easter weekend... (pm.06.apr.12)>

Our skies are partly cloudy just before sunset this evening.  We've had no rainfall today, but there were a few rumbles of thunder over the mountains around and just after 4:00pm.  Today was not quite as warm as the last several, but still, we made it to 76.1F (24.5C)... that's still a bit above normal for early April.

Current satellite photos show clusters of thunderstorms along the mountains, all the way from northern Pakistan and Kashmir, southeastward into Nepal.  This activity is evidence that the atmosphere over the central and western Himalaya remains unstable, despite the lack of an organized storm system.  I'm still expecting more of a stabilizing trend both tomorrow and especially on Easter Sunday... but a random shower or thunderstorm (mainly in the PM) can't be totally ruled out.

There IS a more organized storm system on the horizon for early next week... which could bring us a better chance of a couple of thunderstorms during the Monday through Wednesday period.  Temperatures during the next several days should remain very close to the warmest of the season.  I'm still waiting for the first temp above 80F (26.7C) here at the top of McLeod Ganj... and we should be very close.

FRIDAY NIGHT:

slight chance of a thundershower... otherwise partly cloudy.

low: 16C (61F)

SATURDAY:

sunny to partly cloudy.  risk of a passing thundershower in the PM.

high: 25C (77F)

SATURDAY NIGHT:

generally fair skies.  milder.

low: 17C (63F)

EASTER SUNDAY:

a mix of sunshine and some clouds.  plenty warm.

high: 26C (79F)

MONDAY:

partly cloudy and warm.  increasing chance of a round of thunderstorms.

morning low: 18C (65F)

daytime high: 26C (79F)

TUESDAY:

both clouds and sun... with a good chance of some showers and thunderstorms in the area.

morning low: 17C (63F)

daytime high: 25C (77F)

WEDNESDAY:

still a mix of clouds and sun.  a shower or thunderstorm possible.

morning low: 16C (61F)

daytime high: 24C (76F)

more PM thunder?... (am.06.apr.12)>

We're back to clear skies just before sunrise on this Friday morning.  I'm recording the coolest overnight low temp since Thursday, 29 March... 59.5F (15.3C)... which is actually pretty close to normal for this time of year. There has been no additional rainfall since yesterday, so our 24 hour total remains at 0.48" (1.2cm).

That half-inch of rain was also the first measurable precipitation since 13 March... so despite the fact that it came along with a lot of thunder and lightning (and wind), it was a very welcome shot of moisture.  Can we get more today?  That is the burning question.  The instability that generated that round of thunderstorms yesterday afternoon remains in place today... but it is likely we won't warm up quite so much here at the surface, which may diminish our chances of such a dramatic display.  Still... we'll have to keep an eye out.

Over the weekend, slightly warmer air will return to the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere, which should also contribute to a bit of stabilization.  However, there is a fairly strong-looking upper-air disturbance and associated pool of cold air aloft on its way for Monday into Tuesday.  That will increase our chance of some shower and thunderstorm activity once again.  Temperatures are expected to remain on the warm side of normal right into early next week...

FRIDAY:

sunny this morning.  becoming partly cloudy this afternoon with a risk of a thunderstorm.

high: 24C (75F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:

an evening shower or thunderstorm?  then clearing.

low: 17C (62F)

SATURDAY:

sunshine and a few clouds.  slight chance of a PM thunderstorm.

high: 25C (77F)

SUNDAY:

sun and occasional clouds.  unseasonably warm.

morning low: 18C (64F)

daytime high: 26C (78F)

MONDAY:

partly cloudy and warm with chance of a mainly afternoon thunderstorm.

morning low: 18C (65F)

daytime high: 26C (79F)

TUESDAY:

partly cloudy skies.  good chance of a round of showers and thunderstorms.

morning low: 18C (64F)

daytime high: 26C (78F)

instability pops... (pm.05.apr.12)>

Recent stats:

Tuesday's low/high: 65.0F (18.3C) / 78.4F (25.8C)
Wednesday's low/high: 64.8F (18.2C) / 79.8F (26.6C) - warmest of the year
Thursday's low/high: 61.3F (16.3C) / 78.4F (25.8C)

We've had thunder at some point on every day of this past week, but this afternoon (Thurs) was the first time measurable precipitation occurred.  I recorded 0.48" (1.2cm) of rain roughly between 3:30 and 4:30pm.  That's the most rainfall here since the 13th of March... more than 3 weeks ago.  There were also a few hailstones mixed in with the rain.

Several days back we were talking about how the atmosphere was becoming more and more unstable... due to very warm air remaining entrenched at the surface, while colder air was gradually filtering in aloft.  Despite the fact that there has been no organized storm system, the instability has been building all week long, and today, things finally "popped".  The thunder and lightning were fierce... but it was really nice to get a decent rain... things are looking greener already, and the air is fresh and clean for the first time in a while.

Temporarily cooler air has been brought from high in the atmosphere down to the surface, but it won't last long.  Warm temperatures will return quickly... and remain with us.  There should still be enough instability to generate a few showers and thunderstorms along the mountains during the next several days.  Sunday could be a more stable day, with a lesser chance of flirting with showers and/or thunder.  No really big deal... just be aware of weather conditions (as always) if you are venturing to higher elevations.

THURSDAY NIGHT:

still a chance of a thundershower early... then clearing.

low: 16C (61F)

FRIDAY:

generally sunny in the morning... partly cloudy PM.  a thundershower is possible.

high: 24C (76F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:

evening thundershower risk, otherwise partly cloudy.

low: 17C (62F)

SATURDAY:

a mix of sun and some clouds.  a PM thundershower possible.

high: 24C (76F)

SUNDAY:

sunny to partly cloudy.  warm.

morning low: 18C (64F)

daytime high: 26C (78F)

MONDAY:

partly cloudy... with an increasing chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

morning low: 18C (65F)

daytime high: 26C (79F)

TUESDAY:

partly cloudy with a good chance of a period of thunderstorms.

morning low: 18C (64F)

daytime high: 26C (78F)