increasing thundershower risk... (pm.19.mar.19)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 51.3ºF (10.7ºC)
High temp: 64.1ºF (17.8ºC)
Precipitation: none

There was a greater percentage of sunshine today than expected (no complaints), and that allowed temperatures to end up a bit warmer than expected as well.  I've now recorded four days in a row with temps above 60ºF (16ºC), and I think we'd all agree that it's been much more pleasant and comfortable.

A rather intense storm system is centered over south-central Turkmenistan this evening, and will be weakening as it pushes east-northeastward during the coming 48hrs or so.  Models had been showing some thundershower development in our vicinity to be starting by now, but the latest data indicates that will be holding off until after midnight, at least.  If and when we do get those thundershowers, temperatures will fall significantly, erasing the gains we've enjoyed the last few days.  That risk of precipitation will be around tomorrow (Wed) and tomorrow night -- and possibly even into Thursday, which is Holi, and also the official first day of Spring.

But rebounding temps are in the forecast through the weekend into early next week.. 

another high for the year... (pm.18.mar.19)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 50.2ºF (10.1ºC)
High temp: 64.2ºF (17.9ºC)
Precipitation: none

I registered another new high temp today for the season and the year... with assistance coming from totally sunny skies into the early afternoon, enhancing a milder air mass nosing in from the south.  Shower development was confined to the higher elevations this afternoon, though we did take part in an increase in cloudiness.

We'll continue in this variety-mode tomorrow (Tue) -- with a mix of clouds and sun and a slight chance of a shower or thundershower late in the day.  But there is another storm system on the way which will give us a better chance of rain showers and thunder on Tuesday night and Wednesday... with a chance of some random thundershowers lasting into Thursday as well.  Thursday happens to be HOLI, and also the Spring Equinox.

It has been so nice to get a taste of some milder/more pleasant temperatures, and in spite of a set-back during the mid-week period... we should resume our warming trend by the weekend.

a march mix... (pm.17.mar.19)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 48.4ºF (9.1ºC)
High temp: 61.0ºF (16.1ºC)
Precipitation: 0.02" (less than 1mm)

We've had all kinds of variety today... with a brief shower along with very gusty winds just before sunrise this morning... lots of cloudiness into the late morning... then a good amount of sunshine mid-day into the late afternoon... a period of light thundershowers this evening... and finally, a return to partly cloudy skies after dark.  For the second day in a row I recorded a high temp above 60ºF (16ºC) -- and that's the first time that's happened this year.

There's nothing all that new to report, as we remain under the influence of a relatively unstable atmosphere... in spite of these milder temperatures.  Look out for the risk of isolated/passing thundershowers tomorrow (Mon) and Tuesday as well, with a better chance of more persistent/consistent rain/thundershowers Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Even the latter part of the week will feature unstable conditions with a decent chance of a passing thundershower or two... but it looks like our temps will be a bit milder into next weekend.

Forecast details are available on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

tops for 2019... (pm.16.mar.19)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 46.9ºF (8.3ºC)
High temp: 62.1ºF (16.7ºC)
Precipitation: none

I recorded the mildest/warmest high temp of 2019 early this afternoon, in the midst of sunshine and patchy high cloudiness.  There's still a bit of a chill in the air, but it was nice to see the thermometer climbing a bit.

Our overall pattern remains disturbed, however, and that means we're going to see some cloudy periods, along with occasional chances of some periods of showers and/or thundershowers during this upcoming week.  There are no major storm systems threatening, but disturbances in the upper atmosphere rippling through, combined with at least a moderate amount of moisture availability will keep us a bit on our toes.  It still looks like the best chance of showers exists in the window between late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK for details.

fighting forward... (pm.15.mar.19)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 42.6ºF (5.9ºC)

High temp: 57.2ºF (14.0ºC)

Precipitation: 0.03" (less than 1mm)

Well... it was another one of those classic McLeod Ganj days that featured seductive sunshine until mid-day, and then the development of clouds and mountain thundershowers in the afternoon to spoil the mood.  Even though we had that period of showers, very small hail, gusty winds and thunder off-and-on for a little more than an hour in the 3:00-4:00pm range, the actual rainfall amount was very small at my location here in the upper part of town.  Then... rapid clearing occurred as the evening set in.

The temperature trend this month has been generally upward, even though we've had some significant set-backs in the midst of it.  That scenario will continue as we progress through the coming week or so, with that almost ever-present risk of a random thundershower, and an even more significant chance of rain coming in between late Tuesday and late Wednesday.  Holi is on Thursday, coinciding this year with the Spring Equinox -- and there is evidence that those events could mark a noticeable turn toward a more favorable springtime weather pattern.  We shall see if that outlook holds.

Details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

disturbed pattern persists... (pm.13.mar.19)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 41.9ºF (5.5ºC) -- at 7:05pm
High temp: 53.8ºF (12.1ºC) -- at 4:50am
Precipitation: 0.13" (3mm) -- updated thru midnight

It was quite mild early this morning, in advance of our latest incoming storm system.  Mostly cloudy skies throughout the day led to a few sprinkles of rain around noon, and then some actual showers by mid-afternoon, which increased slightly in intensity during the evening hours.  We've also had some very gusty winds at times.  The day's low temperature occurred during a brief heavier rain shower shortly after 7pm.

