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Wednesday, February 18, 2015

threats remain... (am.18.feb.15)>

We have a partly cloudy sky at sunrise this morning, and I'm recording an overnight low temperature of 48.0F (8.9C).  There has been no rainfall since last evening's report, and none in the past 24 hours or so.

Rain shower development since about this time yesterday morning has remained well to our north and northwest, but the latest in this very long series of upper-level disturbances is starting to move across HImachal Pradesh now.  We'll see if the right combination of upper-level dynamics and low-level moisture can stir up some showers today.  It still looks like a period of heavier precipiation may be on the way (unfortunately) tomorrow, the first day of Tibetan Losar, into mid-day Friday.  Earlier it had looked like rain would be most likely during the afternoon hours tomorrow, but the latest models are showing some development during the morning.  Of course the models are usually quite lousy at nailing down the exact timing of these individual ripples/disturbances moving through, but we need to be prepared for a potentially wet scenario as Losar arrives.

There is good news... and that's due to indications that we may have an extended break before the next system moves in.  It looks like a very potent one, but it may hold off until perhaps Monday night or Tuesday, leaving us with a dry and warmer stretch over the weekend and into Monday.  The bad news is that wet and stormy conditions could linger throughout the majority of next week.  Still a very active pattern!