered thundershower activity today from extreme southwestern Jammu & Kashmir through most of Himachal Pradesh, and into Uttarakhand.  As long as we continue to have this lingering tropical moisture draped along the front slopes of the mountains, this volatility will remain an issue.

Although there are signs of a lessening of the average moisture content of our air mass as we move into the middle of this week (and into October), I still don't see a miraculous or dramatic surge of definitively drier air on the way -- and that's going to keep us struggling with a monsoon season that continues to resiliently fight to live on....

Check tabs above for forecast details, monsoon status reports, etc.

endless limbo... (pm.27.sep.14)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 60.4F (15.8C)
High temp: 67.6F (19.8C)
Rainfall: trace

There has been plenty of variability between sun, clouds and fog today -- and those fluctuations continue as sunset approaches this evening.  We also had a few sprinkles, brief showers, and even some thunder this afternoon, mainly in the 2:00 to 4:30pm range... but though it was enough to moisten the ground, it wasn't enough to register a measurement in my rain gauge.  The high temp this afternoon was one of the cooler ones of the past few months.

The shorter days and gradually cooler air of the autumn season are still being challenged by leftover tropical moisture associated with the (still) dying monsoon season.  We've got a very dull and flat upper-level weather pattern in place across northwest India, but there is still a significant amount of low-level moisture sprawled across the area as well.  Just a couple of hours of morning sunshine is all it takes to get things percolating... causing cloud and fog development, and even a few random/isolated showers or thundershowers along the mountain slopes.

Until we get some kind of significant shift in the upper-level pattern that would funnel much drier air from central Asia into northern India, this limbo stage is going to continue.  Other info on rainfall, monsoon status and forecast specifics can be found on tabs above...

clouds still dominant... (pm.26.sep.14)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 59.5F (15.3C)
High temp: 68.0F (20.0C)
Rainfall: trace

Now that we're pushing into the autumn season, our sunsets are happening earlier and earlier, obviously.  It's nearly dark already, before 6:30pm, and we have thick clouds, haze and fog blanketing the area.  There have also been some sprinkles and very light rain showers scattered here and there... but at least in the immediate McLeod area, there has been nothing measurable as of this moment.  Once again today, the decent sunshine was confined to the early to mid-morning hours.

At my location in the upper part of town, I've measured less than an inch (2.5cm) of rain in the past 12 days.  I know there's been more than that further downhill and to the east-southeast -- but by and large -- there hasn't been all that much rain since the middle of the month, considering the amount of cloudiness and fog we've had to endure.  Our atmosphere still contains a lot of residual tropical moisture, but it lacks the kind of thermodynamic energy to generate anything more than isolated PM shower development.

I still see no evidence at all of a strong push of drier air from the west-northwest that would be capable of chasing away these dregs of the monsoon season.  Even as we cross into October, there will be very little change in the overall pattern.  You know what that means: more of the same.

too much gloom... (pm.25.sep.14)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 59.9F (15.5C)
High temp: 68.7F (20.4C)
Rainfall: none

Although we've had thick cloudiness and fog hanging over and around us for much of today, satellite pics show that scattered shower/thunder action has been primarily to our east and southeast... as it was yesterday as well.  Sunshine during the morning was nice, but it was gradually replaced by developing cloudiness by the noon hour.  Here at sunset, we're still totally socked in with clouds and fog.

Waiting and hoping for a definitive end to this residual monsoon moisture here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars starts to get very tiring by this time of year -- at least to me.  I'll have to be honest and say that the prolonged and seemingly endless waning days of the monsoon season are my least favorite time of year.  This year is starting to seem strangely familiar to the 2013 season, when it seemed we'd never make the turn to drier and sunnier weather.

There is no data forthcoming that would show any kind of drastic long-term changes to these conditions that we've been stuck in all month.  Some morning sun -- lots of clouds by the mid-day -- still the risk of a round of PM showers or thundershowers.

indiscriminate dumpings... (am.25.sep.14)>

I've been away on a trek (and unplugged) way up above Kanyara the last couple of days -- so haven't been able to post updates.  We got hit with several waves of very heavy rain showers yesterday afternoon on the way down the mountain -- mainly between about 2:00 and 4:30pm.  I can't be sure, but it seemed like there could have been at least 2" (5cm) from just above Kanyara down to near Norbulingka.  Surprisingly, by the time I reached home in the upper part of McLeod shortly after 7pm, my rain gauge was barely wet!!  That's a real-time example of how vastly different conditions can be here in our general vicinity.