The center of an upper-level low pressure circulation is located over extreme northern Afghanistan right now, channeling a moderate amount of moisture up against the western Himalayan ranges.  We're still stuck in a pattern featuring wave after wave of these upper-level disturbances, with only a couple of days of relatively pleasant weather in between.  This latest disturbance will keep scattered rain showers in the forecast overnight and tomorrow (Thu), though it's possible we could see more sunshine tomorrow than we saw today.  Things look gradually better on Friday, and then relatively quiet and significantly milder on Saturday -- but the risk of showers will increase again on Sunday... and again by late Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Still waiting for that elusive breakthrough that will usher in a true change of seasons.

ups and downs... (pm.12.mar.19)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 44.2ºF (6.8ºC)
High temp: 57.0ºF (13.9ºC)
Precipitation: none

It was really nice to have a genuinely sunny day... one of the few we've been able to experience in a long time.  There was a bit of cumulus development along the Dhauladhars during the afternoon, but none of that got anywhere close to producing any precipitation.

Unfortunately, our atmosphere will be destabilizing again during the day tomorrow (Wed), with another chance of some shower development by late afternoon or evening, and a better chance of rain overnight into Thursday.  The latest models indicate instability lingering all the way into Friday as well, so expect fluctuations between clouds and sun with the threat of random showers.  The point is, we're still not breaking into an extended streak of dry weather, even if our overall temperature trend will be generally upward in the long-term.

fickle/changeable pattern... (pm.11.mar.19)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 41.7ºF (5.4ºC) -- at 2:45pm
High temp: 51.6ºF (10.9ºC) -- at 10:20am
Precipitation: 0.29" (7mm)

It's been an upside/down kind of day (see stats above) -- I recorded the day's high temperature during the mid-morning, with the low temp occurring during a period of moderate rain showers during the mid-afternoon.  Those rain showers got going pretty much according to expectations, but things have cleared out already this evening.

This recent storm system has really picked up the pace, and seems to be moving out much earlier than expected.  There could still be some rain and/or thundershower development overnight and tomorrow (Tuesday), but the upper-level low pressure center is weakening rapidly and lifting northward, and should allow some stabilization to occur between now and late Wednesday.  Yet another storm system moving in from the west will increase our rain chances again between Wednesday evening and early Friday... so we're going to be dealing with a lot of back-and-forth stuff in the coming days.

But in the long run, you can see on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK that our overall temperature trend will be upward during the coming week...

rain risk rising again... (pm.10.mar.19)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 47.8ºF (8.8ºC)
High temp: 60.9ºF (16.1ºC)
Precipitation: none

We fell short, by less than one degree fahrenheit (and just a fraction of a degree celsius), of the warmest day of 2019... but it was not only the second-warmest day of the year, but also the second-warmest since about the middle of December.  Abundant sunshine during the morning gave way to quite a lot of cloud development by around 1:30-2:00pm, which lingered through the rest of the afternoon into the evening.  Skies have cleared out again with stars appearing after dark, however.

A well-defined storm system is visible on this evening's satellite pics, centered along the Iran/Afghanistan border.  This system is going to bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms into our area by mid-day Monday, with the best rain potential between late afternoon and very early Tuesday morning.  With clouds and showers, of course our temperatures will be cooling off again.

The risk of showers will decrease a bit, temporarily, from late Tuesday through Wednesday, but then we'll have an increasing chance of rain/thunder Wednesday night into early Friday.  And at least as of right now, drier weather and milder temps are teasing us as next weekend approaches.

near-term positives... (pm.09.mar.19)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 43.7ºF (6.5ºC)
High temp: 58.3ºF (14.6ºC)
Precipitation: 0.01" (less than 1mm)

Full sunshine during the early and mid-morning gradually gave way to partly cloudy skies during the late morning -- with the temp at my location in the upper part of town climbing to the highest I've recorded since a very brief spell of mild weather on the 13th of Feb.  But then there was some rogue thundershower development which produced a rain shower with some very small hail during the mid-afternoon.  All of that action quickly dissipated though, with mostly clear skies again by the evening.

We're still poised for the mildest/warmest day of the season and the year tomorrow, Sunday, Uprising Day.  Warming throughout all layers of the atmosphere, along with a minimal amount of moisture availability, will provide us with a good amount of sunshine and only the slightest risk of a brief afternoon shower.

A destabilizing atmosphere is on the way again by the middle of Monday, however, with a good chance of a few periods of rain and thunderstorms lasting into Tuesday.  And unfortunately, the models have been trending toward a variably cloudy and off-and-on showery/thundery pattern through most of next week.  The good news is that our temperatures should bounce back nicely whenever the sun peeks through.  More incremental hints of spring.

a moderating trend... (pm.07.mar.19)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 43.2ºF (6.2ºC)
High temp: 56.1ºF (13.4ºC)
Precipitation: none

We've had no precipitation right here in McLeod for the second day in a row (wow), but there were rain and snow showers with thunder in the higher elevations not only along the Dhauladhars this afternoon, but also along most of the higher mountain ranges of Himachal, Kashmir and Uttarakhand.  Our temperatures continue their slow and gradual moderation.

That trend toward milder weather will persist during the coming two or three days, though there will continue to be a mentionable risk of a couple of passing rain showers tomorrow (Fri) into Saturday.  Right now Sunday is looking very nice, with a good amount of sunshine, and temperatures near or exceeding the warmest we've experienced in 2019 so far.

A new storm system will threaten us with a period of more significant rain and thunderstorms late Monday into Tuesday... but it should move out by the middle of next week, with a surge of dry and pleasant springtime weather expected thereafter.

Check details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK, above.

struggling upward... (pm.06.mar.19)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 42.8ºF (6.0ºC)
High temp: 54.4ºF (12.4ºC)
Precipitation: none

Full sunshine during the early and mid-morning hours gave way to rapid cloud development over the mountains again today... but fortunately, the precipitation remained further up-mountain from us, with some significant rain and snow showers in the higher elevations along the Dhauladhars.  My high temp was the mildest I've recorded since the 23rd of Feb.

