winter holds as feb arrives... (pm.31.jan.19)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 33.8ºF (1.0ºC) -- at 9:00pm
High temp: 47.1ºF (8.4ºC)
Precipitation: 1.33" (3.4cm) -- total thru mdnt
*Snowfall: around 1.5" (4cm) -- between 830p and mdnt*

Snow has been mixing in with the rain and the temp has dropped significantly at my location in the upper part of town during the last half hour or so, and you can see from the stats above that we've had a very cold and wet day.  I don't think there has been any sunshine at all during the last two days, as this storm system has been bearing down on us.

The upper-level low pressure center driving this latest round of wet and wintry weather is now located in northern Pakistan, and contrary to computer model prognostications, continues to strengthen.  As it does so, temperatures continue to fall in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, and that is making it a bit more possible/likely that the snow line could come further downhill overnight into early Friday morning.  As is usually the case in the middle of winter, we here in McLeod Ganj find ourselves very close to that demarcation between liquid and frozen precipitation.

This system should weaken and most of the moisture move east of us as our Friday progresses, which means that rain/snow chances will diminish by late afternoon or evening.  That will set us up for improving conditions over the weekend, with some milder temperatures moving in for the very early part of next week.

But, I have to report that all the models are still suggesting the potential for a major winter storm system with the coldest air of this winter season during the middle of next week (Tibetan Losar).  The arrival of February will not be ushering in anything milder, drier or more pleasant than what we've experienced for most of January.  Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for forecast specs.

a wet end to january... (pm.30.jan.19)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 39.4ºF (4.1ºC) -- at 5:00pm
High temp: 48.8ºF (9.3ºC)
Precipitation: 0.35" (9mm) -- total thru mdnt

Our incoming storm system is pretty much on track, with a few light sprinkles materializing around 11:15-11:30am, and then nearly steady light rain showers by 1:00pm, which continued for the rest of the afternoon into the evening.  Right now there is a break in the rain, but that may not last for very long.

An upper-level low pressure center moving into northern Afghanistan will head into northern Pakistan during the next 24-36 hours, and that will keep us in a favorable position to receive several periods of light to moderate rain here at our elevation, with another dose of significant snowfall in the hills and mountains above.  Precipitation should start to diminish by mid-day Friday, but this system will probably linger until either late Friday night or early Saturday morning.  It still looks like we should miss out on most of the snow here in McLeod, but we'll have to brace and be on guard for changes and adjustments in conditions, nonetheless.

Things are looking relatively quiet and somewhat milder over the weekend into very early next week -- BUT -- models are showing a much stronger and more ominous-looking winter storm system during Losar (next Tuesday thru Thursday).  That's still well into the future, but it would be a good idea to keep tabs on how things evolve...

new storm system approaching... (pm.29.jan.19)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 37.9ºF (3.3ºC)
High temp: 49.8ºF (9.9ºC)
Precipitation: none

We had sunshine with waves of thin high cloudiness today, until some thicker high clouds started to appear toward sunset.  Although it was slightly milder, it's still been eight days in a row during which I have not recorded a high temperature above 50ºF (10ºC).

The next storm system of our busy mid-winter season is now getting itself organized well to our west over northeastern Iran this evening, and will bring increasing chances of precipitation across our area by tomorrow (Wed) afternoon.  This one is not in the same calibur of intensity as the storm that lingered around here for much of last week, but the latest data indicates that there could be in excess of an inch (2.5cm) of rain here in the vicinity of McLeod, which translates into around a foot of snow in the higher elevations above.  We'll have to keep an eye on temperatures and that rain/snow line, as always.  The heaviest rain/snow should occur between Wednesday night and mid-day Friday.

We should have a breather over the weekend, but then things start to get dicey again by next Tuesday, the first day of Tibetan Losar.  A major winter storm could affect us for the rest of Losar, with snow and very cold temps...

Forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

temporarily quiet and milder... (pm.28.jan.19)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 36.0ºF (2.2ºC)
High temp: 48.8ºC (9.3ºC)
Precipitation: trace

We had gorgeous clear skies and sunshine this morning, with the expected build-up of cloudiness over the mountains during the afternoon.  Then... there was a brief period of gusty winds and light snow showers right around 4:00pm, as convective activity up-mountain from us fell apart as the heating of the sun diminished.  Today's high temperature at around 2:30pm was the warmest I've recorded in exactly one week.

Our weather is looking pretty good for the next day and a half or so, with moderating temperatures and very little chance of precipitation in the forecast.  We should see plentiful sunshine tomorrow (Tue), but increasing clouds by either tomorrow night or early Wednesday morning.  A brand new storm system will begin to affect us with an increasing chance of rain showers by mid-afternoon on Wednesday, with some significant rainfall possible on Wednesday night through Thursday night.  There is a chance that the rain could mix with or turn to snow late Thursday into Friday, but the air mass associated with this incoming system isn't as cold as what we dealt with last week, so at least at this point, snow right here in McLeod looks less likely.

Those fickle computer models are now back ON, with regard to a potentially significant storm system during Losar (next Tue-Thu), so our very active mid-winter pattern remains with us.

very slow recovery... (pm.27.jan.19)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 36.5ºF (2.5ºC)
High temp: 46.7ºF (8.2ºC)
Precipitation: 0.03" (less than 1mm) -- trace of snow

There was a lot of back-and-forth between sunshine and clouds today, and also a surprise period of snow showers and even a clap or two of thunder between roughly 3:15 and 4:30pm.  Although temperatures here at ground level were well above freezing, there is still a very cold air mass hovering overhead -- cold enough to generate convection, and those snow grains/pellets during the late afternoon.

That very cold air aloft is reluctant to get out of here, and with sunshine causing warming in the surface layers tomorrow morning, we could see another brief rain/snow shower during the afternoon.  Milder air will try to nudge its way in on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a good amount of sunshine Tuesday, but then rapidly increasing cloudiness again on Wednesday, ahead of yet another storm system.

The risk of some rain showers will appear by Wednesday evening, with a good chance of some periods of light rain Wednesday night and Thursday.  This next system is currently looking to be too warm for snow in and around McLeod Ganj, but there will be more snow added to the massive pack in the higher elevations above town.  We're still watching a fickle and changeable pattern as we move toward Losar, though the latest computer models are not looking as ugly as they were a couple of days ago.  Of course we'll keep watch.

Forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

bottoming out... (pm.25.jan.19)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 33.3ºF (0.7ºC)
High temp: 40.9ºF (4.9ºC)
Melted precipitation: 0.32" (8mm)
Snow accumulation: 2.5" (6.4cm)

Today has been the coldest of this winter season, in spite of the fact that we had a couple of nice periods of sunshine during the middle of the day.  Of course the most memorable event was the two to three hours of light to moderate snow during the morning hours.  At my place in the upper part of town, the vast majority of that snowfall occurred between about 7:10 and 10:30am... and it was absolutely gorgeous to see.  In and around McLeod Ganj proper, amounts were in the range of 1.5 to about 3 inches... but I've heard reports of 6-7" in Dharamkot, and close to a foot near Galu Temple.

It's been six days now that we've been under the influence of this sprawling low pressure system dominating the weather all across the western Himalayan region.  But we are finally on the back-end of this thing, with improving weather in the forecast over the weekend into the first part of the coming week.  There will still be a mix of clouds and sun, but the rain/snow shower potential will be diminishing... as temperatures struggle upward, slowly and gradually.

Further ahead, the weather pattern looks like it will continue to be active, however, with another storm system threatening by either very late Wednesday or Thursday... and then another right around the time of Tibetan Losar, toward the end of the first week of February.

mid-winter elements... (pm.24.jan.19)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 35.8ºF (2.1ºC)
High temp: 43.8ºF (6.6ºC)
Precipitation: none

The upper-level low pressure circulation center which spawned our heavy rain/snow earlier this week is not dead and gone just yet.  It is still sitting and spinning over northern Pakistan, and still drawing what remaining moisture is available northward and up against the Dhauladhars.  This is what has kept a lot of cloudiness around today, and has even led to more random rain and snow showers scattered around the area during the last 24 hours -- though I've recorded no precipitation here at my location since late last evening.

