positive changes... (pm.04.mar.11)

at dusk this evening we have mostly cloudy skies with quite a bit of fog around.  the humidity is 91% at the moment.  our high temp today was 48.4F (9.1C), and i recorded an additional 0.51" (1.3cm) of precipitation since the last report this morning.  that brings us up to 2.50" (6.4cm) since all this stuff began on monday night.

what a day... we've had a few peeks of sunshine... but also one heck of a fierce hailstorm between 1:00 and 1:30pm.  the ground was completely covered with pea to marble-sized hail in the main square of mcleod ganj... and we had at least two cloud-to-ground lightning strikes in the neighborhood.  right now, the atmosphere is realigning itself, so we will be in a bit of a state of transition for the next day or so.  i think the tail-end of this week's weather system will linger into tomorrow, the first day of TIBETAN LOSAR, giving us a fairly good chance of more scattered rain showers.  at the same time, temperatures are warming up, both at the surface and aloft, and that should allow us to see a bit more sun.

although i'm not expecting a string of totally sunny days, we will be into more of a fair weather pattern as we move into the new week.  also, temperatures are going to finally approach the normal range for the first part of march.  random afternoon showers are still not out of the question, but there should be general agreement that we are moving in the right direction...

FRIDAY NIGHT: occasional clouds and fog.  still a good chance of a few showers and possible thunder.
low: 7C (45F)

SATURDAY (first day of LOSAR): partly to mostly cloudy skies.  still the risk of some scattered showers in the area (mainly during the morning).  milder!
high: 13C (55F)

SUNDAY: warming trend, with a mix of clouds and sunshine... only a slight chance of a brief PM shower.
high: 15C (59F)

MONDAY: partly sunny and pleasantly mild.
high: 16C (60F)

TUESDAY: a mix of clouds and sun.  still pleasant.
high: 16C (60F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy... risk of a shower or two.
high: 14C (58F)

lingering wetness... (am.04.mar.11)>

skies are cloudy with scattered showers early this morning, and the current temp is 42.8F (6.0C).  since last report, we've picked up another 0.10" (2.5mm) of rain... bringing our storm total (since monday night) up to 1.99" (5.1cm).  we also had a few rumbles of thunder overnight, but nothing intense at all.

our upper-level storm system remains parked just to our west, but will begin to shift eastward and finally weaken during the next 24 hours.  it looks like we will continue to be under the gun for occasional rain and possibly a thundershower or two along with some gusty winds between now and tomorrow morning.  it's not going to rain continuously (and we'll probably even see some breaks in the clouds), but there is a still a good chance that we could see another period of moderate to heavy rainfall before this is all over.  as you can see by looking at the mountains, the snow line has remained very high... so heavy snow is going to stay up towards triund.

i am happy to report that we have a fairly major "pattern shift" on the way for the coming week.  temperatures in all levels of the atmosphere are expected to warm considerably, and the seemingly constant parade of upper-level disturbances will wane.  i think we are finally going to get at least a taste of springtime weather by the second and third days of tibetan losar...

FRIDAY: clouds with a few peeks of sun.  occasional periods of rain still likely, though.  gusty winds, with a chance of a thunderstorm or two as well.
high: 9C (49F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: still a good chance of some rain and thunder, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.
low: 7C (44F)

SATURDAY (first day of losar): scattered showers may linger... especially in the AM.  otherwise becoming partly cloudy and milder.
high: 12C (54F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny skies.  a big warm-up...
high: 15C (59F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny and pleasant.
high: 16C (60F)

TUESDAY: a mix of sun and clouds, with a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 15C (59F)

it's not over yet... (pm.03.mar.11)>

there are scattered showers in the area this evening, under cloudy skies.  our high temp today reached 49.3F (9.6C), and here at the top of mcleod ganj, i've recorded an additional 0.15" (4mm) of rain since this morning's report.  that brings our total rainfall since monday night up to 1.89" (4.8cm).

it looks like we have at least one more round of significant rainfall coming between now and late friday night... and then maybe we can say goodbye to this persistently dreary, damp and cold weather system that has been hanging around for most of the week.  satellite pics this evening indicate the center of circulation over central pakistan... with lots of thick cloud cover and moisture being drawn northward ahead of it into northern india.  i think there's a good chance we could see another inch(+) of rain later tonight and friday, before this system starts to wind down.  the snow line is remaining very high... and due to milder air being pulled in from the south, i don't expect significant snow to occur below about 2200-2300m (7200-7500ft).  but above that, very heavy snow will continue to pile up.

we may still have some scattered, light showers around for the start of tibetan losar on saturday... but i think improvement will occur rapidly after that... with a major warming trend and hopefully a streak of drier days as we head into next week...

THURSDAY NIGHT: periods of rain likely... with some thunder possible as well.  gusty winds at times.
low: 6C (42F)

FRIDAY: occasional rain will continue... along with gusty winds at times and possible thunderstorms.  otherwise mostly cloudy.
high: 9C (49F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: a good chance of more rain showers and thundershowers.
low: 6C (43F)

SATURDAY: scattered showers most likely in the morning... otherwise becoming partly cloudy and milder.
high: 12C (53F)

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds and sunshine.  warming up a bit more...
high: 13C (56F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny and pleasant!
high: 15C (59F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly sunny...
high: 16C (60F)

more rain on the way... (am.03.mar.11)>

we have thick clouds and a few light sprinkles around the area early this morning... with a temp of 41.5F (5.3C).  i just checked the rain gauge... 1.25" (3.2cm) since last night's report... which brings the total rainfall since monday night up to 1.74" (4.4cm).  it appears that we are in the midst of a break in the action at the moment, but there will be more to come...

lots of interesting things happening weather-wise during the next several days.  current satellite photos are showing this latest wave of energy which brought heavy rain overnight now departing to the east.  but there is yet another impulse moving northeastward out of southern pakistan, and that should deliver the next round of significant rain and possibly a thunderstorm during the next 24-36 hours.  after that, the tail end of this system will keep us in a good chance of some scattered, lighter showers from friday night into early saturday.  in the meantime, the snow line is quite high, but heavy snow will continue to fall above 2300m/7500ft.

now... here's the good news.  there has been consistent evidence on all the computer models that a significantly drier and milder weather pattern is going to set in by the first part of next week.  i think we could all use a taste of spring...

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy and cool with more periods of rain likely, along with a chance of a thunderstorm. 
high: 9C (48F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: rain likely, with a thunderstorm or two possible as well.  gusty winds at times.
low: 6C (42F)

FRIDAY: occasional rain and thunderstorms.  windy at times.
high: 9C (49F)

SATURDAY (first day of Tibetan Losar): best chance of showers in the morning... then a bit of clearing possible as the day goes on.  a bit milder.
high: 12C (53F)

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds and sun... a nicer day..
high: 13C (56F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny... warmest day in more than a month?
high: 15C (59F)