We're not having a rapid and dramatic swing toward more springtime conditions, but the incremental changes during the coming week to ten days are looking rather encouraging.  We've still got a mentionable risk of some rain showers in and around our area all the way through the upcoming forecast period, but there will also be some nice periods of sunshine, with a general moderation in temperatures.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (tab above) contains forecast details.

seasonal battles... (pm.05.mar.19)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 40.6ºF (4.8ºC)
High temp: 51.4ºF (10.8ºC)
Precipitation: 0.20" (5mm)

What a great early-mid morning we had... with brilliant sunshine and milder temperatures.  But -- with very cold air aloft, there was literally an explosion of cloudiness during the hour before noon, with the first round of sprinkles and light rain showers getting going right at mid-day.  That led to a healthy round of rain showers and thunder between about 12:30 and 2:15pm... followed by clearing and another dose of sunshine during the mid-late afternoon... and then yet another round of showers/thunder during the evening between 5:00 and 6:30pm.  All the while, the sun was shining not far downhill.

A massive temperature disparity exists along the western Himalayas... with very cold air entrenched to our north-northeast, and milder/warmer air building to our south.  We are stuck right in the middle, which means we are in the zone of major instability.  This situation is not going to ease up in the near future, so it looks like we are still in line for a wide variety of weather conditions -- sun, clouds, the threat of rain/thunder showers, as temperatures attempt to very slowly moderate.

We may break into some stable and significantly milder and drier weather (temporarily) over the weekend... but the pattern remains volatile and changeable until at least the middle of the month.

atmospheric conflicts... (pm.04.mar.19)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 39.9ºF (4.4ºC)
High temp: 53.8ºF (12.1ºC)
Precipitation: 0.40" (1cm) -- updated thru midnight

A batch of thundershowers developed just to our southwest this evening, and has been hanging overhead for a couple of hours now.  We also had a couple of periods of showers early this morning, and some rumbling thunder during the mid-afternoon.  But in addition to all that, there was also a good amount of sunshine in the midst of the cloudiness today, which boosted the high temp on my thermometer a few degrees higher than expected right around the noon hour.

A sprawling and expansive area of low pressure and very cold air aloft is keeping our atmosphere very unstable -- especially with the increasing strength of our early March sunshine warming up the surface layers during the daylight hours.  We are now into the time of year when lingering winter elements are battling against the advance of springtime air building further south across the Indian sub-continent.  There are several opportunities for some scattered showers to develop during the coming week, but at the same time, it looks like there will be a slow/gradual moderation in temperatures.

It still appears that we could see some fairly significant movement toward generally drier and warmer weather as we move into the middle of the month.  Let's hope that pans out.

unstable conditions... (pm.03.mar.19)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 38.5ºF (3.6ºC)
High temp: 49.2ºF (9.6ºC)
Precipitation: 0.31" (8mm)
Storm total precip: 1.06" (2.7cm) -- since Saturday morning

Most of today's measurable rainfall occurred before dawn, though we did get a few passing/fleeting light showers (with some thunder) off and on during the day.  There was also a lot of variability between clouds and sunshine.

The vast majority of moisture associated with this current upper-level storm system has swept well east of us, but our atmosphere is going to remain quite unstable during the next couple of days, and that will keep the mention of some mainly light rain shower development in the forecast.  The cloud/sun battles that we've seen so much of recently will continue as well, thanks to that instability.

This chilly air mass is not going to be in a big hurry to depart, though there are indications that we'll see some noticeable moderation in temperatures toward the end of this week.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for forecast specifics.

wetness... (pm.02.mar.19)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 39.2ºF (4.0ºC) -- at 8:00pm
High temp: 49.1ºF (9.5ºC) -- at 3:45am
Precipitation: 0.75" (1.9cm) -- *updated through midnight*

It's been a crazy day, temperature-wise, with the high occurring during the wee hours of the morning, and the low occurring just recently.  With full cloudiness, no sun, and increasing rain showers, those temps have been gradually sliding all throughout the day.  Steady light rain has been falling since about mid-afternoon, though as of right now, the amount in the rain gauge isn't all that impressive.

But -- the bulk of rainfall with this incoming system is expected to happen overnight into tomorrow (Sun) morning, so the precipitation total you see in the stats above is going to increase significantly.  The center of this latest storm system is located way off to our northwest over central Asia, but it has tapped into a lot of moisture from the Arabian Sea which is being drawn northeastward and wrung out all along the western Himalayan ranges.  The snow line should stay above us this time around, but accumulations of snow up-mountain will be on the order of one to two feet, and maybe more, by Monday morning.  

Unstable conditions will keep us flirting with lingering rain/snow showers in our general area both Monday and Tuesday, though we should see some sunshine returning as well.  The latter part of the week should feature a gradual trend toward some milder weather... but it will likely be the following week before we have the potential to see a more noticeable change of seasons.

more rain ahead... (pm.01.mar.19)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 39.0ºF (3.9ºC)
High temp: 52.4ºF (11.3ºC)
Precipitation: none

This first day of March featured a lot of beautiful blue sky and sunshine during the first half of the day, with the mildest temps since last Saturday.  Clouds gradually thickened up during the PM hours, however, with temperatures sliding slightly, and totally overcast conditions well before sunset.

The next in a seemingly endless series of storm systems is taking shape to our west right now, and the latest computer model data would suggest that we could see some rain shower development by around noon tomorrow (Sat).  There will be more moisture drawn into this system than we saw during the last one -- but temperatures are not expected to be nearly as cold.  That will of course keep the snow line much further up-mountain until the very final stages late Monday into Tuesday, as some colder air tries to threaten us, temporarily.  It's going to be a rather long period of off-and-on wet weather, with numerous periods of showers and thundershowers expected during that mid-day Saturday through Tuesday time frame.

