unsettled... (am.19.feb.13)>

The sun is shining through a layer of thin high clouds as it rises above the Dhauladhars this morning.  I've recorded an overnight low of 42.8F (6.0C), and the humidity has dropped considerably since last evening -- now 44%.

There is a weak upper-level disturbance drifting across northern India today, which will keep us alternating between sun and clouds.  We'll have to wait and see if there is still enough latent moisture in this air mass to produce a period of thicker clouds, fog, and perhaps some random light showers for a while during the afternoon.  Temperatures are on the upswing, but we're going to remain a few degrees below normal for this time of year.

Still watching yet another storm system which is scheduled to arrive just in time for the weekend (again), bringing us a good chance of rain.  February 2013 is already running way above normal in terms of rainfall, and it looks like we could be adding considerably to our monthly total during the coming week to 10 days.

Full forecast below... with updates as necessary.

a moody phase... (pm.18.feb.13)>

*Update @ 8:05pm... The sky is clear, the stars are out -- but the humidity stands at 92%.

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Monday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 39.0F (3.9C)
Mid-day high temp: 50.9F (10.5C) -- at 11:25am
Rainfall: 0.08" (2mm) -- updated


There are still some lingering patches of clouds and fog in the area, otherwise it is mostly clear as we approach sunset this evening.  We had gorgeous sunshine until about 11:00am, when clouds rapidly began developing here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars.  Those clouds, along with periods of thick fog, hung around throughout the afternoon, but then have dissipated as quickly as they initially developed, shortly past 5:00pm.  There were even some brief, light showers around the area between 3 and 5pm, with a little sleet/small hail reported as well.

Left-over moisture all along the southwest-facing slopes of the mountains condensed into clouds after a few hours of strong sunshine late this morning, despite the fact that we have no storm system in the area.  A classic example of our mountain micro-climate factors at work.  With no major changes in the weather pattern expected during the next few days, we may be dealing with more rather moody weather, unless this low-level moisture manages to get scoured out.  Only weak disturbances will be moving through on the rapid flow aloft, but it may be hard for us to come up with a totally sunny day this week.

Our next real storm system will be organizing by late Friday, giving us another potentially wet weekend, while temperatures, though rising a few degrees, should remain on the cool side of normal for late February.

MONDAY NIGHT:

clear to partly cloudy.  not as cold as recent nights.

low: 6C (42F)

TUESDAY:

both sun and some clouds.  a bit milder.

high: 12C (54F)

TUESDAY NIGHT:

partly cloudy to mostly cloudy at times.

low: 7C (45F)

WEDNESDAY:

still a mix of sun and clouds.  temps still below normal.

high: 13C (55F)

THURSDAY:

sunny to partly cloudy.

morning low: 8C (46F)

daytime high: 14C (57F)

FRIDAY:

increasing clouds with a chance of some rain showers by late in the day.

morning low: 8C (47F)

daytime high: 14C (57F)

SATURDAY:

 mostly cloudy and colder.  good chance of occasional rain showers.

morning low: 7C (45F)

daytime high: 11C (52F)

the sun... (am.18.feb.13)>

*Update @ 3:07pm... This morning's bright sunshine did indeed give way to a rapid build-up of clouds shortly after 11am.  These thick clouds are hugging the leading slopes and foothills of the Dhaualadhars, and are even producing a couple of random light showers (there has been one here in the upper part of town during the past few minutes).  We should see the clouds dissipate around sunset.

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Ahhh... sunshine.  Skies are mostly clear at sunrise this morning -- a very welcome and refreshing change.  I've recorded a chilly overnight low of 39F (3.9C), and there has been no additional rainfall since last evening.

With some lingering moisture in the air (humidity this morning is 70%), it is possible that we'll see a build-up of clouds later in the day, and perhaps even a random shower somewhere up in the mountains.  Otherwise vast improvements are underway.

Scroll down for the full forecast, and check back here for an updated 5-day outlook this evening.

a brighter picture... (pm.17.feb.13)>

Update @ 8:31pm... Just checking my records, today has been the 2nd coldest day of this winter season, right behind 19 January -- the day that we received 3-7" of snow in McLeod during the overnight/early morning hours.  That afternoon, with a good amount of sunshine, we hit 44.2F (6.8C).

There are some breaks in the overcast now, and I'm pretty sure our rain showers are finished and this storm has come to an end.

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Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 39.2F (4.0C)
High temp: 44.5F (6.9C)
Rainfall since 7:30am: 0.38" (1cm)
Storm total rainfall: 1.80" (4.6cm)  -- since noon Friday

The day is ending with a glimpse of the setting sun on the western horizon, after a day dominated by clouds, fog, and a few lingering rain showers.  The sun did attempt to break through late this morning, but couldn't quite make it.  All in all it has been a damp and cold Sunday.

The snow line never made it much below about 2100m/6900ft, which is perplexing -- but it's still great news as far as our water supply is concerned, since there was an additional two feet of snow (or more) up there where it is needed.

Although our storm system has dissipated, with the left-over upper-level energy racing off to the east through Nepal, there is a tremendous amount of moisture left clinging to the front ranges of the mountains -- all the way from Kashmir through Himachal and Uttarakhand into Nepal.  This moisture will be gradually scoured out, but with no dramatic intrusion of much drier air, it may take a while.

Our weather pattern this week is going to keep things a bit active, with a fast-moving jet stream carrying several weak disturbances from the Middle East into the western Himalayan region.  This will mean alternating sun and clouds for us, along with a chance of a few light rain and/or snow showers higher up in the mountains.  It looks like there will be a stronger system entering the picture next weekend, bringing us yet another shot at some decent precipitation.

By this stage of February, we would normally be approaching 60F (15.5C), but despite a modest warm-up during the next several days, temps should remain generally below average.

SUNDAY NIGHT:

partial clearing.  slight chance of a lingering shower before midnight.

low: 4C (39F)

MONDAY:

a mix of sun and some clouds.  milder.

high: 11C (52F)

MONDAY NIGHT:

clear to partly cloudy.  not as cold.

low: 7C (44F)

TUESDAY:

partly cloudy.  milder, but still below normal for mid-feb.

high: 12C (54F)

WEDNESDAY:

a mix of clouds and sun.

morning low: 7C (45F)

daytime high: 13C (55F)

THURSDAY:

sun and a few clouds.

morning low: 7C (45F)

daytime high: 13C (56F)

FRIDAY:

increasing clouds with a chance of rain showers developing late in the day.

morning low: 8C (47F)

daytime high: 14C (57F)