cool and unsettled... (pm.22.nov.12)>

Thursday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 50.5F (10.3C)
Afternoon high temp: 60.4F (15.8C)
Rainfall: none

Happy Thanksgiving to our American audience...  I hope you had/are having/will have (depending on your time zone!) a fantastic day.

We managed more sunshine today than yesterday, despite the occasional waves of high clouds drifting through, and that allowed my high temp on Tushita Road in the upper part of town to breach the 60F mark for perhaps the last time in a while.

Our overall weather pattern remains rather complex and active, as we roll with a series of upper-level disturbances which will continue to affect northern India between tonight and late Saturday.  Each of these little disturbances is pulling a fresh batch of cooler air southward in its wake, and it looks like we're going to get a blast of some significantly cooler temps as we head into the weekend.  Temperatures are likely to fall to their lowest of the season, and a couple of degrees below normal for late November.

I remain unimpressed with rain chances, but some moisture in the mid-levels of the atmosphere could be converted into a few random sprinkles or light showers as dynamic energy passes overhead on Friday and Saturday.  With colder air arriving, be aware of the risk of some light accumulations of snow above roughly 9,000-10,000ft, should any showers develop.  The most significant snowfall of the season (up in the mountains) happened way back during the early morning hours of October 24th -- so we're overdue to see another respectable dose of  "white" up there...

THURSDAY NIGHT:

 partly cloudy skies.  a couple of sprinkles or a light shower late?

low: 9C (48F)

FRIDAY:

a mix of sun and clouds.  risk of a random shower or two somewhere around the area.  cooler.

high: 14C (58F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:

partly to mostly cloudy.  still that risk of a stray shower or two.

low: 8C (47F)

SATURDAY:

partly cloudy -- mostly cloudy at times.  very chilly, with a chance of a few sprinkles or a light rain shower.

high: 14C (57F)

SUNDAY:

sunny to partly cloudy.  below normal temps!

morning low: 8C (46F)

daytime high: 14C (57F)

MONDAY:

sunshine and a few clouds.  still chilly.

morning low: 8C (47F)

daytime high: 14C (58F)

TUESDAY:

sunny to partly cloudy skies.

morning low: 9C (48F)

daytime high: 15C (59F)

atmospheric wiggles... (pm.21.nov.12)>

Wednesday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 52.3F (11.3C)
Afternoon high temp: 59.5F (15.3C)
Rainfall: none

There was very little movement on the thermometer today, thanks to a broken layer of high clouds which persisted across the area.  We did get some glimpses of sun from late morning into the early afternoon, but the high clouds were definitely the dominant feature of the day, keeping us below the 60F mark for only the third time this season.

We're now in the midst of a string of upper-level disturbances which will be affecting us off-and-on through Saturday.  The jet stream is active, and embedded with several of these disturbances which will bring waves of cloudiness and perhaps some light precipitation to Himalayan north India as they pass through.  All the data points to the risk of measurable rain/snow to remain in the highest elevations, but there is still potential for us to pick up a few randoms sprinkles or a stray shower sometime before Sunday arrives.  There simply isn't enough moist and juicy air available to give us a promise of much more than that.

The bigger news is the colder air which is expected to flow in over the next two or three days.  It's likely that we'll experience the coldest temps of our early winter season by the weekend -- in fact, we should wind up a bit below normal, which hasn't happened very often thus far this season.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

partly cloudy.  just a slight chance of a few sprinkles of rain.

low: 11C (51F)

THURSDAY:

a mix of sun and clouds, with an isolated light shower possible.  seasonably cool temps.

high: 16C (60F)

THURSDAY NIGHT:

partly cloudy and colder.  risk of a brief, light shower.

low: 9C (48F)

FRIDAY:

both clouds and some sun.  a few sprinkles or a stray shower possible.

high: 15C (59F)

SATURDAY:

a mix of clouds and some sun.  colder, with a chance of a couple of rain showers.

morning low: 8C (47F)

daytime high: 14C (57F)

SUNDAY:

sunny to partly cloudy -- coolest temps of the season?

morning low: 8C (46F)

daytime high: 14C (57F)

MONDAY:

cool... with sunshine and a few clouds.

morning low: 8C (47F)

daytime high: 14C (58F)

sun in jeopardy... (pm.20.nov.12)>

Tuesday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 50.9F (10.5C)
Afternoon high temp: 60.3F (15.7C)
Rainfall: none

It's been another beautiful day... with sunshine and a few high, thin cirrus clouds drifting through from time to time.  Temperatures continue to be in an acceptable range of normal for this time of year.