There are hints of a better-looking realignment of our weather pattern by the latter part of next week, which could lead to our first preliminary tastes of real springtime weather as we head into the second week of March.  Something to look forward to???

feb to march transition... (pm.28.feb.19)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 33.3ºF (0.7ºC)
High temp: 47.7ºF (8.7ºC)
Precipitation: none

After a very cold dawn, with temperatures very near or a bit below freezing all across town, bright sunshine appeared... providing us with a really nice morning, as temperatures quickly rebounded.  There was the expected build-up of cloudiness just before noon, but we still had the sun coming into the picture off and on through the rest of the day.  In spite of the sunshine, it was a cold end to the month of February 2019.

A milder air mass is trying to push northward right now... but at the same time, there is a new storm system developing off to our west.  The most recent models are accelerating the arrival of the next round of precipitation -- in the form of rain and thundershowers -- as early as mid-day Saturday.  In the meantime, we'll see periods of cloudiness with (hopefully) a bit of sun mixed in.

The risk of rain showers and thunder will hang around through Sunday into Monday, with a chance of an isolated shower or two even into Tuesday.  Although temps will stay cooler than we would want for early March, it will be milder than what we've recently endured into the middle of next week.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK for forecast details...

a mid-winter feel... (pm.27.feb.19)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 34.3ºF (1.3ºC)
High temp: 39.8ºF (4.3ºC)
Precipitation: 0.16" (4mm) -- melted
Snowfall: 0.90" (2.3cm)

The high temperature I recorded today was the coldest of this entire winter season -- very impressive for the tail-end of February.  There has been a wide variety of precipitation types all across our area today... from rain to sleet to snow grains/pellets to genuine snow flakes of all sizes and shapes.  But as you can see from the stats above, the total melted precipitation amount has been quite small... less than we were expecting.  Even so... I've received first-hand reports of nearly a half-foot of snow in upper Dharamkot, and more than a foot further up-mountain.  Right here in McLeod, the vast majority of the measurable snowfall I received today occurred between about 2:00 and 3:30pm.

This mid-winter style upper-level low pressure system is now centered over the northwest corner of Kashmir, and is already weakening as it lifts east-northeastward.  Lingering snow showers will fizzle out overnight, with some partial clearing possible as well.  The return of a bit of sunshine is expected both tomorrow and Friday, though there is likely to be some cloudiness hanging around and re-developing.  Temperatures should rebound, but of course the sun/cloud battles will play a major part in how that works out.

Our next storm system will bring in another chance of rain and thundershowers by late Saturday, lasting into Sunday -- but the good news is that temperatures will not be nearly as cold as we've seen the last couple of days.

cold... snow threat... (pm.26.feb.19)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 35.4ºF (1.9ºC)
High temp: 48.6ºF (9.2ºC)
Precipitation: 0.03" (1mm) -- melted
Snowfall: 0.2" (5mm)

The day began with some random snow showers, and has ended with more light snow... but in between, we've had cloudiness interspersed with a nice period of sunshine right in the middle of the day.  You can see from the stats above that our precipitation has been very light up til now.

That huge area of upper-level low pressure we've been talking about is now centered over northeastern Afghanistan, with the counter-clockwise circulation ahead of it drawing moisture northward against the north Indian Himalayan ranges.  The amount of moisture available is not all that impressive, but the cold air mass is... and that's what is providing us with the threat of measurable snowfall during the coming 18-24 hours or so.  There is still a chance that around a half-inch of precipitation could materialize, and that translates into a 4-5" (10-13cm) snowfall somewhere in our general area by tomorrow (Wed) evening.  It will be interesting to watch if/how/when that might happen.

Quiet weather is in the forecast for the period between Thursday and mid-day Saturday, as temperatures recover from this recent cold spell... but we're still anticipating another round of wet weather during the early part of next week.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK contains the latest forecast details...

winter hangs on... (pm.25.feb.19)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 41.9ºF (5.5ºC)
High temp: 48.9ºF (9.4ºC)
Precipitation: none

It's been a cold late February day, as temperatures continue their slide which has been going on for a couple of days now.  Again we had a lot of back-and-forth between clouds and glimpses of sunshine, but precipitation was restricted to a few passing rain and snow showers in the higher elevations well above town.

If you've been following along recently, you know we're watching a big sprawling area of cold low pressure in the upper-levels of the atmosphere as it gradually oozes and seeps south-southeastward from central Asia into the western and central Himalayan region.  At the same time, there is an increasing draw of moisture coming in from the Arabian Sea to our southwest... however, computer model data runs during the last 36 hours or so have been less aggressive with the amount of moisture available.  As of now, it looks like we could see around a half inch (1.2cm) of precipitation in our general area between later tonight and Wednesday night -- with most of that expected between late tomorrow (Tue) and Wednesday evening.  Temperature profiles indicate that much of that precip could be in the form of snow, even down to our elevation here in McLeod, which could deliver a rare late Feb snowfall event.  Accumulating snowfall this late in the season is something that was not so strange in the olden days, but has become unusual in the past couple of decades.

Thursday and Friday are looking generally quiet, and milder, but then the next in a long long long series of storm systems will begin to affect us by late Saturday into Monday with more wet weather...

an active and changeable pattern... (pm.24.feb.19)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 43.7ºF (6.5ºC)
High temp: 51.6ºF (10.9ºC)
Precipitation: none

We're completing another day featuring lots of variability between clouds and sunshine all throughout, but with no precipitation at all for the second day in a row.  The high temp was a few degrees cooler than on Saturday, as we were expecting.