This morning we have mostly sunny skies, but of course it's not going to last.  The daily build-up of thick clouds along the front slopes of the mountains is surely to happen again today -- thanks to the blobs of lingering tropical moisture that have refused to be displaced.  There is no indication that we're going to see an appreciable or long-lasting turn of events that would change that reality.

Look out for more isolated to scattered shower/thunder development during mainly the afternoon/evening hours for the next several days at least.  And just like what happened yesterday -- some of us could get dumped on, while others miss out.

no clean sweep... (pm.22.sep.14)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 61.3F (16.3C)
High temp: 72.5F (22.5C)
Rainfall: none

There are just enough lingering clouds to provide some nice colors reflected by the setting sun this evening.  Full sunshine didn't last very long this morning, with rapid cloud development along the mountains getting started around 9:00am -- leading to mostly cloudy skies at times by 10:30am.  I was on edge about potential shower development, but that never happened, giving us our seventh dry day out of the last eight.

Although the India Met Department may be declaring Monsoon 2014 officially 'withdrawn' for parts of northwest India during the next day or so, we definitely have no clean sweep of leftover tropical moisture yet.  In fact, computer models are showing a minor resurgence of moisture northwestward along the the front slopes of the mountains as we progress toward the end of the week.  That means we're going to be contending with plenty of cloudiness in the midst of periods of sunshine for the next several days at least, along with an increasing chance of some scattered showers/thunder by Thursday.

It is worth remembering that September is the third wettest month of the year on average -- right behind July and August -- so even if the monsoon season is officially coming to an end, that doesn't mean this place suddenly turns into a desert.

intricacies of the season... (am.22.sep.14)>

A bright and sunny morning is shaping up, with totally clear skies at sunrise.  I'm recording an overnight low temperature of 61.3F (16.3C), and no rainfall.  The humidity reading is currently 73%.

If you've been keeping a close eye on the UPDATED RAINFALL TALLY this season, you've seen that our September rainfall is running way below normal.  In fact, we've received less than HALF the average monthly total, with just eight days to go.  This year's monsoon season has been a strange one -- the total rainfall since the beginning of June is running about 20% below the normal/average amount at my location in the upper part of McLeod, but we've still not been able to bust out into a truly decisively reliable dry weather pattern.  Lingering moisture hangs on.

Things are looking pretty good during the coming two or three days, with a northwesterly flow in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere providing a generally dry and stable situation for us.  I am ever-nervous about rogue shower/thunder development over the mountains during the afternoon/evening hours... but we shouldn't let that possibility spoil the show.  There is the potential for a better chance of showers and thundershowers by Thursday, and continuing through the weekend, however.

a brighter period... (pm.21.sep.14)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 61.7F (16.5C)
High temp: 73.4F (23.0C)
Rainfall: none

It's a beautiful evening -- with partly cloudy skies, relatively low humidity and comfortably mild temperatures.  Our proportion of sunshine today was greater than just about any day since the start of the monsoon season nearly three months ago.  There was some cloud development over the mountains which led to a couple of isolated showers further to our north and east, but we reverted to our recent dry streak after yesterday's setback.

We're set up for some nice late September weather during the coming few days, thanks to a rather dry northwesterly flow in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere, combined with some slightly less-moist air in the surface layers.  Although there will probably still be some cloud development in the vicinity of the mountains towards the afternoon hours, I'm hopeful that it won't be as extensive as it was during much of last week.  It's hard to ignore the risk of an isolated PM shower, but at this point, the chances of that happening look to be small.

