the abnormality of it all... (pm.04.oct.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 62.4F (16.9C)
High temp: 71.6F (22.0C)
Rainfall: trace

Clouds and fog are still thick and heavy out there this evening as darkness descends, but we are ending the day without measurable rainfall, at least here in the local area.  Once again there was a very nice amount of sunshine to start the day, in spite of the haze, but clouds and fog literally exploded all around us between 11:00am and noon, and remained in control for the rest of the day.  There were a few sprinkles of rain from just before 4:00pm until recently, along with some rumbles of thunder to the east-northeast, also during the late afternoon.  Humidity dropped as low as 72% during the mid-morning, but then settled into the 80-85% range thereafter.

This horrendously moisture-laden air mass is way out of the ordinary for early October, and not at all enjoyable for those who have been here all throughout the monsoon season.  Enough already!  It is not unusual for the last dregs of post-monsoon tropical moisture to linger even until the middle of October, but what we've been dealing with is much more significant than that.  Humidity readings that fail to drop below 70% day after day after day by this time of year -- that is not something I remember seeing during my years here -- and local climatological data confirms that this is highly abnormal.

There remains a shimmering light further along the tunnel, in the form of a rather significant pattern shift by early next week.  The mid- and upper-level flow will strengthen, from the west-northwest, driving some significantly drier air into northwest India, and eventually, even into central parts of the country.  This gives us some hope for a more substantial drop in humidity next week, along with only the slightest risk of some mainly PM shower activity.  Follow along as we wait to see if theory translates into reality.

MONSOON 2016 info and THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK are available on tabs above. 

humidity still too high... (pm.03.oct.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 63.1F (17.3C)
High temp: 70.7F (21.5C)
Rainfall: none

Well, we managed to make it through the day without a deluge... for the first time this October.  We've still had to contend with a lot of cloudiness and fog since the late morning, but at least here in the immediate McLeod area, there has been no rain that I've witnessed.  The sun was a bit more dominant during the early to mid-morning hours, which was very nice to see, but the humidity remains far too high for this time of year -- right around 85% for the daily average.

Models are showing very little if any precipitation development across Himalayan north India over the course of the next few days... but of course that doesn't mean there won't be some isolated shower/thunder development somewhere along mainly the southwest-facing mountain slopes during the afternoon hours.  There are also hints of some slightly drier air trying to work its way in from the west-northwest, but whether that translates into an actual lowering of our extremely high humidity levels (or not) remains to be seen.

Yet another bit of resurgent moisture is projected over the coming weekend, but THEN, there appears to be a much more dramatic push of relatively drier air on the way about one week from right now.  From this vantage point, it does look like a very positive shift in the overall weather pattern will occur, but of course we're going to have to check it day-by-day to see if it's for real.

I've posted a recap of this year's monsoon stats, on MONSOON 2016 (tab above), and THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK is back up and running as well...

just like mid-monsoon... (pm.02.oct.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 63.3F (17.4C)
High temp: 70.3F (21.3C)
Rainfall: 2.17" (5.5cm)

I have recorded very close to four inches (10.2cm) of rain at my location in the upper part of town on these first two days of October.  The normal/average amount of rain for the ENTIRE MONTH is just 2.60" (6.6cm) -- so it goes without saying that we're having a very unusual start.  But we also know that we ended the month of September more than six inches (15cm) below the norm, so if we're really concerned about average/normal statistics, we can just fudge this early October rainfall into the September books.!!

Really, it has been crazy the last two afternoons, with these massive downpours worthy of a mid-monsoon classification.  In fact, the overall weather pattern -- both at the surface and into the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere -- looks much more like mid-August than early October.  Where is the drier and cooler central Asian air that normally starts dipping into Himalayan north India by this time of year?  Well, it is locked up very far to our north and west, with no indication of a move in our direction until at least the 11th or 12th of the month.

We may see a bit of a decrease in the moisture content of our airmass this week, but I won't feel comfortable ignoring the risk of afternoon shower/thunder development until we can actually see and feel some kind of significant change in the pattern.  Yes, October is supposed to be one of our finest months of the year, but so far, it stinks.

Check tabs above for more info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK...

october downpour... (pm.01.oct.16)>

After just finishing the month of September with a 42% below normal rainfall total, we've received on this first day of October 70% of the normal/average total for the entire month!!  All monthly rainfall norms are always available for you to check on the WETTEST MONTHS tab at the top of the page.

At least at my location in the upper part of town, today's heavy rainfall occurred between about 3:15 and 5:00pm, and I recorded 1.80" (4.6cm) -- though it was still raining a little bit when I last had a chance to check the gauge.  Will update later this evening if necessary.

I have to say it is a bit disconcerting to arrive back in McLeod Ganj after a nearly five week absence, to find that our weather conditions are no better than they were when I left at the end of August.  There is plenty of lingering, stagnant tropical moisture stuck here along the front slopes of the mountains, and as you know if you've been paying much attention over the years, it is often a painstaking and frustrating process before we can truly break free into post-monsoon conditions.  All of the model data this evening indicates that it might take until about the 10th or 11th of the month before we see a definitive autumn-like air mass that can truly chase this leftover tropical juice out of here.