battle lines... (pm.15.sep.13)>

*Update @ 9:05pm... Humidity is down to 55% -- the lowest since this monsoon season began, more than three months ago.  A couple of showers and maybe some thunder could occur yet tonight, but a brand new air mass is decisively advancing.  Temp steady near 58F (14.5C).

*Update @ 7:40pm... Wow.  That was wicked.  Those thunderstorms have finally pushed well off to our southeast, leaving us with a few sprinkles, a north breeze and humidity which has dropped back down to 60%.  Our first real taste of continental Asian air in a long long long time.  It's 58F (14.4C) right now, but temps have been rising during the past hour, since most of the rain/hail has finally moved out. 

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Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 54.9F (13.3C) -- at 6:15pm
High temp: 70.5F (21.4C)
Rain/melted hail: 0.96" (2.4cm) -- updated @ 7:30pm

We're in the midst of a massive battle for territory this evening, and have been since about the middle of the afternoon.  Currently, north-northwest winds are gusting strongly as a large area of thunderstorms begins to collapse overhead.  There are still some thunder, lightning and moderate rain showers going on, but right now the main event seems to be the wind.  Between roughly 3:00 and 5:00pm, we had a couple of periods of heavy hail and some moderate/heavy rain -- and it seems like the thunder has been rolling almost continuously since about 2:30pm.

Ironically, humidity fell to 58% late this morning, which is the lowest I've recorded during this transition out of the monsoon season.  There were a few hours of fantastic sunshine until about 11:00am, when the latent moisture in the air began to rise, condense, and eventually fuel thunderstorm development.

A widespread area of showers and thunderstorms started developing late this morning over west-central Kashmir.  As it moved toward the southeast, other thundershower development was initiated here along the Dhauladhars.  By late afternoon we had a huge mass of rain/hail/thunder right along the front slopes of the Himalayas from southwest Kashmir into western Himachal Pradesh.  This development has been occurring right on the battle line between much drier air attempting to push in from central Asia, and lingering tropical moisture which is slowly pulling out of north India.

The dramatic push of that much drier air from central Asia (and whether or not it is going to permanently displace what remains of monsoon humidity and moisture) will be our main event during the coming week.  Stay tuned as we watch the seasons turn...

Monsoon info and CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on tabs above.

by increments... (am.15.sep.13)>

It looks like we're in line for another beautiful morning, although there are some scattered clouds along the mountains as the sun rises.  I have an early morning temp of 61.5F (16.4C), and humidity is 78%.  If I'm not mistaken, that's the lowest humidity reading I've seen at this time of the morning in the past couple of months.

Yesterday afternoon's round of rain, hail and thunder was quite intense for an hour or so, reminding us that monsoon conditions here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars do not depart without a fight.  Progressively drier air throughout all layers of the atmosphere is arriving, but lingering pockets of moisture, especially in the low levels, gets stirred up by strong morning sunshine -- then lifted and condensed into thundershowers by the early afternoon.  That's been the dynamic for the past several days, and may continue for another few days, until a drier post-monsoon air mass is able to establish itself firmly.  Enjoy the much longer periods of sunshine and the much lower average humidity -- just keep the rain gear within reach so you don't get caught unprepared.

New computer model data arrives every 12 hours, and it is interesting to watch the consistent trend toward drier and drier air which is projected during this coming week.  On paper (or on the computer screen) it looks quite dramatic, but we'll just have to wait and see what kind of micro-climate curve balls the mountains throw at us as this transition occurs...

Check out more specific monsoon info, along with the CURRENT FORECAST on tabs above.

sun/rain/sun... (pm.14.sep.13)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 56.7F (13.7C) -- 3:15pm during rain/hail
High temp: 71.6F (22.0C)
Rainfall: 1.02" (2.6cm)

Our Saturday had a beautiful start, and now a gorgeous end -- but in between we got nailed with one heck of a downpour of rain, accompanied by hail, thunder and some gusty northwest winds.  The first sprinkles showed up just before 1pm, but the heaviest of the rain occurred between about 2:30 and 3:45pm.  My temperature in the upper part of town dropped to its lowest of the season as the hail was falling.  We had lots of sunshine this morning before the clouds erupted though, with humidity dipping briefly below 60%.

Well, this afternoon the mountain thunder machine showed what it can do during this phase of monsoon withdrawal.  Although the genuine tropical moisture associated with monsoon conditions is rapidly retreating to the southeast, what's left of it here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars still can get lifted and condensed after a morning of strong sunshine -- providing us with some excitement during the afternoon hours.  The challenge during the next few days will be trying to keep on top of that PM thundershower potential.

All available data continues to show a dramatic drying of the atmosphere between Monday and Wednesday, and computer models are actually showing ZERO shower development across Himalayan north India by Tuesday.  This can't really be taken at face value yet... we'll just have to watch day-by-day as the average humidity continues to drop.  Despite the lingering downpours, it's great to see the hours of nicer weather steadily increasing...

Get the CURRENT FORECAST details and other monsoon info on the tabs at the top of the page.

cautious optimism... (am.14.sep.13)>

A gorgeous Saturday morning is dawning.  We have mostly clear skies, a mild temperature of 64F (17.8C), and humidity near 80% to start the day.  There has been no rainfall overnight, and only 0.02" (less than 1mm) during the past 24 hours.

I'm trying hard to throttle my enthusiasm about our unfolding weather scenario during the coming several days, because it is looking like dramatic changes are in the works.  Gradually drier air is already filtering its way into Himalayan north India from the west and northwest, with a much stronger push of drier and more stable air being advertised by computer models between Monday and Wednesday of next week.  The reason I'm trying to keep my enthusiasm under control is due to the fact that there are often lingering pockets of moisture which remain trapped along the front ranges of the mountains during the last week or ten days of monsoon season -- undetected by the computer models.  This can lead to some pretty intense downpours during the afternoon/evening hours, despite the major changes in the large-scale weather pattern.

Overall, we should see increasing amounts of sunshine and lower average daily humidity (down below 50% by next week) over the course of the next several days.  However, just keep in mind that an eruption of showers and thundershowers is at least a 50-50 bet, especially during the PM hours, and be prepared to deal with it if you're out and about.  Still -- it's nice to know we are now truly nearing the end.

Monsoon info and your CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on tabs above.