I have to say that there are some disturbing-looking signs showing up toward the latter part of the week, as some resurgent low-level moisture creeps back in our direction from the southeast.  That could cut into our sunshine and increase our chance of scattered showers/thunder as early as Thursday...

flipping and flopping... (am.21.sep.14)>

The sky is 100% clear early on this Sunday morning, and the humidity reading is just 57%.  That's one of the lowest I've seen at this time of the morning since June.  There has been no additional rainfall overnight -- but last evening's thundershowers delivered 0.88" (2.2cm) at my location in the upper part of town, most of which occurred between 4 and 7pm.  The overnight low temp has been 61.7F (16.5C).

As is often the case during September, we're getting a lot of mixed signals from the atmosphere, and from the computer models which crunch data and try to understand what the atmosphere is doing.  As I've said over and over, we've still not totally purged lingering pockets of tropical moisture from our air mass here along the front slopes of the mountains, and it certainly looks like we'll continue to go through some minor ebbs and flows as the rest of this month plays out.  At the same time, true monsoon conditions continue to loosen their grip, and the India Met Department is saying an official withdrawal declaration could be coming soon.  You can follow the latest on that by keeping an eye on the AWAITING MONSOON'S END tab above.

We could see increasing clouds and another shot at some thundershower action later today, but generally, the next several days should feature lower daily average humidity readings and greater amounts of sunshine.  Thereafter, there are hints of increasing shower/thunder chances as next weekend approaches...

temporary setback... (pm.20.sep.14)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 56.5F (13.6C) -- during eve thundershowers 
High temp: 73.9F (23.3C)
Rainfall: 0.88" (2.2cm) -- updated @ 750pm

The afternoon/evening thundershowers we've been doing without for five straight days finally showed up again today.  There was some thunder rumbling as early as 3:45pm, with several waves of rain showers, gusty winds and thunder/lightning after 4:00pm, and even some small hail... with light rain continuing at the present moment.  Up until that action got going, our day was pretty similar to the previous several days.

Last evening I mentioned a batch of colder air aloft which would be moving into north India over the weekend -- introducing some instability, and keeping us from being able to totally ignore PM shower/thunder development.  I'm surprised it's been this robust, though.  And according to satellite pics, we're sharing the action with parts of Jammu and Kashmir as well as other scattered areas across Himachal Pradesh.

Some of the moisture that continues to lingering here along the front slopes of the western Himalayan ranges will be pushed southeast of us during the next 48 hours or so -- and that may set us up for our next phase of improving weather conditions as the new week unfolds.  Additional detailed info is available on tabs above...

same general story... (pm.19.sep.14)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 63.1F (17.3C)
High temp: 73.9F (23.3C)
Rainfall: none

Well here we are this evening with our familiar cloud and fog scenario.  Every single day of this past week has been a minor variation on the early morning sun -- mid-day cloud development -- cloudy/foggy late afternoon and evening -- post-sunset clearing theme.  In spite of the cloud/fog challenges, we've had our fifth dry day in a row.  The last time that happened was during the first half of June.

The population of ferns clinging to tree trunks around our area has gone through a major transformation during the past five to seven days -- from lush green to brittle yellow.  This process is always a tell-tale natural sign that our monsoon season is fading away.

Satellite pics the last several days have shown a narrow band of thick clouds and fog developing right along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars, in response to lingering moisture which gets lifted and condensed by the late morning hours.  Computer models have been consistent in showing a further lowering of the moisture content of our air mass as we move into the new week -- so we shall see if that will make any kind of difference.  At the same time, there is some slightly cooler air expected to arrive in the upper-levels of the atmosphere, which could introduce a bit of instability over the weekend.  That means we still can't totally and absolutely rule out a shower or thundershower popping up at some point.

More specific info can be found on tabs at the top of the page...

four rainless days... (pm.18.sep.14)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 62.4F (16.9C)

High temp: 73.9F (23.3C)

Rainfall: none

It's become the norm the past several evenings to be immersed in clouds and fog -- just as we've gotten used to glorious sunshine during the first few hours of the morning.  In between, we've been dealing with a mix of clouds, sun, and patchy fog during the mid-day hours.  Today has been no exception.  ALSO -- the rain has disappeared.  Unless some showers happen to develop before midnight, today will go down in the books as the fourth consecutive dry day.

The lingering moisture hanging around here along the front slopes of the mountains has kept our humidity levels from falling to where we'd like them to be, but our air mass has been stable enough to prevent this moisture from being translated into showers and thundershowers the last few days -- at least here in our specific area.  It's been a nice step in the right direction this week, but I think we'd all appreciate a bit more sunshine.