The main feature of our current weather pattern centers on a broad area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere over central Asia, which is expanding and sinking toward the southeast.  One of the coldest air masses of this entire winter season is associated with this system, and will keep our temperatures unusually cool during this coming week.

There is also a significant batch of moisture that is being pulled in our direction from the Arabian Sea -- most of it arriving between late Tuesday and Wednesday evening.  The data this evening is not looking as impressive as it was 24hrs ago, as the main trajectory of that moisture seems to be directed just to our east-southeast -- into Uttarakhand and Nepal.  Even so, it still looks like we've got a decent chance of some light to moderate accumulations of snowfall in our general area during that late Tuesday through Wednesday time frame.  Stay tuned as we watch if this all comes together, or not.

Further ahead... yet another storm system with the potential to produce significant precipitation will threaten us in about a week from right now, by the end of the first weekend of the new month.

gradually colder again... (pm.23.feb.19)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 43.7ºF (6.5ºC)
High temp: 55.8ºF (13.2ºC)
Precipitation: none

It was a beautiful Saturday morning, with lots of sunshine and pleasantly mild temperatures... but clouds of all types and varieties developed/moved in by about 1:00pm, making for a less pleasant mid- and late afternoon.  We have seen some clearing again this evening, however.

As we move into the final days of February 2019, we've got yet more interesting weather to watch.  Colder air in the upper-levels of the atmosphere will be gradually sinking southward across Himalayan north India during the next few days, as a fresh batch of moisture begins to ease in from the south-southwest.  This will lead to more variable periods of cloudiness, and also a gradual increase in the risk of a few light/passing rain showers.  The best chance of precipitation should hold off until mid-day Tuesday through Wednesday... and by the time that happens, we're going to be under the influence of a very cold air mass for late Feb.  Right now, I'm pretty impressed with the chance of some accumulating snowfall here at our elevation during that period.  We'll have to monitor the latest models/data to see if that forecast holds.

As always... keep an eye on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (tab above) for details.

feeble recovery attempts... (pm.22.feb.19)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 44.4ºF (6.9ºC)
High temp: 52.4ºF (11.3ºC)
Precipitation: 0.10" (3mm)
Storm total precip: 2.04" (5.2cm) -- since wed evening

There were some nice periods of sunshine in the midst of clouds and fog today...  but at least we got rid of most of the rain.  Thunder was still rumbling and light rain showers passing through early this morning, but the last of the measurable rainfall at my house occurred around 8:30am.  Temperatures were a bit milder, but still cooler than normal for late February.

We will again be in-between storm systems the next day or two, with the potential for a bit more sunshine and at least tomorrow (Sat), some milder temperatures.  But our weather pattern is still not a peaceful and serene one -- not at all -- with yet another developing storm system in the forecast for the first half of next week.  Accompanying this next system will be an extremely cold air mass for this time of year, which could mean a healthy dose of late-winter snowfall in our general area late Tuesday through Wednesday.  Models have been shifting and fluctuating, so of course we'll have to wait and see how things develop between now and then...

Keep track of details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

storm system winding down... (pm.21.feb.19)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 43.3ºF (6.3ºC)
High temp: 50.9ºF (10.5ºC)
Precipitation: 1.59" (4.0cm) -- updated thru midnight
Storm total precip: 1.94" (4.9cm) -- since wed evening

At this moment there is still thunder, occasional rain showers, and some brief gusty winds happening.  We've had those conditions on and off and on and off all day long... and since last evening, actually.  As of now, precipitation amounts with this latest storm system are running below expectations -- with the greater totals occurring in the higher elevations to our north and northeast (mostly in the form of snow).

All data points to a gradual decrease/lessening of shower/thunder intensity overnight, with most of the precipitation coming to an end by mid-day Friday.  We might actually see some sunshine appearing tomorrow, with temperatures quickly rebounding nicely.

But -- very cold central Asian air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere is going to drop southward across the northern one-third of India between mid-day Sunday and Tuesday.  This will destabilize our atmosphere once again, and could produce some scattered rain and snow showers during that period of time.  Moisture will be limited, but the mountain effect is a wildcard.  Hopefully we'll see a trend toward some milder weather by the middle of next week...

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (above) for forecast specs.

it's raining again... (pm.20.feb.19)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 44.2ºF (6.8ºC)
High temp: 54.0ºF (12.2ºC)
Precipitation: 0.35" (1mm) -- updated thru midnight

Our weather this morning was very very nice... compared to what has started to happen this evening.  We had much more sunshine than expected, with temperatures warming up nicely until the early afternoon.  After that, the anticipated increase in cloudiness began in earnest, leaving us with thick cloud cover and finally the development of occasional light to moderate rain showers and very gusty winds this evening.

The center of a strong late-winter storm system is sitting over the middle of Afghanistan right now, and will bring us some rather unsavory weather conditions during the coming 36 hours or so.  There is plenty of moisture available, along with a lot of rotation/upward lift associated with a strong low pressure circulation aloft as it crashes up against the front ranges of the north Indian Himalayas.  Right now it looks like we could see around 2.5 to 3.5 inches (7-9cm) of rain between tonight and early Friday.  The snow line will stay well above us... with 2-3 feet of new snow up toward Triund.  They are absolutely buried up there after what's happened since early January.