The coldest air mass of this winter season is still hanging around as well, and will team up with our dying upper-level system to keep a few rain and/or snow showers in our forecast through tomorrow (Fri) night or very early Saturday morning.

It looks like our atmosphere will gradually stabilize, finally, over the course of the weekend into early next week, bringing us a better percentage of sunshine.  Temperatures will start to moderate by Sunday, but maybe not by much.  And then... yet another storm system could be organizing by late Wednesday into Thursday of next week.

Forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab, above.

instability lingers... (pm.23.jan.19)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 36.1ºF (2.3ºC)
High temp: 45.2ºF (7.3ºC)
Precipitation: 0.09" (2mm) -- updated: rain/sleet showers during late evening

Snowfall reports/estimates (Mon-Tue):
McLeod Ganj market: 2"
Mountaineering center: 4-6"
Dharamkot: 10-18"
Upper Bhagsu: 12-18"
Galu Temple: 2 ft.
Magic View: 2.5 ft.
Triund: 3.5-4 ft.

This morning there was a good amount of hazy sunshine for a few hours, but clouds increased rapidly toward mid-day, with some thunder and snow showers in the mountains above us this afternoon.  I noticed a few sprinkles of light rain around 3:30pm, but that was the only precipitation here at my location for the day.  Temperatures were milder than expected, due to that AM sunshine, but still at least a couple of degrees colder than normal for late January.

What's left of our upper-level storm system continues to sit and spin right along the Afghanistan/Pakistan border, just about due west of Srinagar.  As I mentioned last night, most of the deeper/richer moisture has been pushed well east of us, but whatever lingering moisture remains is still being lifted and condensed into cloudiness and random rain/snow showers, and that dynamic is going to stay with us through late Friday or very early Saturday.  Also, this very cold air mass is going to hang around into the middle of the weekend before it finally starts to retreat and be replaced with something a bit milder.

Monday and Tuesday are looking bright and pleasant for the mid-winter season, but then yet another developing storm system will threaten us during the latter half of next week.

winter wallop... (pm.22.jan.19)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 34.0ºF (1.1ºC)
High temp: 42.4ºF (5.8ºC)
Melted precipitation: 2.72" (6.9cm)
Snow accumulation: 2.5 - 3.0" (near 7cm)
Storm total melted precip since Monday: 3.27" (8.3cm)

As temperatures have never really dipped below freezing, there is a lot of melting and dripping going on this evening, after occasional periods of snow (in the midst of bouts of moderate rain) throughout the day.  The most impressive and enjoyable episode of snowfall here in McLeod Ganj occurred this evening between about 4:45 and 6:20pm, when we had the most accumulation.

Although there is a good chance of more off and on rain and snow showers overnight, and then at least the possibility of some scattered rain/snow showers all the way through Friday, it appears that the vast majority of the real BITE of this storm system may have passed.  Temperatures remain cold, and unless we get some decent periods of sunshine, will rebound little until the latter part of the weekend into early next week.

Huge amounts of snow have piled up in the higher elevations above town... on the order of two to four feet between Galu and Triund.  Yes, it has been a good one.!

Check forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

getting into the thick of it... (pm.21.jan.19)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 39.6ºF (4.2ºC)
High temp: 55.0ºF (12.8ºC)
Precipitation: 0.55" (1.4cm)
(all stats updated through midnight)

Moderate rain is in progress at this moment, here at the end of a day which featured some very gusty winds at times, generally cloudy skies, and several short periods of mainly light rain showers.  Temperatures this morning were much milder than expected, but then began to drop once the rain showers started to materialize.  The low temp you see there in the stats above is actually what the thermometer is showing right now.

The center of our upper-level low pressure system is currently located over northcentral Afghanistan, and will move very little as it sits and spins and spins and spins and spins for the next few days.  This is going to keep us in line for wave after wave of precipitation to develop and move in from the south-southwest -- as much colder air continues to filter in from the north and northwest.  This clash of air masses basically right on top of Himalayan north India will produce widespread moderate to heavy rain and snow into at least early Wednesday morning.