We'll be precariously positioned this weekend, with computer model data still not showing a clean sweep of this leftover moisture.  That means we need to be prepared for more of this sun-clouds-fog variability through Sunday -- with that ever-present risk of an isolated PM shower.  There could be a further drop in the atmospheric moisture content early next week.

the gradual death... (pm.17.sep.14)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 61.5F (16.4C)
High temp: 71.6F (22.0C)
Rainfall: none

Once again this evening we're dealing with patches of low clouds and fog drifting around the area.  Today was pretty much a repeat of yesterday, with full sunshine during the early morning giving way to gradually developing cloudiness before 10am, then a battle between clouds, patchy fog and sun for the remainder of the day.  Despite the clouds, we've now logged our third totally dry day in a row, which is now on a par with a stretch of 3-4 nearly rainless days between the 27th and 30th of August.  We have to go all the way back to late June to find a longer period of dry weather.

The thing that happens almost every year is happening now -- the thing that most people tend to forget.  And that's the fact that there is rarely (if ever) a sharp and specific moment marking the definitive end of the monsoon season.  Although our daily bouts of showers have sputtered out, we continue to see a considerable amount of cloud/fog development after a couple of hours of strong early morning sunshine.

Is that going to change soon?  At this point, I don't really think so.  Rain chances aren't looking very impressive at all (though an isolated PM shower is still within the realm of possibility), but a strong push of much drier air capable of shoving this lingering moisture out of here is unlikely during the coming several days...

sun's challengers... (am.17.sep.14)>

We have bright sunshine early on this Wednesday morning.  The overnight low temp has been 61.5F (16.4C), with no rainfall to report.  The humidity reading stands at 84%.

That relative humidity number has crept up again the last couple of mornings, and that's to be our major concern.  It's a measure of how much latent moisture our air mass is holding, and is often a very good indicator of the development of clouds after the morning sun gets a chance to warm up the lower levels of the atmosphere for a couple of hours.

The general weather pattern itself is totally benign, with no storm system in play at all here across the western Himalayan region.  However, whatever moisture that is still lingering here is not going to allow us to get away with fully sunny days -- continue to expect gradual cloud development toward the mid-day hours, with some PM fog at times, too.  Also, the risk of a period of showers during the afternoon is still worth mentioning.

Remember that you can access lots of other info, including the 7-DAY OUTLOOK on tabs above.

minor battles... (pm.16.sep.14)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 60.4F (15.8C)
High temp: 71.8F (22.1C)
Rainfall: none

Today has been the second day in a row without any rain at all in McLeod Ganj -- at least not any that I've observed.  There are big clumps of clouds and fog drifting around the area at sunset this evening, but those should dissipate gradually after dark.  Our full sunshine early this morning started to give way to developing clouds before 10am, leading to an all-day battle between sun and clouds.

It's easy to see that we still have enough latent moisture in this mid-September air mass to be lifted and condensed into cloudiness and fog here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars.  This is no surprise, really, since it's a regular occurrence not only during the last days of the monsoon season, but at other times of the year on occasion as well.  It takes a very strong and deep push of bone-dry air from the northwest to sweep this moisture away for good -- and it doesn't look like that's going to happen in the near future.  Still, things are getting better by increments.

I'm dying to remove the risk of isolated PM showers or thundershowers from the 7 DAY OUTLOOK... but I know from past experience that it's not very wise to do that just yet.  Expect more of this early sun - developing clouds - risk of a shower business as we push deeper into the later half of the month...

mid-september issues... (am.16.sep.14)>

The sky is 100% clear at sunrise this morning, but humidity is a bit higher than it was this time yesterday morning -- currently 78%.  I'm recording an overnight low of 60.4F (15.8C), and there has been no new rainfall to report.

Yesterday (Mon) was the first totally rain-free day since way back on the 29th of August.  Although there have been three or four days since then that I've recorded only trace or scanty amounts of rain, there was at least something to report every day.  We'll see if yesterday was truly the beginning of something new, or if it was just a rogue dry day in the midst of this dying phase of our monsoon season.