Most of this moisture will depart over the weekend, as a very deep and cold upper-level low pressure center passes overhead between Sunday and Tuesday of next week.  Periods of rain/snow showers are likely during that period, as temperatures plunge well below normal for late Feb.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for details...

one hit after another... (pm.19.feb.19)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 37.6ºF (3.1ºC)
High temp: 45.9ºF (7.7ºC)
Precipitation: 0.26" (7mm)

Today's rainfall amount was confined to the pre-dawn hours, but combined with what occurred last evening, I had a total of 1.86" (4.7cm) in the gauge for this recent rain event.  A quick dose of snowfall last night near my elevation was short-lived, and melted quickly.  There were a few fleeting glimpses of sunshine today, otherwise it was mostly cloudy with a couple of brief, light sprinkles of rain in the air.

We are 'in between' right now, as the next storm system in this one-two punch organizes to our west.  A milder air mass will begin to be drawn northward as this system approaches, and right now it looks like our next round of significant precipitation will get underway late tomorrow (Wed) into the evening and overnight hours.  Winds will pick up, and the risk of thunderstorms will also enter the picture again.  Periods of rain, gusty winds, along with thunder and lightning are expected through Thursday night, with some lingering rain showers into Friday as well.  The snow line should remain well above us, and maybe even above Galu this time around.

But -- an unseasonably cold air mass will sweep south-southeastward after this system passes, with a mentionable risk of some instability-produced rain and snow showers early next week.  No signs yet of a decent spring warm-up.

february challenges... (pm.18.feb.19)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 35.6ºF (2.0ºC)
High temp: 48.1ºF (8.9ºC)
Precipitation: 1.60" (4.1cm) -- thru midnight
Snowfall: 0.2" (5mm)

A mix of rain and wet snow is in progress here in the upper part of McLeod Ganj late this evening.  I had a quick accumulation of slush during the last hour or so, but temperatures remain enough above freezing to prevent much snow from piling up.  About 80% of the above precipitation total has occurred since about 4:15pm.  In spite of a few quick periods of sunshine today, temperatures have been more in line with mid-late January rather than mid-Feb.

The first of two storm systems this week is currently moving through.  This one is the colder of the two, and that's why we're flirting with the snow line right now, and will continue to see a threat of snow overnight into early Tuesday morning.  There could be some accumulations very close to town during the next 12 hours.

From mid-day tomorrow (Tue) into Wednesday afternoon we might be able to scrounge out some kind of break in precipitation... but then the next storm system of the week will begin to move in.  This one will involve a milder/warmer air mass, but also the potential for heavier precipitation and even some thunderstorms and gusty winds.  Heavy rainfall is likely sometime between Wednesday evening and late Thursday night.

Get a look at the very busy and active forecast ahead, on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

wet week ahead... (pm.17.feb.19)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 41.4ºF (5.2ºC)
High temp: 49.0ºF (9.4ºC)
Precipitation: none

It's been another day of cloud/sun battles, with temperatures remaining well below normal for the middle of February.

Our weather pattern still looks very active this week, with a very strong baroclinic zone lying right along our latitude.  That means that competing air masses will be clashing right on top of us, as a good amount of mid-level moisture gets pumped in from the Arabian Sea to our southwest.  A very cold central Asian air mass will threaten to bring the snow line further downhill early this week, but at least as of now, milder air surging in from the south looks like it will take over by the latter part of the week.

We're already well above normal in terms of precipitation for this month, but it looks very likely we'll be adding to that over the course of the coming four or five days...

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK for specifics.

agitation... (pm.16.feb.19)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 39.6ºF (4.2ºC)
High temp: 48.9ºF (9.4ºC)
Precipitation: trace

Our Saturday didn't turn out as nice as expected, though if you are an early riser, you got to enjoy the 2-3 hours of bright sunshine before the rapid increase in cloudiness which got underway shortly after 10am.  There were another couple of periods of sun breaking through the clouds during the mid-day, and again during the late afternoon, but cloudiness definitely ended up dominating.  Temperatures were a few degrees milder than we experienced the last two days, but still below normal for this time of year.

The weather news moving forward is not good -- if you're in the mood for a trend toward a more spring-like scenario.  Our pattern is looking extremely unstable, unsettled and changeable throughout the coming week, with models flipping and flopping all over the place, with regard to both temperatures and precipitation potential.  Several pulses of upper-level energy combined with batches of moisture being forced up against the north Indian Himalayas will keep a mix of rain and snow in the forecast all week long, as temperatures average out cooler than normal for the latter half of February.

Monitor THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for forecast adjustments during this upcoming active weather week...

a weekend upswing... (pm.15.feb.19)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 39.4ºF (4.1ºC)
High temp: 45.7ºF (7.6ºC)
Precipitation: 2.00" (5.1cm)
*Total precip since Thursday: 2.85" (7.2cm)*

We've had a lot of rain since early yesterday (Thursday) afternoon, but just within the last hour or so, it seems like this latest storm system is finally winding down.  I recorded the heaviest rainfall overnight, but we've also had numerous periods of showers and thundershowers all day today, with an especially heavy thundershower this evening between about 5:30 and 6:30pm.  Temperatures were cold, and moved very little throughout the day.  The snow line remained well above us, and based on the rainfall here at our elevation, it's easy to deduce that there has been an additional 2-3ft of snow up toward Triund.

Dramatic improvements are expected this weekend, as what's left of this system moves east of us, and a weak ridge of high pressure builds into our area for a couple of days.  There will be some sunshine both Saturday and Sunday, but there will also most likely be some waves and patches of cloudiness, as slightly milder air tries to displace the cold air currently encamped here.

