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Friday, May 19, 2017

pleasant for the season... (pm.19.may.17)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 64.0F (17.8C)
High temp: 80.6F (27.0C)
Rainfall: none

For the third evening in a row we've got some fine weather in progress -- there are scattered clouds around, with temperatures quite comfortable for this time of year.  It's been another day of sunshine and mainly mountain cloudiness, but I never heard any thunder, and by the look of it, the instability along the mountains was a bit less pronounced than it has been in several days.  We're still running just slightly cooler than normal, though it was the warmest day since Monday.

Well we've managed to dodge most of the scattered thundershower activity all along the western and central Himalayan ranges the last three days, but it's looking like our chances of measurable rainfall will be on the increase again by the mid-point of this weekend.  The next in a very long series of upper-level disturbances will be dropping in from the northwest by late tomorrow (Sat), and will slowly wobble its way across extreme northern India on Sunday and Monday.  This incoming system will contain another batch of cooler air aloft, with an even more impressive amount of moisture being pulled in from the south by Sunday.  So -- the risk of a few periods of showers and thunderstorms will be back above the 50-60% category by the latter half of the weekend, with rain chances decreasing to about 20-30% again by Tuesday.

With the increasing shower/thunder risk will also come another dip in temperatures for a few days.  BUT -- there are still some strong hints at a significant warming trend by the latter part of next week, which could take us back to seasonal highs during the last few days of May...