a new high... (pm.02.apr.12)>

There are still billowing clouds over the mountains as we approach sunset this evening, other than that it's mostly clear.  Today turned out to be the warmest of the year... with a high temp of 79.2F (26.2C) on Tushita Road in the upper part of Mcleod Ganj.  I've recorded no rainfall... but we did have some thunder rumbling in the mountains during the mid-afternoon.

The mountain thunder was evidence of the changing dynamics of our air mass during the past 12-24 hours or so. Although it is still very warm from the surface into the mid-levels, the upper-levels are cooling a bit, and that has been setting the stage for increasing instability.  Warmer air rising into the cooler air aloft condenses into cumulus clouds... and can grow further into cumulonimbus (thundershowers)... which is what we saw happening this afternoon.  Our chances of significant rainfall remain questionable (unfortunately), but at least the pattern is favorable for this random shower and thunder action off and on through the coming week -- especially during the afternoon and night time hours.

The balance during the coming few days will still tip in favor of sunshine, while temperatures remain a few degrees above normal for early April.  We're really getting spoiled by this unseasonably warm weather... which makes it feel more like the latter half of April.  No major cooling trends anticipated in the near term...

MONDAY NIGHT:

risk of a shower or thundershower in the vicinity before midnight... otherwise partly cloudy and very mild.

low: 18C (65F)

TUESDAY:

both sunshine and some clouds.  a passing thundershower possible.  still warm!

high: 25C (77F)

TUESDAY NIGHT:

a thundershower?  otherwise partly cloudy.

low: 17C (63F)

WEDNESDAY:

partly cloudy and warm.  isolated PM thundershower?

high: 24C (75F)

THURSDAY:

a mix of sun and clouds.

morning low: 17C (62F)

daytime high: 24C (75F)

FRIDAY:

partly cloudy with a risk of a PM thundershower.

morning low: 17C (63F)

daytime high: 24C (76F)

SATURDAY:

sunshine and some clouds at times.  remaining warm...

morning low: 17C (63F)

daytime high: 24C (76F)

changing pattern... (am.02.apr.12)>

It certainly does not feel like an early April morning out there... unseasonably mild again just before sunrise.  I've recorded an overnight low of 64.9F (18.3C), and the humidity stands at 38%.

Our upper atmospheric pattern is in a state of transition effective immediately... which will lead to increasing instability this week.  There's plenty of sunshine early this morning, but we should see some clouds develop as the day wears on, leading to some scattered showers and thundershowers, mainly over the mountains, this afternoon and evening.  That routine should repeat itself tomorrow as well.  This is due to the fact that warm air at the surface is expected to remain in place, while cooler air gradually filters in aloft.  As I mentioned last night, this is not an organized "storm system"... but the atmosphere will be disturbed just enough this week to keep the chance of random showers and/or thundershowers in the forecast.  Be on guard if you have plans to be out and about, away from shelter.

Right through Friday, there is no real evidence that this unseasonably mild air mass is going to retreat... so expect temperatures to remain well above normal for early April!

MONDAY:

sunshine early, then increasing clouds.  chance of a shower or thundershower during the PM.  still warm.

high: 25C (77F)

MONDAY NIGHT:

a couple of showers or perhaps a thunderstorm in the area.  otherwise partly cloudy.

low: 18C (64F)

TUESDAY:

a mix of clouds and sun.  still a risk of a passing shower or thundershower.

high: 24C (76F)

WEDNESDAY:

partly cloudy... remaining quite warm.

morning low: 17C (63F)

daytime high: 24C (75F)

THURSDAY:

both clouds and sun... slight chance of a PM thundershower.

morning low: 17C (62F)

daytime high: 24C (75F)

FRIDAY:

sun and occasional clouds.  risk of a PM thundershower.

morning low: 17C (63F)

daytime high: 24C (76F)

here to stay... (pm.01.apr.12)>

We have a mix of sun, clouds and haze just before sunset this evening.  At my place, today turned out to be the second warmest day of 2012 (behind Friday, 30th March) with a high temperature of 75.9F (24.4C).  This is about 2C/4F above normal for the first day of April.  There were a few raindrops in the upper part of town between 4:30 and 5:00pm, thanks to some ripe towering cumulus clouds over the mountains.  Humidity has crept up a bit... up to 44% during the late afternoon.

