simply wet... (pm.02.mar.11)>

it's cloudy.  it's raining.  it's cold.  i guess that about covers it!!

right now it is only 43F (6.1C), after a high temp of 48.7F (9.3C) during the late morning.  at this moment, i have a fresh 0.40" (1.0cm) in my rain gauge... since this morning's report.  that brings our total rainfall from this particular storm system up to 0.49" (1.3cm).

more and more, this is looking like a significant rain situation for us here in mcleod ganj.  computer model data combined with a look at the satellite imagery today shows that we have a very potent upper-level disturbance which is continuing to gain momentum... and will exert its influence over us until the first part of the weekend.  the good news is that temperatures in the lower part of the atmosphere will actually be warming up during the next few days, and that's probably going to keep the snow line well above us.  BUT... extended periods of rain are likely between now and early saturday, along with a chance of thunderstorms, and some strong winds at times.

there could be some lulls, or breaks in the action, during the next 48-60 hours or so... but i think it would be best not to be tempted to venture into the mountains, as rain, thunderstorms and higher elevation snows (generally above 2200m/7200ft) are likely to redevelop with little advance notice...

still hanging on to hope that things will improve dramatically this weekend!

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: periods of rain likely.  windy at times, with mostly cloudy skies.  thunder is possible as well.
low: 5C (41F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy skies... periods of rain, thunderstorms and gusty winds likely.
high: 9C (48F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: more rain, wind and possible thunderstorms...
low: 6C (43F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy.  occasional rain and thunderstorms.
high: 9C (49F)

SATURDAY: a few showers in the morning?  otherwise a bit of clearing, along with milder temps.
high: 12C (53F)

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds and sun.  nice!
high: 13C (55F)

MONDAY:  mostly sunny skies... more comfortable temps.
high: 15C (59F)

increasingly disturbed... (am.02.mar.11)>

there are a few sprinkles of rain out there early this morning under mostly cloudy skies.  the temp has been pretty steady all night around 45F (7.2C).  so far we've just picked up 0.09" (2.2mm) of rain since our first showers began on monday night.

i had been hoping we might get at least a couple of glimpses of sunshine this morning, but from what i am seeing on the satellite pics, that looks doubtful.  the center of this broad area of low pressure aloft is currently located over afghanistan... and small disturbances continue to spin eastward out of it... across northern india.  so far, these disturbances have only been able to muster up lots of clouds, random light showers, and mountain snow... but during the next 24-48 hours, i think we'll start to see some more significant rainfall, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two.  data this morning continues to indicate that the best potential for moderate to heavy rainfall and stormy weather will occur from late today through friday... but again... the computer model data can be fickle, so we'll have to keep a close eye on it.  be aware that the mountains ( 2200m/7200ft and above) are going to get hammered with more heavy snow between now and the weekend.

saturday (first day of tibetan losar) is a toss-up at this point... we'll be on the tail end of this system, so some showers are still in the forecast... but i do think things will be improving as the day goes on.  sunday is looking like it could actually be a pretty nice day!

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy skies with a good chance of scattered showers.  a thundershower is possible as well.
high: 9C (49F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: cloudy with a good chance of some showers and thundershowers.
low: 6C (43F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy... periods of rain and thunderstorms are likely.
high: 9C (49F)

FRIDAY: more periods of rain and possible thunderstorms.  otherwise mostly cloudy with gusty winds at times.
high: 9C (49F)

SATURDAY: a few rain showers around... mainly in the morning.  otherwise partly to mostly cloudy and a bit milder.
high: 11C (52F)

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds and sunshine... nicer!
high: 13C (55F)

more rain ahead... (pm.01.mar.11)>

there's a little streak of brightness in the western sky, otherwise it's cloudy early this evening, with a few random sprinkles and light showers in the area during the past hour or so.  today's high temp was only 46.9F (8.3C)... the thermometer barely budged all day.  although there have been a few very light showers... it hasn't been enough to measure since the morning report.

other than a few fleeting glimpses of sunshine, it looks like we're going to be pretty socked in for the next three days... at least.  a series of upper-level disturbances will continue to track across northern india, bringing a lot of cloudiness along with an ever-increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.  i still think the worst of this is going to happen from late tomorrow (wed) into about mid-day friday... when we could see some significant rainfall, along with thunder and gusty winds.  there's still some inconsistency between the various computer models... but i am hopeful that things will improve significantly by saturday, for the start of tibetan losar.

at this point, i expect the snow line to remain above 2100m (6900ft) for the duration of this event... with very heavy snowfall on the way once again for the higher mountains and passes of himachal.

TUESDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies... a few off and on showers possible.
low: 7C (44F)

WEDNESDAY: perhaps a little morning sun, otherwise mostly cloudy with an increasing chance of showers and thundershowers.
high: 10C (50F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of rain and thunderstorms likely.  gusty winds at times...
high: 9C (49F)

FRIDAY: cloudy and cool with more rain and thunderstorms.
high: 9C (49F)

SATURDAY: best chance of some showers in the morning... otherwise becoming partly cloudy and milder.
high: 11C (52F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly sunny and much nicer!
high: 13C (55F)

march dreariness... (am.01.mar.11)>

skies are cloudy early this morning, with a temp of 45F (7.2C).  scattered light rain showers overnight have amounted to just 2mm (.08") in the rain gauge.

well here we go again... it looks like we will be dealing with generally dreary late-winter weather for the next several days... thanks to a very active jet stream pattern.  there will be numerous ripples and wiggles in this fast upper-level flow between now and the weekend, while available surface moisture gradually increases.  at this point, i'm not expecting any super long-lasting rains, and we may even get a couple of sunny breaks here and there, but occasional waves of showers and thundershowers are quite likely.  from what i am seeing this morning, late wednesday into mid-day friday may be the window of opportunity for the highest probability of significant rainfall.

snow-bound residents from kashmir into upper reaches of himachal pradesh will be getting dumped on again, with very heavy snow already a reality in some spots.  if there is any good news, it's this: there is evidence that temperatures may actually moderate just a bit by the weekend...

TUESDAY: cloudy this morning... maybe some glimpses of sun this afternoon.  scattered sprinkles and light showers.
high: 10C (50F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of a few (mainly light) showers.
low: 7C (45F)

WEDNESDAY: mostly cloudy skies.  a good chance of some showers and thundershowers.
high: 10C (50F)

THURSDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of rain and thunderstorms likely.
high: 10C (50F)

FRIDAY: cloudy skies with more periods of rain and thunderstorms.
high: 11C (51F)

SATURDAY: a bit of sunshine between clouds.  good chance of a few showers, mainly in the AM.
high: 12C (53F)