challenges... (pm.26.apr.12)>

It's 100% overcast this evening... with some some random sprinkles and light showers in the vicinity.  So far there has been no measurable rainfall today, but we'll see what happens during the next several hours.  Our healthy dose of sunshine was restricted to only about 3 hours... between 10am and 1pm... and that kept our high temp to just 72.5F (22.5C), which is the coolest I've recorded since last Saturday.

**Update @7:32pm... 0.20" (5mm) in the rain gauge from the thundershower that developed overhead around 6:45pm.**


**Update @9:22pm... 0.60" (1.5cm).  Still some light rain... and gusty winds.

I'll have to say I'm a little flabbergasted as I look through the computer model/forecast data for the next several days.  It is very unusual to see an upper-level pattern so active during the last few days of April.  There is a nearly continuous train of disturbances moving from west-to-east across the area, each with its own pool of cold air aloft, allowing for all kinds of instability.  This keeps the risk of mainly afternoon and night-time showers and thundershowers in the forecast right into early next week.  We'll still have some periods of sun to relish and enjoy, here and there, but the clouds will never be too far away.

A couple of these upper-level disturbances by early next week are looking incredibly intense... more like late winter systems!  Stay tuned as we keep both eyes on development and progress.  Temperatures are going to be entirely dependent on the amount of sunshine we can muster... but should balance out BELOW normal as we get into the weekend...

THURSDAY NIGHT:

partly to mostly cloudy.  a few showers and thundershowers in the area.

low: 15C (59F)

FRIDAY:

both clouds and sun.  a thundershower possible... mainly during the PM.

high: 24C (75F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:

partly cloudy with a thundershower or two possible.

low: 15C (59F)

SATURDAY:

a mix of clouds and some sun.  good chance of a round or two of showers and thunderstorms.

high: 23C (74F)

SUNDAY:

partly cloudy to mostly cloudy at times.  some thundershowers in the area.

morning low: 14C (57F)

daytime high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY:

partly cloudy, breezy and unseasonably cool.  risk of a thundershower.

morning low: 13C (56F)

daytime high: 22C (71F)

TUESDAY:

clouds and occasional sun.  breezy and cool for MAY, with a chance of more showers and thunderstorms.

morning low: 13C (55F)

daytime high: 21C (69F)

our crazy ride... (am.26.apr.12)>

We have a few patches of clouds hovering around early this morning, but it looks like the sun will have no trouble exerting its influence as it rises over the Dhauladars shortly.  Thundershowers continued to gain momentum last night -- especially between 8:00 and 11:00pm -- and I ended up with 0.41" (1cm) in my rain gauge here in the upper part of town.  The temperature cooled down to 56.1F (13.4C) in the midst of the rain last night, but has rebounded to 60.5F (15.8C) just prior to sunrise.

The moodiness and fickleness of this late April atmosphere continues on...  On one hand, we have been getting several hours of sunshine and "normal" temperatures during most of the morning into the early afternoon hours.  On the other hand, we've seen clouds and thundershowers erupt regularly, anytime after about 3:00pm, and lingering late into the evenings.  This is due to an upper-level pattern that remains quite active for this time of year.  The upper flow has been embedded with weak disturbances and associated pockets of colder air which has been igniting the disturbed/unstable conditions day after day.  Although there have been, and will continue to be varying degrees of instability on a given day, I don't expect this pattern to change significantly.  In fact, we could even see a STRONGER disturbance moving through over the weekend.

The good news is that our temperatures have been pleasantly warm for the vast majority of the daylight hours, and we should remain in that mode until a potential downturn by the latter half of the weekend -- just in time to end the month!

**Our resident trekking expert, Rijul Gill, has posted some valuable info on conditions up on the Dhauladar passes (in the comments section below, and also on our fb page).  Essential reading if you're heading way up high.**

THURSDAY:

a mix of sun and occasional clouds.  still warm, with a risk of a PM thundershower.

high: 25C (77F)

THURSDAY NIGHT:

a couple of showers and/or thundershowers in the area before midnight, otherwise partly cloudy.

low: 16C (60F)

FRIDAY:

partly cloudy and pleasantly warm.  a shower or thunderstorm possible in the PM.

high: 26C (78F)

SATURDAY:

both clouds and sun.  good chance of a couple of showers and/or thunderstorms.

morning low: 16C (60F)

daytime high: 24C (76F)

SUNDAY:

not as warm, with periods of clouds and sun.  a few thundershowers in the area.

morning low: 14C (58F)

daytime high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY:

partly cloudy, breezy and unseasonably cool.  chance of a thundershower.

morning low: 13C (56F)

daytime high: 22C (71F)

sun and shower... (pm.25.apr.12)>

There are a few sprinkles and scattered very light showers around the area this evening, under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  I even saw my first rainbow of the season a few minutes ago (just after 6pm).  So far, the showers have been barely enough to wet the streets... but I'll be keeping an eye on the rain gauge during the next few hours.  A fantastic several hours of sunshine from mid-morning into mid-afternoon allowed the high temp to reach 77.2F (25.1C) in the upper part of town.