Today was the fourth day in a row with a high temp in excess of 21C/70F, and there are no signs of that streak coming to an end during the next several days.  Although our ridge of high pressure aloft is already collapsing, unseasonably warm air will remain encamped from the surface into the mid-levels of the atmosphere.  Add to that an intrusion of slightly cooler air in the upper-atmosphere and a few weak disturbances moving through... and we get a recipe for an increasing chance of some scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two.

We're not talking about an organized storm system, just the kind of prolonged moderate instability that will keep sunshine battling with occasional clouds, while thundershowers try to develop over the mountains.  I'm still not impressed with our chances of significant rainfall during the next several days... but considering the dry weather of the past three weeks or so, we'll take what we can get!

SUNDAY NIGHT:

an isolated shower/thundershower... otherwise partly cloudy and unseasonably mild.

low: 18C (64F)

MONDAY:

both clouds and hazy sunshine.  risk of a shower or thundershower.

high: 24C (76F)

MONDAY NIGHT:

chance of a thundershower passing through.  partly cloudy.

low: 17C (63F)

TUESDAY:

a shower or thunderstorm possible.  partly cloudy and warm.

high: 24C (75F)

WEDNESDAY:

a mix of sun and clouds.  remaining warm.

morning low: 17C (62F)

daytime high: 24C (75F)

THURSDAY:

more hazy sunshine and occasional clouds.

morning low: 18C (64F)

daytime high: 24C (76F)

FRIDAY:

clouds and sun... chance of a PM thundershower.

morning low: 18C (64F)

daytime high: 24C (76F)

april's arrival... (am.01.apr.12)>

We won't be seeing much of the sun as it rises over the mountains early this morning... due to a fairly thick layer of high clouds across the area.  It is another unseasonably mild morning, however... I've recorded an overnight low temp of 64.8F (18.2C), which is the warmest of the season.  Humidity is a bit higher this morning, at 40%.

Satellite photos indicate that this high cloudiness will give way to some sunshine later this morning into the afternoon, which is going to allow temperatures to really warm up.  It looks probable that this first day of April will be the warmest day of the year thus far... not only here... but across other parts of north India as well.

The big dome of high pressure in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere that has been in control during the past few days is going to be breaking down, starting late tonight.  We'll be back in the mode of watching a series of weak disturbances in the atmosphere track from Afghanistan through Pakistan and north India for much of the coming week.  But the emphasis is on WEAK, and since the air mass will remain relatively dry, rain showers will be few and far between.  Right now it looks like Monday and Tuesday hold the best potential of picking up some showers... but I'm really not very enthused about our chances of anything significant.

Despite the change in the upper-air pattern, warm air is going to stay firmly entrenched at the surface... so temperatures should remain a few degrees (or more) above normal right into the latter part of the week.  That means summer heat will continue to build, unhindered, to our south on the plains...

(new podcast posted last night... discussion of march stats.  on the right-hand sidebar>>)

SUNDAY:

a mix of clouds and sunshine.  WARM start to APRIL.

high: 25C (77F)

SUNDAY NIGHT:

chance of a shower or thundershower moving through.  otherwise partly cloudy and mild.

low: 18C (65F)

MONDAY:

partly cloudy and warm.  risk of a shower or thundershower.

high: 25C (77F)

TUESDAY:

one or two thundershowers possible... otherwise partly cloudy.

morning low: 17C (63F)

daytime high: 24C (75F)

WEDNESDAY:

sunshine and a few clouds.

morning low: 17C (62F)

daytime high: 24C (75F)

THURSDAY:

both sunshine and clouds.  still warm.

morning low: 17C (62F)

daytime high: 24C (76F)