instability returning... (am.12.apr.14)>

The sun is fully in control early on this Saturday morning.  It's been a quiet night, with no rainfall, and a low temperature of 56.5F (13.6C) here at my location in the upper part of town.  Humidity is 35%.

We should be easing into a period of transition today into tonight, as our atmosphere becomes more and more unstable.  There's no sign of that here at the start of the day, but we should see some cloud development as the day wears on -- both some high clouds drifting in from the west, and some fairly heavy cumulus development over the mountains.  There's a possibility of some thundershower development along the Dhauladhars this afternoon, but better chances of scattered showers and thundershowers will enter the picture later tonight through Sunday night.  I think we'll have more dry hours than rainy ones during that time frame, but be aware of the risk.  This system is not a well-defined one, just a general area of instability brought about by a rather extreme disparity between temperatures in the lower vs. upper-levels of the atmosphere.

There could be a lingering shower or two somewhere in the area on Monday, with Tuesday looking good right now.  Then -- another period of instability is showing up on the charts for Wednesday into Thursday, which means more scattered showers and thundershowers roaming the landscape.  Temperatures, in general, should remain quite comfortable apart from temporary cool-downs during showers.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST specifics on the tab above.

reaching new heights... (pm.11.apr.14)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 57.0F (13.9C)
High temp: 70.5F (21.4C)
Rainfall: none

There has been a significant amount of thundershower development over the mountains this afternoon -- not only around the Dhauladhars, but southeastward into Uttarakhand and western Nepal as well.  We've got some thunder rumbling just to our north and northwest at sunset this evening, which we'll have to keep an eye on in case it happens to hold together a bit longer before dying out after dark.  Otherwise it's been another day of fantastic sunshine here in McLeod, with temperatures rising to their warmest levels of the season and 2014.

The disparity between a warming air mass at the surface, and the first approaching traces of colder air aloft has triggered the big cumulus clouds and thundershowers over the mountains this afternoon/evening, and that is a sign of things to come.  A wave of upper-level energy dropping in from the west-northwest this weekend will bring in even colder air in the higher levels of the atmosphere, as much warmer air stays entrenched in the lower levels.  Add to that a batch of moisture being drawn into the equation, and we've got the stage set for enough instability to bring about an increasing chance of scattered shower and thundershower action which will last into Sunday night and perhaps Monday as well.  The very best target range for a couple of rounds of significant rainfall will be between late Saturday night and Sunday evening, but it does look like the shower/thundershower activity will be very on-and-off, with even some sunshine occurring in between.

I'm a little hesitant to say it, but there are indications that we may have finally made it over the hump in terms of breaking into the kind of milder temperatures that are at least somewhat closer to normal for this time of year.  Of course we'll have some temporarily cooler temps during rain/thundershowers, but the overall nature of this April air mass is now getting more consistently comfortable.

CURRENT FORECAST info can be found on the tab above.

fantastic friday... (am.11.apr.14)>

An idyllic April morning is just getting started, with 100% clear skies, mild temperatures, and low humidity.  I'm recording a low temp of 57.0F (13.9C) which has occurred just in the past hour, and a humidity reading of 33%.  There has been no rainfall overnight.

I don't think it would be a mistake to say that we've had the best stretch of weather of this spring season the last few days -- with plenty of sunshine and temperatures which, though still on the cooler side of normal, have been quite comfortable.  We've got a dry and quiet west-northwesterly flow in the upper atmosphere to thank for this much-appreciated upturn in conditions, and it looks like it will remain relatively quiet for at least the next 24 hours or so.  In fact, if our recent luck with the sunshine can continue, it's very likely that temps will hit 70F (21.1C) today here at my spot in the upper part of town for the first time this season.

There is a new weather system on the way, however, which will bring cause for concern during the latter part of the weekend into early next week.  It will be in the form of a wave of upper-level energy which will move from western Kazakhstan into Kashmir between Saturday and Monday, bringing an increasing chance of some scattered shower and thundershower development across our area.  The best chance of a couple of periods of rainfall looks to be between Saturday night and Monday morning -- but I think it will indeed be of the scattered, short-lived variety, with some sunshine during that period as well.  At this point, it doesn't look like our mild temperatures will be radically affected.

Get the latest CURRENT FORECAST info on the tab above.

one of the best... (pm.10.apr.14)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 53.6F (12.0C)

High temp: 68.2F (20.1C)

Rainfall: none

Much like this morning at sunrise, there are just a few small patches of high cirrus clouds around the area this evening at sunset.  Today has turned out to be the sunniest day in about three weeks, with the high temperature only about one degree (F) below the warmest of 2014 thus far.  In conjunction with the sunshine and light winds, this has definitely been a contender for the most pleasant day overall since way back in the middle of October.

A very benign west-northwest flow in the upper-atmosphere, along with an air mass devoid of much in the way of latent moisture is responsible for the great weather of the past three days.  Today it even warmed up enough in the upper-levels to prevent the instability necessary to stir up more than just a few cumulus clouds over the mountains.  Tomorrow is looking good as well, though we have to be on guard for a bit more high cloudiness, and perhaps some returning mountain instability by late in the day.  If our sunshine doesn't get hijacked, I'm thinking it could hit 70F (21.1C) at my location in the upper part of town for the first time this year.  If you've been carefully following this blog, you know that event is way overdue, and something we've been waiting for for a long time.

There should be a turn to a more unstable and active pattern over the weekend, as a disorganized area of disturbances begins to drop in from the west-northwest.  The keys will be some pockets of colder air aloft and an increase in the moisture content of our air mass -- leading to the development of some widely scattered showers and thundershowers between late Saturday afternoon and Monday.  My impression is that this system isn't going to be much of a big deal for us, but it can't be ignored.  Stay tuned.

CURRENT FORECAST info is available on the tab above.