The exact placement of the lower extent of the accumulating snow is always very hard to determine until it actually materializes... so it is going to be interesting to watch and wait and see how things evolve over the course of the next 36 hours or so.  And then, we can look forward to some gradual improvement by the latter part of the week, with precipitation totally out of the forecast by Saturday or Sunday...

Stay tuned for pertinent updates, and check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for local forecast details.

colder, wetter, whiter... (pm.20.jan.19)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 48.7ºF (9.3ºC)
High temp: 54.6ºF (12.6ºC)
Precipitation: trace

We only had a little bit of dim sunshine this morning, as clouds moved in and thickened up all throughout the day.  I first noticed a few sprinkles of very light rain around 2:15pm, with other random raindrops and brief periods of drizzle during the late afternoon and early evening.  With all the cloudiness, temperatures didn't move very much.

The winter storm system moving into Himalayan north India is one of the most robust we've seen in a long time, and has the strong potential to impact a very wide area with heavy precipitation (both rain and snow) over the course of the next four or five days.  The upper-level low pressure center is now located over extreme northeastern Iran, and will move into central Afghanistan by early Tuesday... then stall out in that vicinity for the rest of the week.  All the ingredients necessary for a major winter storm scenario are assembling... a good amount of moisture, plenty of lifting of that moisture due to a strong southwesterly flow aloft running straight up against the mountains, and an influx of the coldest air of this winter season thus far coming in from the north-northwest.

Models are very consistent in showing precipitation amounts in the range of 2.5 to 3.5" (6.5 to 9cm) between now and mid-day Wednesday -- which means areas uphill of the rain/snow line are likely to receive two to three feet of snow.  Those forecast amounts may actually end up on the conservative side.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK for forecast details for our immediate area here in McLeod Ganj...

winter storm developing... (pm.19.jan.19)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 49.1ºF (9.5ºC)
High temp: 58.7ºF (14.8ºC)
Precipitation: none

Today's high temp was the warmest I've recorded since the 31st of December, and about 9ºF (5ºC) above normal for this time of year.  We had a good amount of sunshine in the morning, but clouds became more prominent by about 2:00pm, and it remained mostly cloudy for the remainder of the day.

This time last night I mentioned that we would be in a 'waiting' period this weekend, and that is indeed the case.  The storm system which is going to move in and dominate our weather situation during this coming week is still in a state of evolution and development, with the center of the upper-level low pressure circulation still hanging way back over the Caspian Sea.  An unseasonably mild air mass is being drawn northward ahead of this system, as wave after wave of mid- and high cloudiness also develops and moves across northern India.

There could be a few widely scattered light rain showers popping up during the coming 24 hours or so, but the main event, as far as precipitation is concerned, still looks like it won't get started until the period between very late Sunday night and about mid-day Monday.  At the same time, much colder air will begin to filter in, with a mix of rain and snow likely all the way until about mid-day Wednesday... with lingering rain/snow showers continuing after that.  Temperatures profiles indicate that moderate to heavy snow could threaten areas very close to McLeod Ganj... with two to three feet of snow (or more) appearing likely in higher elevations.  Stay tuned...

signs point to major changes... (pm.18.jan.19)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 44.6ºF (7.0ºC)
High temp: 55.2ºF (12.9ºC)
Precipitation: none

Today's high temperature... very mild for the middle of January... occurred during the late morning, before clouds quickly moved in and temperatures fell a few degrees as the afternoon progressed.

We're in for a couple of days of 'waiting' over this weekend, in advance of a significant winter storm system which still appears to be on track to begin moving in either very late Sunday night or Monday.  Moderate to heavy precipitation is being forecast by most of the computer models, especially on Monday into early Wednesday... and there is a good chance that much of that could be in the form of snow, near and just up-mountain from us here in McLeod.  A much colder airmass will arrive shortly after the precipitation cranks up, so we need to start getting prepared for the possibility of some true winter-time weather around here...

mild, with increasing clouds... (pm.17.jan.19)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 41.9ºF (5.5ºC)
High temp: 53.3ºF (11.8ºC)
Precipitation: none

It's been a gorgeous mid-January, mid-winter day, with tons of sunshine and only a few PM mountain cumulus clouds.  Temperatures are running just a bit above normal for the season.

