Wednesday, February 6, 2019

building to a climax... (pm.06.feb.19)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 40.3ºF (4.6ºC) -- at 6:55pm
High temp: 53.5F (11.9ºC) -- at 11:45am
Precipitation: 0.51" (1.3cm) -- as of 8:15pm (melted)

Thunder/lightning, rain showers and small hail.  That's been the story since early this afternoon, as our major winter storm system continues to move in our direction.  We did have some periods of sunshine this morning in between clouds, which allowed me to record a rather mild high temperature for the day.  But that hail and other various forms of frozen precipitation from above cooled things down significantly during the mid-late PM hours.

A rapidly expanding area of upper-level low pressure is now centered right along the border between Afghanistan and central Pakistan, and will continue to intensify during the coming 24 to 36 hours.  This system is causing the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere to cool off significantly, as it overrides very moist and unstable air being pumped in from the south.  This increasing instability is responsible for the thundershower action we've already seen... but that colder air aloft is eventually going to be transferred into lower and lower elevations, changing the dominant precipitation type over to snow.  The latest data would indicate that we could see that transition from rain to all snow occur very early tomorrow (Thursday), with the risk of moderate to heavy snowfall in our immediate area through at least Friday morning.

Rapid improvement is expected Friday night into Saturday morning, as this entire system weakens, and all its available moisture shifts well to our east.  But in the meantime, we will watch as our immediate situation unfolds...

Forecast details are available on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.