the waning days... (pm.13.sep.13)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 61.3F (16.3C)
High temp: 70.0F (21.1C)
Rainfall: 0.02" (less than 1mm)

There is a mix of patchy fog, a few clouds, and some muted sunshine across the area this evening.  We had some brief, sporadic showers during the mid- to late afternoon, but significant rainfall never got going, leaving us with one of the lowest daily totals of the entire monsoon season -- at least up til sunset.  It's been a pretty decent day, overall, with a good amount of sun, along with humidity which dropped to around 70% for a while.

We are moving along a very positive course of direction, and will continue to do so through the weekend into the middle of next week.  It's too early to say for sure, but there are certainly hints that we'll be taking some very dramatic steps toward the demise of Monsoon 2013 during the coming several days.  Check out MONSOON'S END? on the tab at the top of the page to see what meteorological factors have to come together for us to get official withdrawal of monsoon conditions --  it looks like things are starting to fall into place to set the wheels in motion.

Having said all that, each year we endure plenty of surprises here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars during the waning days of the monsoon.  That means it is wise to keep the umbrella handy, and to be prepared for sudden downpours (mainly during the PM hours) that can spoil the increasingly frequent sunny breaks and periods of lower humidity.  Stay tuned this weekend and early next week as we test the validity of these positive signs...

The CURRENT FORECAST and other weather info can be found on tabs above.

positive signs appearing... (am.13.sep.13)>

There is hardly a cloud in the sky at sunrise this morning -- so it's going to be bright and sunny as we start the day.  The temp is 61.7F (16.5C), with a humidity reading of 88% at the moment.  Last evening's shower and thundershower action diminished rapidly after sunset, so I've recorded no additional rainfall overnight -- the total from yesterday was 0.79" (2.0cm) at my location on Tushita Road below the Mountaineering Center.

For the first time in a long time, I feel myself getting excited when I look at the weather data.  Large-scale changes are getting underway across the western Himalayan region which are the first solid indications of a change in seasons.  A much drier flow from the west and northwest is projected to strengthen day-by-day between tomorrow (Sat) and the middle of next week.  This is going to flush out the vast majority of what remains of the deep and rich tropical moisture that has been lingering here for the past three months.  Average daily humidity readings will drop dramatically early next week -- likely as low as the 40-50% range -- and that should give us more hours of sunshine and less cloud/fog development.  There will still be a risk of a few showers/thundershowers popping up during the afternoon hours, but daily rainfall rates should be greatly diminished as well.

Although today is starting out sunny, there's still enough moisture around to cause clouds and some fog to rapidly develop during the mid-day hours -- with the potential for some significant downpours once again by the afternoon.  Still not quite the time to leave umbrellas at home...

More detailed information, including the CURRENT FORECAST can be found on tabs above.

evening deluge... (pm.12.sep.13)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 60.4F (15.8C) -- at 6:20pm during rain/hail (updated)
High temp: 69.8F (21.0C)
Rainfall: 0.79" (2.0cm) -- updated at 7:35pm

We've had sporadic moderate to heavy showers since about 4:30pm, with some thunder rumbling as well.  Otherwise it has been a rather uneventful day -- there were a few sprinkles and very brief light showers that began right around noon, but nothing has really been worth mentioning until just the past hour and a half or so.  Right now there are some really ugly looking clouds churning and boiling just to the southwest of McLeod, so it could remain active for a while this evening.  In fact, even as I write, we're now getting some hailstones mixed in with the rain.

Our whole weather scenario is now poised on the brink of some very significant changes over the course of the next three or four days.  The batch of tropical moisture that is currently providing us with these heavy downpours is going to be in major retreat mode this weekend, leading to some noticeable changes by early next week.  I'm pretty impressed with the computer models' projections with regard to the drying of our air mass -- from the surface all the way up into the higher levels of the atmosphere.  It will probably not put a definitive end to scattered shower or thundershower development during the afternoon hours, but I expect more hours of sunshine and MUCH lower average humidity levels as next week unfolds.

In the meantime, we are getting HAMMERED with heavy rain and hail near the main market in McLeod right now... so it's obvious that we still have to wait a few days for the better weather to materialize!

Get your CURRENT FORECAST and other detailed monsoon info on tabs above...

it's MELA time... (am.12.sep.13)>

It's partly to mostly cloudy at sunrise on this Thursday morning with a temperature of 63F (17.2C) and humidity at 90% -- almost identical to what was happening at this time yesterday morning.  I've recorded no rainfall overnight, leaving our 24 hour total at 0.93" (2.4cm), thanks to the heavy downpour yesterday afternoon.

Our local Mela is up and running on Taxi Stand/TCV Road which, according to tradition, marks the end of monsoon season.  Unfortunately, most years, it rains alot during the Mela, and doesn't really clear up until after it's all over.  This year could be different, as there are some strong signs that we may have a significant drying trend kicking in over the weekend.

In the near term, look out for the development of more rain and thunder by mid-day or the early afternoon hours -- and we stand a chance of picking up some heavy amounts again, as we did yesterday.  Thereafter, there will still be a good chance of some scattered showers or thundershowers in the area, but this moisture-laden air mass is going to be gradually modified and partially replaced by more of a post-monsoon type of air mass between Saturday and Tuesday of next week.  That will allow us to enjoy more hours of sun, and humidity dipping below 50% for the first time in months.  I highly doubt that we'll be saying goodbye to monsoon conditions for good, but it looks like we're going to be experiencing the biggest step in that direction so far.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details and other monsoon information on tabs above...