Although we're going to be seeing an increase in mainly high cloudiness starting tomorrow (Fri), a milder airmass is surging northward at the same time, and depending on the interplay between clouds and sun, we could be seeing some unseasonably warm temperatures over this coming weekend.  All of this is happening in advance of an evolving/developing winter storm system which is heading our way next week, and just might hang around for at least four or five days.

The center of that developing upper-level low pressure system is located over the southeastern Caspian Sea right now -- and of course that is a long distance to our west-northwest.  Computer models are tracking this system into the western Himalayas by late Sunday into Monday, as it pulls moisture northward ahead of it.  At the same time, the coldest air of this winter season will be drawn into the mix, setting the stage for a potentially significant winter storm event in our area starting very late Sunday night or Monday.  It is way too early to pin down a rain/snow line, but it certainly seems likely that there will be huge amounts of snow along the Dhauladhar range... and that's great news.

january variability... (pm.16.jan.19)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 43.5ºF (6.4ºC)
High temp: 52.8ºF (11.6ºC)
Precipitation: none

Some snow showers have occurred along the Dhauladhars during the past 24 hours, but as far as I've seen there has been no precipitation whatsoever here in our immediate area.  We've had plenty of cloudiness, however... as mild temperatures this morning gave way to that anticipated push of cooler air which arrived around mid-day, and caused our temps to fall several degrees throughout the afternoon.

There's very little to be concerned about during the coming two or three days... as temperatures gradually moderate again, into a range that will be significantly milder than normal for the middle of January.  Sunshine will be available, but there will be another increase in clouds on the way as we progress through the weekend.

A huge upper-level low pressure system is going to ease in from the west, causing that increase in weekend cloudiness.  This system still looks very ominous, and could very well be the most intense winter storm we've experienced this season thus far, bringing a mix of rain and snow beginning either Sunday night or Monday.  Right now the models are showing an off and on mix of wintry precipitation and progressively colder temperatures through much of next week.  For weathergeeks... this one should be interesting to follow.

an unsettled period... (pm.15.jan.19)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 41.9ºF (5.5ºC)
High temp: 54.1ºF (12.3ºC)
Precipitation: none

There were the expected waves of high cirrus clouds moving overhead today, but we had a lot of sunshine in between those waves of cloudiness.  And with a milder airmass nudging its way into our area, we had the second-warmest high temperature of the month this afternoon.

Lots of cloudiness still lurks just to our west, however, as a weak but sprawling upper-level disturbance moves into and across the western Himalayan region.  A few random showers are quite possible somewhere around our general area during the next 36 hours or so, as a fresh batch of cooler air surges southward.  But then our atmosphere will stabilize again by Thursday morning, with another moderation in temperatures expected as we head into the weekend.

Further out... we're still watching the models wrestle with a developing series of storm systems next week.  The jury is out and deliberating as to how all of this might come together and affect our weather, but there are still indications and hints of some significant rain and snow off and on starting as early as late Sunday, and continuing through much of the following week.

Check tabs above for other info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK...

less sun in days ahead... (pm.14.jan.19)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 39.0ºF (3.9ºC)
High temp: 51.1ºF (10.6C)
Precipitation: none

It was great to have such a sunny day on this Monday, because we may be seeing a lot more cloudiness during the next week to ten days.  Our weather pattern is going to be more disturbed again starting tomorrow... as a weak upper-level system moves across the western Himalayas.  Precipitation chances will be fairly good in the the higher elevations north-northeast of us between Tuesday night and early Thursday, but not so good here in our immediate area.  Still, the risk of a few rain showers exists for us during that period.