** Update @ 8:42pm... Rainfall this evening (between 5:30 and 8:30pm) has amounted to 0.10" (3mm) here at the top of McLeod Ganj.**


**Update @ 9:40pm... Still some off and on showers.  Now 0.18" (5mm) in the rain gauge.  Unfortunately, satellite images haven't been coming in during the past 2 hours... so I can't see what's going on!

If you've been following along recently, I think the situation has been spelled out often enough.  Seasonably warm air at the surface -- a seemingly never-ending procession of weak disturbances and pools of colder air in the upper-levels of the atmosphere, and thus, reliably unstable conditions nearly everyday during the afternoons and evenings.  There is no indication that this pattern is going to relent... even as we get into the coming weekend.  Rainfall amounts are expected to be generally quite light, so the situation is really more of a nuisance than anything else.  On the bright side, our temperatures have been very close to normal for the latter part of April, and that should be the case for another couple of days or so.

Then... there are some seriously bizarre things happening on the extended computer model weather charts.  A very intense upper-level disturbance for this time of year (looks more like a mid-March system) is forecast to drop in from the northwest on late Saturday through Monday.  Although moisture will probably be lacking, it should bring us an even better chance of thundershowers, along with a drop in temperatures...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

a couple of showers and possibly a thundershower this evening.  otherwise partly cloudy.

low: 16C (61F)

THURSDAY:

a mix of sunshine and occasional clouds.  an isolated late PM thundershower?

high: 26C (78F)

THURSDAY NIGHT:

risk of an evening thundershower, otherwise clear to partly cloudy.

low: 17C (63F)

FRIDAY:

partly cloudy and warm.  chance of a thunderstorm developing in the afternoon.

high: 26C (78F)

SATURDAY:

both sun and clouds.  better chance of a few showers and thunderstorms around.

morning low: 17C (62F)

daytime high: 24C (76F)

SUNDAY:

partly cloudy with a good chance of a couple of thundershowers.  not as warm.

morning low: 15C (59F)

daytime high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY:

both clouds and some sun.  breezy and unseasonably cool, with a risk of a passing thundershower.

morning low: 14C (57F)

daytime high: 22C (71F)

moody skies... (am.25.apr.12)

The sun is trying to peek through clouds just after sunrise this morning.  I have 0.09" (2mm) in the rain gauge from last evening's thundershowers -- not much, considering the fact that we had thunder rumbling around the area almost continuously from 3pm until 10pm.  The overnight low temp here on Tushita Road just below the Mountaineering Center has been 60.4F (15.8C).

We're continuing to see sudden and dramatic swings in weather conditions... from full sunshine and warm temps to clouds, thunder and a cool breeze... in a matter of just a couple of hours.  This springtime variability is due to a continuing parade of weak upper-level disturbances and associated pools of colder air aloft, riding over the top of seasonably warm air in the lowest layers of the atmosphere.  Classic instability, as you've heard me talk about many times before if you're a regular follower of the blog.

Although we'll continue to see nice stretches of sunny and warm weather... this risk of random thundershower development will continue to plague us during the afternoon and evening hours.  Rainfall amounts should remain very light for the most part, but just be aware of the potential for rapid changes, and be prepared if you plan to be away from shelter.

Temperatures will continue to average very close to normal for the remainder of the week, but there are indications of a cool-down over the weekend... along with a chance of more widespread, significant rainfall.  Still too early to tell how it will pan out, but stay tuned for updated info...

WEDNESDAY:

a mix of clouds and sunshine.  risk of a thundershower or two in the area during the PM hours.

high: 25C (77F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

chance of a thundershower before midnight.  otherwise partly cloudy.

low: 17C (62F)

THURSDAY:

warm, with sunshine and occasional clouds.  an isolated PM thundershower?

high: 26C (79F)

FRIDAY:

partly cloudy with a couple of showers or thunderstorms possible late in the day.

morning low: 18C (64F)

daytime high: 26C (78F)

SATURDAY:

both clouds and sun.  good chance of a period of thunderstorms.

morning low: 16C (61F)

daytime high: 24C (76F)

SUNDAY:

clouds and some periods of sun.  good chance of some showers and thunderstorms in the area.

morning low: 15C (59F)

daytime high: 23C (73F)