The models and data sets are showing yet another active period of weather coming in for next week, with temperatures running below normal for this stage of February.  It looks especially cold and wet by next Thursday and Friday.  Stay tuned, and keep an eye on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

another wet spell... (pm.14.feb.19)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 42.1ºF (5.6ºC) -- at 8:50pm
High temp: 55.8ºF (13.2ºC) -- at 2:30am
Precipitation: 0.85" (2.2cm) 
**all stats updated thru midnight**

It's raining quite heavily at this moment, with occasional gusty winds and even some thunder and lightning in the area.  There was a bit of sunshine off and on this morning, but scattered rain showers started to show up during the noon hour, with some heavier showers gradually developing as the afternoon and evening wore on.  Temperatures have been on a downward trend all through the day, as we were expecting.

The center of our latest upper-level storm system is located over northern Pakistan this evening, and will be moving just to our north during the coming 18-24 hours.  The main batch of moisture associated with this system is moving through right now, with the best chance of significant precipitation expected overnight into early Friday.  Models are keeping occasional showers in the area all the way into tomorrow (Fri) evening, but I think most of the precip will come to an end before that.  Let's see.  Temperatures have obviously been cooling down significantly, but we're still expecting the snow line to remain well above us, maybe as far downhill as the upper reaches of Dharamkot, Bhagsu and Naddi.  We'll escape the snow in McLeod this time around.

The weekend is looking quiet, but a very unsettled, unstable and potentially stormy weather pattern is being advertised for much of next week -- especially the mid- and latter parts of the week.  Data for that time period has been very inconsistent with some wild fluctuations, but it will be interesting to watch how it comes together.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK for forecast details.

mildest of 2019... (pm.13.feb.19)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 50.4ºF (10.2ºC)
High temp: 61.6ºF (16.4ºC)
Precipitation: none

Today was the mildest day of 2019, and more specifically, since the middle of December.  Although we had some waves and patches of fairly thick cloudiness off and on throughout the day, we also had some nice periods of sunshine mixed in as well.  It was our first little glimpse/sniff of spring, which was nice to experience after the last several weeks we've endured.

But the storm system we've been watching and talking about is still on approach, and we're going to be seeing increasing chances of some light to moderate rain during the coming 48 hours or so.  The snow line is still expected to remain well up-mountain from us this time around, but significant snowfall will occur once again above Galu Temple -- maybe on the order of one foot or more.  The best potential for that significant precipitation exists between mid-day Thursday and Friday evening.

Things will calm down over the weekend (good timing), but yet another storm system will be organizing and threatening us by late Monday into Tuesday of next week.  A late-winter push of colder air could accompany this system, with moderate to heavy rain/snow possible by Wednesday into Friday.  It just doesn't seem to slow down in the weather department this winter...

pattern still active... (pm.12.feb.19)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 47.8ºF (8.8ºC)
High temp: 56.1ºF (13.4ºC)
Precipitation: none

Clouds dominated over dim sunshine today, but our temperatures continued to climb... finally a little bit above normal for this stage of February.  There could have been a couple of very light/quick sprinkles of rain somewhere around the area today, but if so, it really wasn't enough to even produce a mentionable precipitation amount.

There is a significant storm system organizing well to our west right now, though it is not looking nearly as ominous, threatening, dangerous or damaging as the one we were bracing ourselves for this time last week.  There could be some fleeting light rain showers somewhere in our vicinity between now and early Thursday, but the best window for some notable precipitation amounts (rain here and snow higher up) will occur between the latter half of Thursday and late Friday.  It still looks clear that the snow line will remain well above McLeod, with some of the warmest overnight low temps of this winter season expected both tonight and tomorrow night, in advance of this system.

Unsettled weather should remain with us into next week... with another risk of occasional rain showers back in the forecast by Monday and Tuesday.  Check the details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab, above.

an unsettled period... (pm.11.feb.19)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 42.8ºF (6.0ºC)

High temp: 54.9ºF (12.7ºC)

Precipitation: none

We had a mix of sunshine and high clouds today, with the sunshine winning the majority in the final tally.  Temperatures continue their steady rise after the intense winter storm we experienced during the middle of last week.

Our pattern is still generally unsettled, with yet another storm system expected to sweep across northern India on Thursday and Friday.  In advance, we'll continue to see some waves/pulses of high cloudiness, with at least a mentionable risk of some fleeting light rain showers.  Temperatures will moderate a bit further, especially our overnight lows between now and Thursday morning.

Models have become more aggressive in terms of the potential for some significant rainfall late Thursday through Friday, though this time it looks fairly likely that the snow line will remain well above McLeod Ganj.  Still... there could be another foot or more of snow above Galu Temple and of course on up toward Triund.  Our active winter of 2019 continues...

some clouds, but milder... (pm.09.feb.19)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 37.2ºF (2.9ºC)

High temp: 49.7ºF (9.8ºC)

Precipitation: none

It's been a beautiful Saturday -- with lots of sunshine, interrupted by just a few mountain cumulus during the afternoon, and then some patchy cirrus clouds drifting in from the west during the evening.  Additionally, our temps moderated nicely, compared with the relative cold of the two previous days.  Electricity is being restored all across our area, which has been a huge boost to the moods of many (me included), though I am hearing that there are still a few spots here and there in the dark.

Our forecast as we move into the new week is a mixed bag.  Temperatures will be on the rise all the way until and through Thursday, as a high pressure ridge tries to build across northern India.  However, there are going to be at least a couple of minor disturbances riding along the north side of that ridge, keeping us in and out of waves of cloudiness, and also threatening us with at least a slight to middling risk of some light rain shower activity.  Right now it looks like late Wednesday into Friday morning might be the best chance to pick up some rainfall of any consequence -- but anything on the way this week will amount to very little in comparison to our recent winter storm system.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK on the tab above contains the details.

the after-effects... (pm.08.feb.19)>

Well it is close to 36 hours, and I am still without power.  I did manage to add a few percentage points to the battery power on my laptop earlier today, but it seems even where there is electricity, the voltage is very low, so it was tough for me to get it charged up.  Maybe there are others of you in similar straights.??