Fast-forward to the weekend... a major winter storm system is being forecast by the major computer models to develop over central Asia, spreading more cloudiness our way.  In the last 24hrs the timing has slowed by about 12-18hrs, with the best chances of rain and snow development now pushed back to either very late Sunday or Monday of next week.  That is a long way out by weather prediction standards, but as of right now, it looks like we could be dealing with a few days in a row of cold and wet/white weather during the first half of next week.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK on the tab above for evolving forecast specs.

calm in the near-term... (pm.13.jan.19)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 36.0ºF (2.2ºC)
High temp: 46.9ºF (8.3ºC)
Precipitation: 0.25" (6mm)
Total precip since Sat night: 0.33" (8mm)

The rain/snow line last night into early this morning only made it down as far as upper Dharamkot, with only a few brief snowflakes that melted on contact with the ground any further downhill.  There were a couple of little rain/snow squalls that lasted into mid-morning, and then some thunder over the mountains during the early afternoon... but the main trend today was toward increasing amounts of sunshine as skies gradually cleared.  And though quite cold, it was a nice, calm and quiet evening to enjoy the Lohri puja and bonfire in the main square.

Our weather looks basically uneventful during the next couple of days, with moderating temperatures.  A fast-moving upper-level system will zip across the area between late Tuesday night and early Thursday, bringing some cloudiness and at least a small chance of some passing light rain showers with it.  Then there will be another break in the action until perhaps mid-day Saturday when we may start to feel the first effects of what could be a very significant winter storm system affecting our area into the first part of the following week.  Way way way way too early to tell exactly what might happen, but at least the pattern this January is keeping us on our toes...

limited impact... (am.13.jan.19)>

I've recorded 0.33" (8mm) of rain and melted snow overnight here at my location on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center.  The low temp has been 36.0ºF (2.2ºC), at least as of 8:00am.

An upper-level low pressure circulation is centered over extreme northwestern Kashmir early this morning... moving eastward.  The limited moisture supply ahead of that circulation will be pushed east of us this morning... so apart from a few periods of rain and snow showers around the area between now and maybe early afternoon, most of the precipitation should be over.  As we were expecting, this system has paled in comparison to what we were dealing with exactly one week ago... but still, there have been several inches of fresh snow deposited in the higher elevations above town.

Things will clear out and quiet down a bit early this week, but the pattern will remain active, with more weather to look out for during the coming week to ten days...  THE 7-DAY OUTOOK (above) features the forecast details.

another brush with winter... (pm.11.jan.19)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 41.9ºF (5.5ºC)
High temp: 51.5ºF (10.8ºC)
Precipitation: none

Apart from some occasional waves of cloudiness, we've seen very little evidence of our next approaching storm system thus far.  The center of an upper-level low pressure circulation is located over southeastern Uzbekistan this evening, and is expected to move slowly southeastward during the next 36-48 hours.  Moisture is being drawn east-northeastward ahead of the area of low pressure... and although it is not a great amount, we all know that even a little bit of mid-winter moisture encountering the front ranges of the Himalayas can translate into a fairly significant amount of precipitation.

This incoming system still doesn't appear to be in the same category as the one we experienced exactly one week ago... but we need to be prepared for some rain and snow development around our general area, especially between Saturday afternoon and mid-day Sunday.  A blast of colder air is on the way as well, which will make it interesting to keep an eye on that rain/snow line...

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK above contains forecast details.

precipitation potential... (pm.10.jan.19)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 43.5ºF (6.4ºC)
High temp: 50.5ºF (10.3ºC)
Precipitation: none

We only had some dim and fleeting periods of sunshine today, with temperatures only struggling upward a few degrees from our early morning lows.

The upper-level pattern is disturbed and unstable at the moment, and will continue that way as we move into the weekend.  There's not really a major storm system moving through... at least not of the intensity that we experienced last weekend... but we do need to be aware of the chance of some scattered rain showers developing anytime now. Better chances of a few periods of more significant rain and snow exist between late Saturday and mid-day Sunday, as temperatures tumble several degrees.

