a very interesting weather scenario shaping up... our long-awaited monsoon may be arriving in the very near future. early this morning it's 18c/65f, with a few clouds and some patches of fog trying to climb up from the valleys. very deep, rich tropical moisture is now quickly surging northwestward across northern india, and computer model guidance is pointing to a 3-4 day period of nearly saturated conditions (80-100% humidity), along with very heavy rain and thunderstorm action. this moisture may retreat a bit by wednesday and thursday, but in the meantime, it seems very likely that we'll see genuine monsoon conditions... with several inches of rainfall almost guaranteed. periods of sunshine will be very short-lived, and temperatures will settle into the 18-23C (65-73F) range, with very little fluctuation.
HAPPY 4TH OF JULY TO ALL THE AMERICANS...
SUNDAY: becoming mostly cloudy and foggy with a good chance of a few periods of thundershowers.
high: 23C (73F)
SUNDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of showers or a thunderstorm.
low: 19C (66F)
MONDAY: mostly cloudy skies with periods of fog. rain likely, with a thunderstorm or two also possible.
high: 22C (72F)
TUESDAY: clouds and fog, with periods of rain likely.
high: 22C (71F)
WEDNESDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a good chance of more showers.
high: 23C (73F)
THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers/thundershowers possible.
high: 23C (74F)
Sunday, July 4, 2010
Saturday, July 3, 2010
saturday evening>
we had sunshine early this morning, and are now enjoying sunshine during the early evening. BUT, in between, we received quite the dumping of tropical rains. rain and thundershowers between 1045am and about 330pm left us with a total of 1.40" (3.5cm)...which is the most rainfall we've had at one time since the early morning of 25 june. but despite all that rain today, we STILL don't have official monsoon conditions. we're still lacking the deep moisture that gives us a totally saturated airmass and produces the tell-tale thick fog. we are expecting a move in that direction tomorrow into the middle of next week, however. all computer guidance AND our friends at the IMD are forecasting a major surge of moisture into northern india... and it's a good bet that we'll receive heavy amounts of rain, near 100% humidity levels and some fogged-in conditions during the next few days. it's coming eventually, folks... it really is...!
SATURDAY NIGHT: clear to partly cloudy skies, with only a slight chance of an overnight thundershower.
low: 19C (66F)
SUNDAY: some sunshine early, then increasing clouds with areas of fog developing. good chance of a few showers and thundershowers.
high: 23C (73F)
MONDAY: mostly cloudy with some periods of fog. rain likely, with a chance of a thunderstorm.
high: 22C (72F)
TUESDAY: foggy and cloudy with a good chance of off and on rainshowers.
high: 22C (71F)
WEDNESDAY: a bit of sunshine returns, but still a good amount of clouds and some fog as well. good chance of more showers.
high: 22C (72F)
THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 24C (75F)
SATURDAY NIGHT: clear to partly cloudy skies, with only a slight chance of an overnight thundershower.
low: 19C (66F)
SUNDAY: some sunshine early, then increasing clouds with areas of fog developing. good chance of a few showers and thundershowers.
high: 23C (73F)
MONDAY: mostly cloudy with some periods of fog. rain likely, with a chance of a thunderstorm.
high: 22C (72F)
TUESDAY: foggy and cloudy with a good chance of off and on rainshowers.
high: 22C (71F)
WEDNESDAY: a bit of sunshine returns, but still a good amount of clouds and some fog as well. good chance of more showers.
high: 22C (72F)
THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 24C (75F)
saturday morning>
july mornings like this are rare... mostly clear skies, low humidity, and a temperature of 18c/65f. enjoy the sunshine this morning, because a turn to cloudy and rainy weather is expected, starting this afternoon. tropical moisture lurking to our southeast is going to be drawn northwestward during the next 2-3 days, and in conjunction with an upper-air disturbance sliding in from the northwest, will give us a good chance of some moderate to heavy rainfall. fog is likely to develop as well... so it may look and feel very monsoonish, especially from sunday into tuesday. however, it appears that more dry air will work into the area by wednesday, and that will further delay our monsoon conditions from becoming firmly entrenched. although humidity will be on the rise during the next several days, daytime temperatures will continue their downward trend...
*UPDATE 10:30AM** clouds have developed very quickly across the area by mid-morning, with very low bases... so foggy conditions are setting in. have adjusted today's forecast to account for more clouds, and cooler temps.
SATURDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy. rather cool, with a few showers/thundershowers.
high: 23C (74F)
SATURDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies, with a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms.
low: 19C (67F)
SUNDAY: mostly cloudy and becoming foggy. good chance of rain, along with some thunder.
high: 23C (73F)
MONDAY: cloudy and foggy with periods of rain likely. chance of a thunderstorm as well.
high: 22C (72F)
TUESDAY: mostly cloudy with areas of fog. still a good chance of rain.
high: 22C (72F)
WEDNESDAY: mix of clouds and sun. one or two showers possible.
high: 23C (74F)
*UPDATE 10:30AM** clouds have developed very quickly across the area by mid-morning, with very low bases... so foggy conditions are setting in. have adjusted today's forecast to account for more clouds, and cooler temps.
SATURDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy. rather cool, with a few showers/thundershowers.
high: 23C (74F)
SATURDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies, with a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms.
low: 19C (67F)
SUNDAY: mostly cloudy and becoming foggy. good chance of rain, along with some thunder.
high: 23C (73F)
MONDAY: cloudy and foggy with periods of rain likely. chance of a thunderstorm as well.
high: 22C (72F)
TUESDAY: mostly cloudy with areas of fog. still a good chance of rain.
high: 22C (72F)
WEDNESDAY: mix of clouds and sun. one or two showers possible.
high: 23C (74F)
Friday, July 2, 2010
friday evening>
this friday contained a little something for everyone. we had a beautiful morning, with lots of sun. then a cloudy afternoon with some humidity, followed by a thundershower during the late afternoon and early evening which yeilded just 0.13" (3mm) of rain in mcleod ganj. the high temp today was 25c/77f at the weathergeek office... although it felt warmer before the clouds moved in, due to the humidity.
we're expecting more of the same tomorrow... a mix of clouds and sun, along with some thundershowers popping up here and there. but then it looks like better chances of more widespread rainfall, along with higher humidity and fog on sunday and monday. the authentic onset of the monsoon is being held off by a couple of things: 1) west-northwesterly flow aloft, which is keeping dry air in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere... and 2) upper-level disturbances in that flow, which are deflecting the deep monsoon moisture, and keeping it stalled out to our south and east. it does appear that this west-northwest flow pattern will weaken and break down gradually... so that means that our monsoon onset could be sudden and dramatic. at any rate... more humidity, cooler temps and better rain chances are on the way...
FRIDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies and rather pleasant, with just a slight chance of a thundershower.
low: 19C (67F)
SATURDAY: a mix of sun and clouds. increasing humidity, with a chance of thundershowers, mainly during the afternoon.
high: 24C (76F)
SUNDAY: mostly cloudy and rather muggy, with some fog. good chance of some rain and thundershowers.
high: 23C (73F)
MONDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy, with periods of rain likely.
high: 22C (72F)
TUESDAY: still mostly cloudy with some fog. good chance of more rain.
high: 23C (73F)
WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of a few showers.
high: 24C (74F)
we're expecting more of the same tomorrow... a mix of clouds and sun, along with some thundershowers popping up here and there. but then it looks like better chances of more widespread rainfall, along with higher humidity and fog on sunday and monday. the authentic onset of the monsoon is being held off by a couple of things: 1) west-northwesterly flow aloft, which is keeping dry air in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere... and 2) upper-level disturbances in that flow, which are deflecting the deep monsoon moisture, and keeping it stalled out to our south and east. it does appear that this west-northwest flow pattern will weaken and break down gradually... so that means that our monsoon onset could be sudden and dramatic. at any rate... more humidity, cooler temps and better rain chances are on the way...
FRIDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies and rather pleasant, with just a slight chance of a thundershower.
low: 19C (67F)
SATURDAY: a mix of sun and clouds. increasing humidity, with a chance of thundershowers, mainly during the afternoon.
high: 24C (76F)
SUNDAY: mostly cloudy and rather muggy, with some fog. good chance of some rain and thundershowers.
high: 23C (73F)
MONDAY: mostly cloudy and foggy, with periods of rain likely.
high: 22C (72F)
TUESDAY: still mostly cloudy with some fog. good chance of more rain.
high: 23C (73F)
WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of a few showers.
high: 24C (74F)
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