our wet feb... (am.21.feb.13)>

High clouds started moving in just after 4am this morning in association with an upper-level disturbance that is just a precursor of the storm system expected to develop and move across northern India this weekend.  My overnight low was 44.8F (7.1C), but it is currently 47.8F (8.8C), with humidity only 36%.

So far this week we've been dealing with wild swings between sunshine, clouds, fog and even some light rain showers -- thanks to an active, fast-moving jet stream overhead, along with an unstable air mass here along the mountains.  We should see a lot of high cloudiness today, along with a risk of a period of fog and perhaps a rain shower or two later in the day, once again.

The next round of significant rainfall will hold off until tomorrow (Fri) through Saturday night or early Sunday, as a deep trough of low pressure organizes just to our west.  The data this morning is still pointing to precipitation amounts averaging near 4cm (1.6"), which is very similar to what we received last weekend.  I've recorded 16.5cm (6.49") for the month of February up to this point, which is way above normal already.  It's looking like we could end up with double the amount of normal Feb rainfall.

even more moody... (pm.20.feb.13)>

Wednesday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 43.3F (6.3C)
Afternoon high temp: 57.6F (14.2C) -- at 2:20pm 
Rainfall: 0.15" (4mm)

The sunshine definitely won the weather battle until about 2:30pm today, but thereafter, we've had a mish-mash of clouds, peeks of sun, some fog, and even a period of showers with thunder between 3:30 and 5:00pm.  The foggy gloom has thickened once again just before sunset this evening.  Despite all that, my high temp today was the warmest in almost a week, but still several degrees below normal for the date.

There are scattered instability-induced thundershowers along the front ranges of the mountains from western Kashmir into central Himachal Pradesh, which should continue to die out after sunset.  The stage is now being set for our next significant weather-maker which is on its way for the weekend.  Upper-level low pressure will be gradually developing over Afghanistan and Pakistan during the coming 48 hours or so, then move across northern India between late Friday night and early Sunday.  Precipitation is already running well above normal for the month of February in our area, and it still looks like we are going to be adding significantly to the tally in the coming days.  Once again, there is a discrepancy among the various computer models -- from about 3 to 7cm (1.2-2.8") of liquid-equivalent precip being forecast -- but no matter how you slice it, it looks like a healthy amount is on the way.

Although temperatures will remain below normal for this time of year, right now it appears that it's going to be too warm for snow to make it much below the 2500m/8200ft level as this system moves through.  But please stay on top of updates, as we know how fickle (and unpredictable) the snow line can be.

There is no sign of a return to a quiet weather pattern next week, with an active jet stream and more potentially wet weather waiting in the wings.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

lingering clouds and fog giving way to mostly clear skies.

low: 7C (45F)

THURSDAY:

increasing clouds.  one or two showers possible during the PM.

high: 13C (56F)

THURSDAY NIGHT:

partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of a couple of rain showers.

low: 9C (48F)

FRIDAY:

clouds, with a peek or two of sun possible.  occasional periods of rain likely, with some thunder possible as well.

high: 13C (55F)

SATURDAY:

mostly cloudy and unseasonably cool, with periods of rain likely.

low: 7C (44F)

high: 10C (50F)

SUNDAY:

becoming partly cloudy, but still a chance of a couple of rain showers.

morning low: 5C (41F)

daytime high: 11C (52F)

MONDAY:

a mix of sun and clouds.  milder temps.

morning low: 7C (44F)

daytime high: 13C (56F)

another attempt... (am.20.feb.13)>

The sun is just now peeking over the mountains, with mostly clear skies across the area early this morning.  My overnight low here on Tushita Road below the Mountaineering Center has been 43.3F (6.3C), and the humidity is 54% to start the day.

Things look very nice at the moment, but the morning sun the past couple of days hasn't been able to hold on, with clouds and fog developing during the afternoon hours.  We'll have to be prepared for that to happen again today, thanks to this lingering moisture still in place along the front slopes of the mountains.  Also be aware of the risk of an isolated shower/thundershower during the late afternoon before skies clear again around or just after sunset.  If all of the gloom fails to develop today, then we'll just consider ourselves fortunate.

Our next storm system is still on track to begin affecting us late Thursday night or Friday.  As I mentioned last night, it looks very similar to our storm last weekend, apart from the fact that temperatures shouldn't be as cold.  Computer models are coming up with 2-4cm (0.8-1.6") of rainfall for our area by Sunday morning, with heavy snow likely in the mountains above 2500m/8200ft.

sun-clouds-fog... (pm.19.feb.13)>

Tuesday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 42.8F (6.0C)
Afternoon high temp: 54.7F (12.6C) -- at 2:45pm
Rainfall: trace

We've been dealing with thick clouds and fog once again late this afternoon/evening, but today it was a little later developing -- mainly after about 3pm.  I heard some thunder just before 4:30pm, and there have been a few sprinkles in town this evening.  Sunshine and occasional clouds from the morning into the early afternoon allowed our high temp to rise to its mildest since Thursday of last week.

Clouds should dissipate very quickly this evening after sunset, but with a moist air mass remaining trapped here along the mountains, we could see the same development of clouds, fog, and random sprinkles once again tomorrow.  Fortunately, there will be a few hours of sun as well, helping our temps to continue their slow moderation.  Definitely not a super pleasant late-winter pattern, but it could be worse.

And it looks like it will get worse as we approach the weekend.  Yet another significant storm system is expected to develop to our west by Friday, sweeping eastward across northern India on Saturday and perhaps into early Sunday.  This looks like nearly a repeat of what we just experienced last weekend, although the good news is that temperatures shouldn't be as cold this time around.  Even into next week the weather pattern should remain quite active, with little chance of a streak of sunny and warmer days.

TUESDAY NIGHT:

 a shower in the area this evening?  otherwise clearing skies.

low: 7C (44F)

WEDNESDAY:

both clouds and sun.  an isolated PM shower?

high: 13C (55F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

partly cloudy.

low: 7C (45F)

THURSDAY:

the sun/cloud battle continues.  temps still below normal for late feb.

high: 14C (57F)

FRIDAY:

clouds and a few peeks of sun.  good chance of a few rain showers in the area.

morning low: 9C (48F)

daytime high: 14C (57F)

SATURDAY:

mostly cloudy skies with periods of rain likely.  cooler.

morning low: 8C (46F)

daytime high: 11C (52F)

SUNDAY:

clouds giving way to some sun.  but still a chance of a couple of lingering showers.  too cool for the season!

morning low: 5C (41F)

daytime high: 11C (52F)