Next week there are more question marks looming, as another notable disturbance or two cross Himalayan north India.  It's a fickle and changeable weather pattern we are stuck in, probably for the rest of the month, so we'll have to keep watching...

weekend concerns again... (pm.09.jan.19)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 42.4ºF (5.8ºC)
High temp: 52.1ºF (11.2ºC)
Precipitation: none

Today was one of the nicest and most pleasant days of this new year, with lots of sunshine, and temperatures rising a bit above normal for early January.

Our overall weather pattern is a rather active one, however, and there is another set of changes coming just around the corner.  Although the incoming system late this week doesn't look quite as promising in terms of precipitation amounts as the one we went through last weekend... we've got a pretty good chance of some significant periods of rain and snow starting as early as Thursday night, and continuing off and on until at least mid-day Sunday.

Right now it looks like the rain/snow line may be slightly higher up-mountain than it was this past Saturday night and Sunday... but we're still talking about another dip in temperatures.  Of course the factors and elements could shift and change as we get closer to the event... so check back for the latest updates during the coming few days...

a pattern worth watching... (pm.07.jan.19)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 35.8ºF (2.1ºC)
High temp: 47.9ºF (8.8ºC)
Precipitation: none

It's still cold... perhaps a bit colder than normal for early January, but after the cloudy, rainy and snowy weekend we had, the sunshine today felt fantastic.  The very last precipitation associated with our recently-departed storm system occurred early Sunday evening, so we've had more than 24 hours now of drying out, and some significant melting of the heavy snowfall just above town.

A weak ripple in the upper atmosphere will pass overhead tomorrow (Tuesday) into tomorrow night, with an increase in clouds expected, along with a small chance of some brief/passing sprinkles or very light showers.  No big deal.  But now our eyes turn to a complicated scenario taking shape as the weekend approaches.  A developing storm system could bring in some light precipitation by very late Thursday night, with at least a moderate chance of significant rain and snow across our area between Friday and mid-day Sunday.  Models are all over the place with their prognostications... but the moral of the story is that we have potentially active weather coming up for the second weekend in a row.

Check tabs above for other info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

wild weather ending... (pm.06.jan.19)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 34.3ºF (1.6ºC)
High temp: 42.0ºF (5.6ºC)
Melted precipitation: 1.02" (2.6cm) -- 2" to 2.5" of slushy snow accumulation
Storm total melted precip since Saturday: 1.37" (3.5cm)

It has been a wild and crazy weather day across our area, with completely different scenarios, depending on minor changes in elevation.  There were periods of snow just about everywhere in McLeod, but the only accumulations occurred in the very upper parts of town (mine included), where there were minor build-ups of slushy snow on trees, rooftops, terraces, and some spots on the ground.  Further up-mountain, accumulations of snow got much more impressive. A range of 5-8" fell in Dharamkot, around one foot in the vicinity of Galu Temple... with progressively heavier amounts up toward Triund, where I am hearing at least three feet of snow has piled up since yesterday morning.

But now, things are rapidly calming down as the upper-level low pressure system responsible for our winter storm is gradually shifting to our east.  Stabilization of the atmosphere is already happening, and should bring us a much quieter Monday, with a return of some welcome sunshine.  The week ahead will feature a mildly disturbed upper-level pattern that will keep us in and out of the clouds, and in and out of at least slight chances of some periods of light showers.  Temperatures will moderate a bit, but will probably average out near or slightly colder than normal for the season...

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK can be found on a tab above.

both wet and white... (pm.05.jan.19)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 37.8ºF (3.2ºC)
High temp: 49.2ºF (9.6ºC)
Precipitation: 0.27" (7mm)

Our weekend storm system got its act together a bit faster than expected, with some very light sprinkles/drizzle appearing around the area early this morning, and then light to moderate precipitation of various types in full swing by the early afternoon.  All of that precip total you see in the stats above was in the form of rain at my location just below the mountaineering center -- but there were snow flakes mixed in at times just uphill, and accumulating snow on the ground all the way down to Galu Temple and similar elevations.  Reports from Triund say that there's been nearly a foot of snow up there since this morning.