There are no significant large-scale features on the weather charts for the rest of this week, or even into early next week for that matter.  Our main issues will concern the subtleties of lingering pockets of latent moisture here along the front slopes of the mountains, and what kind of cloud/fog development we'll face, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.  Also, isolated PM shower development along the mountains remains a possibility. 

Our situation has definitely moved in a more positive direction, but we've still not reached the point where we can be assured of totally sunny skies...

towards liberation... (pm.15.sep.14)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 59.9F (15.5C)
High temp: 72.7F (22.6C)
Rainfall: none

We're immersed in rather thick cloudiness and fog at the moment -- which stands in stark contrast to what we were enjoying for the vast majority of the day.  Sunshine totally dominated until just a few cumulus clouds started to develop over the mountains during the late morning.  Those clouds never looked threatening at all throughout the afternoon... and it's only been since about 5:00pm that the bases have lowered enough to put us in the soup for awhile.  We should return to mostly clear skies not long after sunset, though.

Overall, today has been a vast improvement over anything else we've experienced during the month of September thus far.  Humidity readings were in the 55-70% range  for most of the day -- an indication that our air mass has dried out considerably in the past 24 hours or so.  As I said this morning, literally ALL of the available computer model data is showing dry, calm and quiet weather for us this week, with the average moisture content of our air mass remaining lower than it has been since before monsoon season began (apart from a few unseasonably dry days in late August).

Mid-day cloud development over the mountains will be something to watch carefully, and there could still be some isolated PM shower/thunder development -- otherwise it seems we could be embarking upon a tangible shift toward post-monsoon conditions.  Pretty much right on schedule.

sunshiny morning... (am.15.sep.14)>

It's absolutely clear at sunrise on this Monday morning, and my current temp of 59.9F (15.5C) is also the overnight low.  The big news this morning is the humidity reading -- at 67%, it's the lowest at this hour of the day that I've seen in a while.

The anticipated drying-out of our air mass is already underway, with a fairly steady northwesterly flow in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere driving much of the recent lingering tropical moisture well southeast of us.  Weather charts and computer model data -- on the large scale -- are showing a very calm and quiet pattern for us here in northern India this week.  Daily average humidity should be much lower, allowing the sun to hold on longer than it has been able to in past weeks.

However (and there always seems to be a 'however'), it's tough to totally erase pockets of moisture loitering here along the front slopes of the mountains... and with morning sunshine setting surface heating in motion, we'll have to keep an eye on cloud development toward the noon hour.  Also, there could be a thundershower popping up in our vicinity on any given afternoon this week.  SO -- things are looking much better, but we're not totally 'home free'...

slow shifts... (pm.14.sep.14)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 55.2F (12.9C)
High temp: 70.0F (21.1C)
Rainfall: 0.45" (1.1cm)

It's a gorgeous Sunday evening... with lingering cloudiness off to the east, but clear skies overhead and westward.  Once again there were some radical fluctuations between clouds, fog and sun today, just as we've seen nearly every day this month.  There was also a short but intense period of rain, thunder and gusty winds during the early afternoon -- roughly between about 1:45 and 2:20pm.  During that thundershower, our temperatures plummeted to the coolest levels of this entire summer/monsoon season.  Signs of the coming of autumn!

As we arrive at the middle of September, we still have no official declaration of the withdrawal of Monsoon 2014.  That's because a fairly respectable amount of tropical moisture remains entrenched across Himalayan north India -- we've had at least a trace of rain every single day since the 30th of August, and more than one-tenth of an inch on all but four of those days.  You can check this monsoon season's rainfall details on the UPDATED RAINFALL TALLY tab at the top of the page.

For many days we've been looking forward to improving conditions as this new week unfolds, with average daily humidity dropping considerably, which should lead to a greater percentage of sunshine for us.  At the same time, we're going to have to watch out for the development of clouds and perhaps some fog by the afternoon hours here along the mountain slopes... still!  Isolated showers and thundershowers remain a possibility as well, the chances of which we'll be reassessing day-by-day.

glimmers of hope... (pm.13.sep.14)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 59.5F (15.3C)
High temp: 70.0F (21.1C)
Rainfall: 0.01" (less than 1mm)

At this moment it is mostly cloudy, with some patchy fog and and scattered sprinkles and light rain showers around the area.  Once again we've had a great variability in sky conditions today, with short periods of sunshine alternating with longer periods of clouds and occasional fog.  Although there have been some sprinkles, drizzle, a few brief rain showers, and some rumbles of thunder since just after 1:00pm, the rain has been barely measurable up until now.