Our weather pattern is going to become more active and complicated over the coming 48 hours or so -- leading to an extended period of potentially unsettled conditions.  There will be several upper-level disturbances tracking from the Middle East into central Asia and the western Himalayan region between late Wednesday and early next week.  As I've mentioned many times, moisture is extremely limited (on par for late November), so I'll be very surprised if we can muster any significant rainfall out of any of this.  However, as colder air gradually filters in from the northwest, it won't take much moisture to squeeze out some snow showers over the mountains, although accumulations should be generally light.

We can't rule out a few sprinkles or a passing shower from occasionally cloudy skies late this week down here in McLeod and vicinity, but right now I wouldn't bet on anything measurable in the rain gauge.  I hope I'm wrong, since we really need some rain.

It looks like temperatures will drop a notch or two between tomorrow and Sunday, so if you haven't had a chance to put your heater to work yet, you might be thinking about it soon...

TUESDAY NIGHT:

generally clear early, but more high clouds moving in overnight.

low: 11C (51F)

WEDNESDAY:

sun and occasional mainly high clouds.  a sprinkle or two?

high: 16C (60F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

partly cloudy.  a few sprinkles or a light shower possible.

low: 10C (50F)

THURSDAY:

a mix of sun and clouds.  chance of a few sprinkles or a passing shower.

high: 15C (59F)

FRIDAY:

still a risk of a passing light shower.  otherwise partly cloudy and quite cool.

morning low: 9C (49F)

daytime high: 15C (59F)

SATURDAY:

chilly, with sun and occasional clouds.  a sprinkle?

morning low: 8C (47F)

daytime high: 14C (58F)

SUNDAY:

a mix of sun and some clouds.  coolest temps of the season?

morning low: 8C (47F)

daytime high: 14C (57F)

november calm... (pm.19.nov.12)>

Monday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 50.4F (10.2C)
Afternoon high temp: 61.2F (16.2C)
Rainfall: none

It has been a pretty fantastic Monday, all in all.  The sunshine was challenged only by a few cumulus clouds over the mountains this afternoon, and temperatures ended up being slightly warmer than expected.  We're still getting temps fairly close to normal for November, or even slightly above.

Although the upper-air pattern is looking rather active over the course of the coming week or ten days, there is very little moisture available throughout all layers of the atmosphere, so measurable rainfall is going to be hard to come by.  The next upper-level disturbance will begin arriving on Wednesday, and should provide us with at least moderate instability for most of the latter half of the week.  At this point, I expect any shower activity (both rain and snow) to remain generally in the higher elevations... but we'll have to watch as things develop.

This year we've experienced a very dry post-monsoon period thus far, with rainfall running well below normal for October and the first half of November.  Temperatures have been on the plus side of normal, which has provided us with a really pleasant autumn/early winter season.  Although cooler weather seems likely by the end of this week, the overall scenario should continue to be rather user-friendly...

MONDAY NIGHT:

clear skies.  seasonably cool.

low: 9C (49F)

TUESDAY:

perhaps a few high clouds moving in, otherwise mostly sunny.

high: 16C (61F)

TUESDAY NIGHT:

some high clouds possible, otherwise fair and cool.

low: 10C (50F)

WEDNESDAY:

sunny to partly cloudy.  an isolated PM sprinkle/light shower?

high: 16C (60F)

THURSDAY:

partly cloudy.  a few sprinkles or a light shower possible.

morning low: 10C (50F)

daytime high: 15C (59F)

FRIDAY:

a brief light shower??  otherwise partly cloudy and quite cool.

morning low: 9C (49F)

daytime high: 15C (59F)

SATURDAY:

a mix of sunshine and some clouds.  cooler...

morning low: 8C (47F)

daytime high: 14C (58F)