There's a break in the action in progress right now, and the latest models are showing some disagreement on the way forward.  Some of the data is pointing to redevelopment of rain/sleet and snow overnight into at least the first half of Sunday, as colder air continues to pour in, in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere.  But there is another model that is indicating that we've already had the vast majority of our precipitation from this system.  Satellite pics would suggest that there is more on the way during the coming 12-18 hours, as the upper-level low pressure circulation drops southeastward across Kashmir.  Whatever happens, we're in the midst of a major bout of cold weather which will hang around for at least another couple of days...

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (above) for the latest forecast details.

weekend action... (pm.04.jan.19)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 41.4ºF (5.2ºC)
High temp: 52.6ºF (11.4ºC)
Precipitation: none

An intensifying upper-level low pressure circulation is just now starting to move into northwestern Afghanistan, and will be the main driver of our weather scenario over the weekend.  A very cold pool of air is associated with this system, especially in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, and that's going to continue to destabilize our air mass, and bring a better and better chance of various forms of precipitation as we head into late Saturday and Sunday.

I've mentioned that this system isn't tapping into much of a supply of deep moisture, but with the upward lift and much colder air aloft moving across the mountains, we're going to see some significant areas of rain and snow develop.  The latest data would suggest that the most significant precipitation (perhaps in excess of a half-inch, or 1.2cm) in our immediate area would occur between Saturday evening and late Sunday night.  That translates into 5-6" of snow, IF temps cool down enough for that transition to occur.  Heavier amounts are likely in the higher elevations above.

There are always all kinds of changes that can/could occur as a storm system like this makes its approach... check back for updates during the next couple of days...

incoming system... (pm.03.jan.19)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 40.5ºF (4.7ºC)
High temp: 51.2ºF (10.7ºC)
Precipitation: none

Data is looking more and more interesting as the weekend approaches.  We've been talking about the potential for some significant winter precipitation in our area between Friday night and early Monday morning, and the latest models are locking in on that scenario.  

A deep upper-level low pressure system is now developing over central Asia, and will be moving east-southeastward, with the center of circulation forecast to be right over Himalayan north India by Sunday morning.  Although there is not a tremendous amount of moisture expected to be drawn into this system, the 'lift' along the mountain slopes as the upper-level low pressure and very cold air aloft move into our area will be quite dramatic.  Significant snowfall is almost a certainty above Dharamkot and Naddi, with a good chance of measurable/accumulating snowfall even as low as our elevation here in McLeod Ganj.  

After this system moves out on Monday, the overall weather pattern looks like it will remain rather active deeper into and through the month...  Follow details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK page, located on a link just above.

winter elements... (pm.02.jan.19)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 39.7ºF (4.3ºC) -- at 12:30pm
High temp: 51.6ºF (10.9ºC) -- at 1:00am
Precipitation: 0.02" (less than 1mm)

As advertised, we did experience a change in the weather today, with lots of thick cloudiness, much colder temps, and some off and on periods of very light rain that actually mixed with some snow grains/pellets for a little while during the early afternoon.  Precipitation was barely measurable here in McLeod, but I've heard reports of a few inches of snow up toward Triund.

The next couple of days (Thu and Fri) should be fairly quiet, with slightly moderating temperatures... but a stronger storm system will move into our area on Friday night, bringing a mixture of rain and snow that could last all the way into late Sunday or very early Monday morning.  Check back here for updates...

changes for the new year... (pm.01.jan.19)>

It's New Year's Day 2019, and with the near year is coming a change in the overall weather pattern.  Most of December was very quiet... apart from a 2-3 day period in the middle of the month when we had some light to moderate rain showers here in McLeod, and several inches of snow in the higher elevations above town.

But we're now facing a period of at least a couple of weeks when there will be a parade of upper-level disturbances moving across Himalayan north India, bringing frequent bouts of cloudiness, and at least two or three periods of potential rain, sleet, and/or snow showers.  Along with the better chances of precipitation will also come a drop in temperatures.  In fact, we'll see temps plunge later tonight into Wednesday, with even colder weather expected over this coming weekend.

Keep an eye on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK for forecast specs...