The effects of lingering, residual tropical moisture continue to plague us... preventing any real and lasting clearing trend from taking hold.  A couple of hours of early morning sunshine in combination with a marginally unstable atmosphere is all it takes to generate lots of cloudiness and these random rain/thunder showers.  If you are a regular follower of this blog, you've heard it all many times before.

The latest computer model data is still showing a trend toward decreasing moisture content of our air mass as we progress into the middle of the new week -- but computer models are notoriously incompetent when it comes to picking up the intricacies of our Dhauladhar micro-climate effects.  I'm optimistic about a gradual lowering of daily average humidity levels as the coming week unfolds, but I still think we're going to have to be braced for daily doses of clouds/fog (though less pronounced) and perhaps some isolated PM thundershowers.

more patience required... (pm.12.sep.14)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 59.9F (15.5C)
High temp: 69.1F (20.6C)
Rainfall since midnight: 0.30" (8mm)

It's partly cloudy at the moment, here at the end of another day of extreme back-and-forth swings between sun, clouds and fog.  That early morning sunshine did indeed quickly give way to thick clouds/fog again -- well before the noon hour -- and there have been a few sprinkles and brief periods of light rain showers mainly during the PM hours as well.  At least at my location in the upper part of town, this afternoon's rainfall didn't contribute much to the leftover total from our thundershowers just after midnight.

We've been in a fairly predictable pattern for most of this past week, with things looking pretty bright during the early morning hours, only to turn gloomy and damp by the mid-day into the afternoon.  This kind of situation is pretty much par for the course as we approach mid-September.

Lingering tropical moisture sloshing around and up against the mountains of northern India will continue interacting with some slightly cooler air aloft --keep us dealing with these fluctuations between sunshine, clouds, fog, and occasional showers/thundershowers.  However, there are still some positive signs that our air mass will dry out considerably as we head toward the middle of next week.  Time will tell if those computer models solutions are in touch with reality.

repeat cycle... (am.12.sep.14)>

It's looking very nice at sunrise this morning, with just a few scattered clouds as the sun starts to peek over the top of the mountains.  We had another round of thundershowers in the middle of the night -- I wasn't entirely lucid at the time, but I think it happened mostly in the midnight to 1:00am range.  My rain gauge shows an additional 0.28" (7mm) from that episode.  I'm recording a low temp of 59.9F (15.5C), and the humidity reading this morning is 83%.

Well we know very well that these sunny starts don't amount to much, since they don't last very long.  It's fairly likely that we'll be experiencing more thick cloudiness and some patchy fog by the noon hour, with a risk of the development of more scattered shower/thunder action during the afternoon hours.  That same scenario should repeat itself tomorrow (Sat), and perhaps on Sunday as well.

It's dangerous to get too optimistic during the middle of September, unless you want your hopes dashed against the rocks -- but things are still looking more promising for a more significant retreat of lingering monsoon moisture as next week unfolds.  Stay tuned...

variability continues... (pm.11.sep.14)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 59.5F (15.3C) -- at 3:30pm
High temp: 71.4F (21.9C)
Rainfall: 0.95" (2.4cm)

Our skies are partly cloudy at sunset this evening, and there's actually been a pretty good amount of sunshine during the last couple of hours.  Before that, our day featured totally sunny skies until the usual cloudiness started to develop not long after 9:00am.  Clouds, fog, and a few peeks of sun during the mid-day hours then yielded to very thick cloudiness and a period of fairly heavy thundershowers between 2:30 and 3:30pm.  The rain didn't last very long, but I measured nearly an inch (see stats above) at my location on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center, along with a brief but steep dip in temperatures.

