raindrops: scarce... (pm.02.jun.12)>

A warm and sunny June evening is underway, after the fourth day in a row of 90F+ temperatures.  I recorded a high temp of 90.9F (32.7C) around 1:00pm -- right before a period of rapid cloud development and even a couple of rumbles of thunder along with some random sprinkles of rain between 1:30 and 3:00pm.  Once again, there wasn't enough rain to measure, but we did get some gusty winds during the mid-afternoon which delivered some slightly more pleasant air for the balance of the day.

The build-up of clouds and brief light thundershowers around the area this afternoon were evidence of the cooler air in the upper atmosphere trying desperately to force out this huge mass of very warm air that has been firmly in control for the last several days.  The instability factor is going to remain marginal at best, as the heat wave over north India very slowly and gradually loosens its grip during the coming week.  Sunshine should maintain the majority, despite the slight risk of a period of thunder, mainly during the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours.  I see no strong evidence that we're going to get hit with anything that will provide us with the amount of rainfall we need after these last 4-5 weeks of generally dry weather.

The normal/average high temp in McLeod during the first week of June is around 84-85F (29C), but it looks like we'll have a hard time dropping below that next week -- apart from the miracle of a good rain.

SATURDAY NIGHT:

mostly clear skies.  still warm... with a slight chance of an isolated thundershower.

low: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY:

sunshine and occasional clouds.  still very warm, with isolated PM thunder possible.

high: 32C (89F)

SUNDAY NIGHT:

mostly clear.  warm.

low: 23C (74F)

MONDAY:

a mix of sunshine and some clouds.  summery warmth continues.

high: 32C (89F)

TUESDAY:

a mix of sun and clouds.

morning low: 23C (73F)

daytime high: 31C (88F)

WEDNESDAY:

partly cloudy and not quite as warm.  better chance of a thundershower developing.

morning low: 22C (72F)

daytime high: 30C (86F)

THURSDAY:

partly cloudy with a couple of thundershowers possible.

morning low: 22C (71F)

daytime high: 30C (86F)

heat streak goes on... (am.02.jun.12)>

We have mostly clear skies this morning at sunrise.  It's been another in a lengthening string of very warm nights -- my low temp here in the upper part of town has been 76.8F (24.9C).  There were a couple of very wimpy thundershowers which moved across Himachal Pradesh overnight, but they avoided us, leaving us with only a trace of rainfall during the past 48 hours.

Trying to squeeze a few showers out of this hot and dry air mass has been an unsuccessful prospect thus far.  Little pockets of colder air aloft have generated enough instability for a few clouds with thunder and gusty winds to develop from northern Pakistan into widely scattered areas of north India the last couple of evenings, but our serious moisture deficiency has been limiting.  So... although we can hold out hope for a random thundershower, I don't think chances are very good for picking up enough rainfall to provide us with much relief from this dry heat.  By Wednesday, there could be a more substantial burst of moisture heading our way from the Arabian Sea, which could give us a little better chance of some measurable rain.

Temperatures have come down slightly from our summer high of 93.4F (34.1C) on Thursday, but we'll still remain very close to 90F during the afternoons over the weekend... perhaps dropping a few more degrees as we approach the middle of the coming week.

SATURDAY:

sunny to partly cloudy and very warm.  an isolated thundershower possible.

high: 33C (91F)

SATURDAY NIGHT:

chance of a passing thundershower.  otherwise fair to partly cloudy and warm.

low: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY:

sunshine and a few clouds.  isolated PM thunder?

high: 32C (89F)

MONDAY:

still very warm, with sunny to partly cloudy skies.

morning low: 23C (74F)

daytime high: 32C (89F)

TUESDAY:

a mix of sun and some clouds.

morning low: 23C (73F)

daytime high: 31C (88F)

WEDNESDAY:

partly cloudy and not quite as warm.  a shower or thunderstorm possible.

morning low: 22C (72F)

daytime high: 30C (86F)

limited relief... (pm.01.jun.12)>

There are only a few clouds around, otherwise our sky is mostly clear during this hour before sunset.  Although we had more off-and-on cloudiness today than yesterday, temperatures were nearly as warm.  I recorded a high temp of 91.6F (33.1C), which is the third day in a row above 90F, and the second-highest temp of the year, behind yesterday's high of 93.4F (34.1C).  Records continue to be challenged all across north India in the midst of this memorable heatwave.

So far, our series of weak upper-level disturbances has been a disappointment.  Other than a period of thunder and gusty winds late last night, there has been very little thundershower development in response to the slightly cooler air arriving in the upper atmosphere.  We could still see some pockets of instability over the weekend which may ignite a shower or thunderstorm... but I remain skeptical of our prospects of getting blessed with any significant rainfall.  But with the teachings at TCV, and the football matches in progress this weekend, the situation bears watching.

Our overall pattern will change very little into the middle of next week, with a quiet flow aloft, and peak summer heat remaining entrenched in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  Wednesday looks to be the earliest that we may see much of a break in the heat -- along with a slightly better chance of some much-needed rain.

FRIDAY NIGHT:

 clear to partly cloudy and warm.  an isolated thundershower overnight?

low: 24C (76F)

SATURDAY:

sunny to partly cloudy.  very warm, with a risk of a thundershower.

high: 32C (90F)

SATURDAY NIGHT:

an isolated thundershower possible, otherwise clear to partly cloudy.

low: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY:

sunshine and a few clouds.  isolated PM thunder?

high: 32C (89F)

MONDAY:

sunny to partly cloudy.  warmth persists.

morning low: 23C (74F)

daytime high: 32C (89F)

TUESDAY:

a mix of sun and some clouds.

morning low: 23C (74F)

daytime high: 31C (88F)

WEDNESDAY:

partly cloudy and not quite as warm.  better chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

morning low: 23C (73F)

daytime high: 30C(86F)

blazing into june... (am.01.jun.12)>

It's a beautiful, but very warm morning.  A period of thunder and gusty winds overnight produced no rain, but did sweep the haze and dust away... at least temporarily.  I recorded a low temp of 77.4F (25.2C), which remains well above normal for any time of the year at our elevation.

We've turned the page to June, but it remains to be seen whether or not the near-record warmth of late May will be staying with us.  The huge bubble of high pressure over most of north India the last few days has been responsible for bringing severe heat wave conditions to a large area -- temps have been in the 45-48C (113-118F) range in places like Delhi, Chandigarh and Amritsar.  Even Dharamsala and Kangra have had temps in the range of the highest recorded in the past 10 years.

The thunder/wind overnight developed due to a weak disturbance in the upper atmosphere composed of some slightly colder air aloft.  Computer models are forecasting a few more of these little disturbances during the coming few days, which could bring us some heat relief in the form of a passing shower or thunderstorm.  I'm still not seeing a very good chance of significant rainfall, but at least a random thundershower might allow us to cool down a few degrees.  Honestly, we don't stand much of a chance of dropping to normal early June temperatures (84F/29C) until perhaps the latter half of next week...

FRIDAY:

a mix of sun and some clouds.  chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the area.  still very warm.

high: 32C (90F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:

a thunderstorm or two possible.  otherwise partly cloudy and warm.

low: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY:

sunshine and occasional clouds.  an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible.

high: 31C (88F)

SUNDAY:

sunny to partly cloudy.  some PM mountain thunder?

morning low: 22C (72F)

daytime high: 31C (88F)

MONDAY:

sunshine and a few clouds.  still very warm.

morning low: 23C (74F)

daytime high: 32C (89F)

TUESDAY:

a mix of sun and clouds.  summery warmth continues.

morning low: 23C (74F)

daytime high: 31C (88F)