So here are the basic facts...

* I recorded 4.39" (11.2cm) of total melted precipitation with this storm system.
*Snowfall here at my house at the very upper part of town was exactly 6" (15cm).
*The lowest temperature I recorded occurred at 1:00am this morning -- 33.1ºF (0.6ºC).

This system was right on track as far as total precipitation and general snowfall amounts were concerned, but the timing advertised by the models was way off.  The changeover from rain to snow occurred about 6-10 hours later than the models had indicated, and then the end/shut off time of precipitation occurred much earlier than expected.  Well -- at least that provided us with a very nice Friday, with lots of sunshine to thaw us out.

Milder weather is in the forecast during the coming week or so, although at least a slight risk of rain showers exists between Monday and Friday.

cold, wet, white, dark... (pm.07.feb.19)>

This will be an abbreviated update, due to the fact that like most of you, I have no electricity, and the batteries on my devices are just about sucked dry.

It has been a pretty foul third day of Tibetan Losar, with high winds, thunder/lightning, numerous periods of rain showers, and then a very fast and dramatic switch-over to snow at 5:40pm -- about 6-10 hours later than expected.  We had a quick two inches of snow across most of town this evening, in about an hour and a half, and right now there is a mix of rain and wet snow in progress.

Additional accumulations of snow are quite likely overnight, though our temps are still not dropping much below about 34ºF (1ºC), which means that the melting and dripping commences just as soon as the accumulations occur.  

This system will hang around through much of tomorrow (Fri) as well, so let's stay prepared for cold, wet and snowy weather... and hope that the power/light/electricity returns soon.

building to a climax... (pm.06.feb.19)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 40.3ºF (4.6ºC) -- at 6:55pm
High temp: 53.5F (11.9ºC) -- at 11:45am
Precipitation: 0.51" (1.3cm) -- as of 8:15pm (melted)

Thunder/lightning, rain showers and small hail.  That's been the story since early this afternoon, as our major winter storm system continues to move in our direction.  We did have some periods of sunshine this morning in between clouds, which allowed me to record a rather mild high temperature for the day.  But that hail and other various forms of frozen precipitation from above cooled things down significantly during the mid-late PM hours.

A rapidly expanding area of upper-level low pressure is now centered right along the border between Afghanistan and central Pakistan, and will continue to intensify during the coming 24 to 36 hours.  This system is causing the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere to cool off significantly, as it overrides very moist and unstable air being pumped in from the south.  This increasing instability is responsible for the thundershower action we've already seen... but that colder air aloft is eventually going to be transferred into lower and lower elevations, changing the dominant precipitation type over to snow.  The latest data would indicate that we could see that transition from rain to all snow occur very early tomorrow (Thursday), with the risk of moderate to heavy snowfall in our immediate area through at least Friday morning.

Rapid improvement is expected Friday night into Saturday morning, as this entire system weakens, and all its available moisture shifts well to our east.  But in the meantime, we will watch as our immediate situation unfolds...

Forecast details are available on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

dramatic changes ahead... (pm.05.feb.19)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 45.9ºF (7.7ºC)
High temp: 54.4ºF (12.4ºC)
Precipitation: none

It was mostly cloudy for the first half of this first day of Losar, but we had some nice sunshine in the midst of the waves of cloudiness during the second half of the day.  The high temp at my location in the upper part of town was only slightly cooler than it's been the last couple of days.

Yes, our current weather conditions are deceptively placid... as a major winter storm system continues to get itself organized just to our west.  The upper-level low pressure center of circulation is located over eastern Turkmenistan at the moment, and will be intensifying rapidly during the coming 48 hours as it pushes slowly eastward through Afghanistan into central Pakistan.  Models continue to advertise the coldest air of this winter season with this system, along with an incredible amount of moisture being sucked in from the Arabian Sea, which will be forced up and against the front ranges of the north Indian Himalayas.  The first bit of rain/snow shower activity should develop overnight, with gradually increasing chances of precipitation during Wednesday.

Widespread heavy rain and snow are expected by Thursday morning, with enough cold air being drawn in to ignite thunderstorms, gusty winds, and a changeover to all snow here at our general elevation.  Barring major changes, which of course are always possible, we're in for a major winter storm experience during the period between Thursday morning and Friday evening.  Get details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above...

LOSAR arriving... (pm.04.feb.19)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 46.4ºF (8.0ºC)
High temp: 56.6F (13.7ºC)
Precipitation: none

We had lots of back-and-forth between clouds and sun all morning into the early afternoon, when those high clouds finally took over and put an end to the rising temperature trend.  Still, it's been a very pleasant day for early February.

It's been very interesting to watch the various computer models' attempts to handle the development and progress of our next winter storm system which is now swirling away over northeastern Iran.  We've had a few remarkable storm systems since early January, but this one could be the most intense of them all, at least according to the latest data and forecasts.  A vast pool of very cold air aloft will collide with moisture being drawn northward from the Arabian Sea right here along the front ranges of the north Indian Himalayas... producing a widespread area of heavy precipitation during the latter part of this week.

As of now, the heaviest rain/snow should occur between mid-day Wednesday and mid-day Friday, with a snow line definitely worth keeping a very close eye on.  Moderate to heavy snow could materialize in or very near to McLeod Ganj on Thursday into Friday, maybe wreaking havoc during the last part of Tibetan Losar celebrations.  If you are a true weathergeek, then you understand that forecasts/conditions can change quickly around here... so be both aware and prepared.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (above) has forecast specifics.