where is the monsoon?

was just checking archives of monsoon advances in the past few years. just last year in 2009, the northern limit of the monsoon was stuck along a line from southern gujarat to kolkata and bhutan from 25 may until 28 june. then suddenly, IN ONE DAY, the northern limit surged northwestward to dehra dun (29 june), and the next day (30 june) to central rajasthan and punjab.!! that means, in the space of 2 days, all of north india was engulfed in monsoon conditions, after the northern limit had been hung up for an entire month well to the south.

i've been talking to locals around town... a couple of guys said "any day now". but another one told me "15 july". 15 july!!! that would be near a record late onset date. our buddies down at the IMD (india met department) are still saying that a gradual norward push will occur during the next few days. i guess we'll just have to keep the umbrellas handy, and our eyes peeled to the southeast for that signature gray fog bank...

friday morning>

partly cloudy skies and 19c/67f before sunrise on this friday morning. the satellite pic is showing numerous patches of clouds all over northern india and pakistan. the chain of upper-level disturbances from central asia into kashmir has pretty much merged with the soup of tropical moisture over much of sub-himalayan india... so wide areas of clear and dry weather are hard to find. scattered thunderstorms will fire up again today across the area... they continue to be hit and miss, but when they hit, heavy rainfall is a good bet. the mugginess will continue to increase as we head through the weekend... along with the potential for areas of fog... and increasing chances of more widespread rain. how much longer will our pre-monsoon grace days last??

FRIDAY: partly cloudy in the morning, mostly cloudy in the afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms. some fog possible as well.
high: 25C (77F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: chance of a thundershower. otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 20C (68F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with areas of fog. good chance of a thundershower or two.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy with some fog. good chance of rain and possibly a thunderstorm.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: cloudy and foggy with rain and some thunder likely.
high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with fog... a few rainshowers around.
high: 22C (72F)

thursday evening>

some good rains were reported this morning down in lower dharamsala, from near nobulingka over to gaggal, but here in mcleod ganj, all we were able to muster were enough drops to dampen the roads. this evening the skies have looked ominous again, but no thundershowers have developed as of 645pm. temps today were on the cool side... barely making it to 24c/75f at the weathergeek office. BUT the humidity has been climbing and climbing... now hovering around 65-70% even during the mid-afternoon hours. this gradual saturation of our atmosphere will continue steadily through the next several days, along with a lowering of cloud bases, which means some fog in mcleod. showers and thunderstorms will be random/ hit and miss... but when they HIT, they could dump some heavy rain in just an hour or two. in previous years, the monsoon has come very suddenly and dramatically, but it seems that this season it is advancing by degrees...

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy and humid. still a chance of thundershowers developing overnight.
low: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies. muggy with some fog. chance of one or two thundershowers.
high: 24C (75F)

SATURDAY: mostly cloudy, foggy and humid, with a good chance of rain. a thunderstorm also possible.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog. good chance of rain.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: cloudy and humid with fog. rain likely.
high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY: mostly cloudy skies. foggy with a good chance of rain.
high: 22C (72F)

thursday morning>

this morning has an erie feel to it... some haze and fog, scattered clouds, and the sound of distant thunder to the southwest. starting off at 21c/69f just before sunrise. large-scale conditions have not changed in the last couple of days, that means we can continue to expect a gradual increase in humidity, a good amount of haze and light fog, along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms popping up at any time. the satellite pic this morning shows a good amount of cloudiness scattered throughout northern india, with deep tropical moisture and widespread thunderstorms pressing into UP. temperatures will continue to be restricted by the murky skies, with afternoon highs trending downward as we move into the weekend...

THURSDAY: partly to mostly cloudy, hazy and a bit foggy, with a couple of periods of thundershowers likely.
high: 25C (77F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: a good chance of showers and/or a thunderstorm.
low: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly cloudy, humid and foggy. chance of thundershowers.
high: 24C (75F)

SATURDAY: a few peeks of sun, otherwise mostly cloudy and foggy with a few periods of rainshowers.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY: a few periods of rain likely. mostly cloudy and foggy.
high: 23C (73F)

MONDAY: lots of clouds, areas of fog. some rain likely.
high: 23C (73F)