warming trend on the way... (pm.04.may.17)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 54.7F (12.6C)
High temp: 72.6F (22.6C)
Rainfall: 0.17" (4mm)

The temperature just before sunset is very close to the high for the day, with just a few scattered clouds in the area.  It has been a truly 'variably cloudy' day, with all kinds of fluctuations between clouds and sunshine during the daylight hours.  All of the measurable rainfall you see in the stats at the top of this post occurred during the early morning hours, with at least three different episodes of light rain showers between about 1:30 and 6:30am.  We did have a few sprinkles late this afternoon, but that didn't add to the daily total.

Well this departing upper-level disturbance has played out pretty much according to expectations, with only light amounts of rain here in our immediate area, and heavier precipitation amounts in the higher elevations north and northeast of us.  It has served to cool us off a few degrees the last couple of days... putting us in the range of roughly 5-7ºF/3-4ºC cooler than normal for the early days of May.  But this taste of cooler weather is not going to last, it appears.

The upper-level pattern is already on the move, again, with warmer air flowing in aloft, as a big, broad high pressure ridge starts to build across most of south Asia during the coming several days.  This looks like it's going to be what we call a 'dirty ridge' of high pressure -- due to the fact that there will be some weak circulations embedded in the very light flow, along with some pockets of moisture.  That means that we're probably going to be contending with occasional periods of cloudiness, and even a barely mentionable risk of mainly PM thundershowers -- even as a fairly aggressive warming trend kicks in.

My last 80ºF+ (27ºC) temp was way back on the 21st of April, but it looks like we'll be heading above that mark sometime over the coming weekend.

stats updates... (am.04.may.17)>

*Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 58.5F (14.7C)
High temp: 73.7F (23.2C)
Rainfall: 0.09" (2mm)

*Thursday's stats (as of 6:20am):

Low temp: 54.7F (12.6C)
Rainfall: 0.17" (4mm)

the latest disturbance... (pm.02.may.17)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 61.0F (16.1C)
High temp: 77.3F (25.2C)
Rainfall: none

It is partly cloudy as the sun sets this evening, after a day of alternating sunshine, mainly high clouds, and dim sun filtered through those high clouds.  Were it not for the cloudiness, our high temp would have probably hit 80ºF/27ºC, which is a bit above the average maximum for the first few days of May.

It's getting very repetitive to talk about the disturbed upper-level flow we've been dealing with for the last eight or nine days... but that really does continue to be the weather theme lately.  The next disturbance of note is organizing in the vicinity of Uzbekistan at the moment, and will swing across Himalayan north India tomorrow (Wed) into early Thursday.  Current data indicates that the best chance of significant precipitation will be in the higher elevations to our north and northeast between late tonight and Thursday afternoon... but it's looking like we could get at least something measurable in the rain gauge during that time period as well.  I'm not extremely pumped up about our prospects, but we'll have to keep an eye on things during the coming 36 to 48 hours or so.

Thereafter... signs of a building ridge of summertime high pressure are looking better and better over the weekend into at least the middle of next week.  There's likely going to be some moisture around, which means the risk of isolated thundershowers is not entirely out of the question, but the bigger news is an aggressive rise in temperatures which could take us back into the range we were experiencing a couple of weeks ago during our early-season April heat wave...

may arrives politely... (pm.01.may.17)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 58.1F (14.5C)
High temp: 76.7F (24.8C)
Rainfall: none

This inaugural day of May 2017 has been a very fine one.  We had full sunshine until the late morning, but then there was a fairly impressive amount of mountain cloud development during the afternoon -- but nothing came of it -- and we're back to mostly sunny skies during this half hour or so before sunset.  The normal/average high temp for the first day of May is 78ºF/26ºC, and you can see from the stats at the top of this post that we were just a little below that.

We're still looking at an absence of major storm systems across the western Himalayan region, which is fairly normal for this time of year.  However, just as has been the case the last ten days or so, we're locked into an upper-level pattern that is wiggly and wobbly, containing several fast-moving upper-level disturbances of varying intensity.  This pattern will keep us fluctuating between sunshine and clouds over the course of this week, with the risk of a period of thundershowers or two not out of the question.  Right now the best chance of some rain appears to be on Wednesday, but frankly, there is at least a 10-15% chance of a shower on any given day.  Not a big deal, but keep that in mind.

Temperatures will also wobble up and down between now and Thursday, but it looks like we still have a fairly aggressive warming trend on the way over the weekend into about the middle of next week.