Obviously we're still dealing with the extreme variability of a late monsoon season air mass across our area -- from sunshine to clouds to heavy showers in a very short period of time.  As I've been saying for days now, there is still no decisive and definitive departure of lingering tropical moisture expected during the next few days at least.  That means we have to remain prepared for rapid changes and deterioration of conditions, despite some sunny starts to our days.

I'm watching with great interest the extended range computer model data, which has been showing hints of a more significant retreat of monsoon moisture, along with a stabilizing atmosphere as we move into the middle of next week.  Right now I'd say there is a possibility of an ON TIME withdrawal declaration of Monsoon 2014 during the next week to ten days or so...

sputtering phase... (pm.10.sep.14)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 63.0F (17.2C)
High temp: 71.4F (21.9C)
Rainfall: 0.01" (less than 1mm)

A very pleasant evening is in progress, with partly cloudy skies and comfortable temperatures.  It's been another day of wildly swinging extremes between sunshine, clouds, fog, light rain showers and even some thunder.  The rain barely registered a measurement in my gauge in the upper part of town, but it did look threatening for a while during the early afternoon.

Yet again today, we saw how quickly early morning sunshine can get eclipsed by cloudiness and fog.  That's what happens when there remains a good amount of latent moisture in the air -- condensed out by rapid warming from the sun for just an hour or two.  It doesn't look like our air mass is going to dry out enough to put an end to this phenomenon during the next few days... so we'll continue to have to be braced for the development of clouds, patchy fog and some random rain shower/thunder action by the mid-day and afternoon hours.

The good news is that there is no indication whatsoever of another strong surge of monsoon moisture -- even on the extended range data which gives us a glimpse all the way into the final week of September.  Of course there could be twists in the plot, but it seems that this year's monsoon season will continue to sputter out and dissipate as we move into the latter half of the month.

tropical moisture lingers... (pm.09.sep.14)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 63.5F (17.5C)
High temp: 71.6F (22.0C)
Rainfall: 0.14" (4mm)

Our beautiful early morning sunshine didn't last very long -- giving way to a lot of thick cloudiness and occasional fog before 11:00am.  There were even a few brief sprinkles of rain around noon, with a brief but heavier shower (with thunder) right around 4:00pm that actually delivered a quick few millimeters of rain.  Here at sunset, we've got a mix of clouds, fog, and peeks of sun.

The tail-end of the monsoon season is often characterized by lingering latent moisture in the air mass that can quickly turn a sunny day into a cloudy, foggy and showery one.  Every year we go through this -- everyone has a passionate desire to be able to say a final GOOD-BYE to the monsoon, but it can tend to linger on and deceive us a few times before it finally departs for good.  And honestly, the 9th of September is still too early!

The weather charts and data look fairly encouraging as far as the trend over the course of the next week to ten days is concerned.  But I'm still not seeing the definitive and decisive push of dry air from the northwest (throughout the multiple layers of the atmosphere) that is necessary to permanently displace this left-over tropical moisture.  Stay mentally prepared for the development of clouds, patchy fog, and mainly afternoon rain showers as we wait out this transition period...

monsoon still here... (pm.08.sep.14)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 64.4F (18.0C)
High temp: 70.9F (21.6C)
Rainfall: 0.32" (8mm)

The day is ending much like it began, with a broken layer of mid-level cloudiness across the area.  But in between start and finish, we had a long period of cloudy and foggy conditions, with a few hours of drizzle, light to moderate rain showers, and even a bit of thunder.  The most consistent rains occurred between about 10:00am and 2:00pm -- but as you can see from the stats (above), there wasn't much of an impressive amount in the rain gauge to show for it.

The waning weeks of the monsoon season can be a frustrating time.  Just like what happened today, weather charts and data often show improving conditions, when the ground-truth reality doesn't line up.  As long as there is a good amount of latent moisture lingering in the air, we can easily get periods of rain showers popping up -- normally during the afternoon and evening hours, but as we saw today, it can happen earlier in the day as well.  

We'll try to come up with a bit more sunshine during the next few days, but cloud and fog development is still likely, with the risk of mainly PM showers/thunder nearly every day.  Extended range data is still looking promising by the 14th-15th of the month, with at least a shot at permanently retreating monsoon moisture by that time.  Of course we'll keep an eye on it day-by-day.