the latest...

**If thundershower development does not disrupt affairs, we should be approaching the warmest/hottest temps of this summer season over this coming weekend...

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

himalayan summer... (pm.24.may.17)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 64.9F (18.3C)
High temp: 83.4F (28.6C)
Rainfall: none

Cloudiness associated with clusters of thundershowers from western Kashmir into northern Himachal Pradesh can be seen to our north and northwest this evening, but those thundershowers are in their dying phase as the sun sets.  We had another day of nearly full morning sunshine, followed by increasing mountain cloudiness, and then off-and-on rumbles of thunder through the majority of the afternoon.  I never saw so much as a drop of rain, but there could have been some trace amounts of rainfall somewhere around our area.  Temperatures continued their upward climb, as we were expecting.

Today's high temp was just a fraction of a degree shy of the normal high for this date -- and if this weather pattern continues to progress according to plan, we should be rising above normal tomorrow, and stay there all the way through the weekend.  We are right on the eastern fringes of a large area of summertime high pressure which continues to strengthen from eastern Saudi Arabia into Pakistan.  There's still a marginally unstable atmosphere across the western and central Himalayas, however, which keeps us from being able to totally ignore the risk of some mainly PM thundershower development in the vicinity of the mountains.   Friday through Sunday might be our best opportunity to escape that afternoon/evening thunder potential, but even then we're talking about a 10-20% chance of something popping up.

After a very warm weekend, we could see some slight cooling during the first half of next week, along with shower/thunder chances increasing temporarily.  All in all things are not looking terribly out of the ordinary for our mid-summer along the edge of the north Indian Himalayas... in anticipation of pre-monsoon conditions which will start to build during the month of June.

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

time for another warm-up... (pm.23.may.17)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 63.1F (17.3C)
High temp: 80.7F (27.1C)
Rainfall: trace

We're in the midst of a beautiful evening, and we also had a beautiful morning... but in between there was a flare-up of thundershowers over the mountains which just barely grazed us here in town.  At my location on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center there was only a trace of rainfall -- in the form of about 20 minutes worth of sprinkles and drizzle -- right around 3:30pm.  There was also a good amount of thunder preceding that.  Otherwise we had a lot of sunshine up until about 1:30pm, and have had more nice sun this evening.  My high temp today was the warmest since Saturday.

Our overall weather pattern is showing strong signs of improvement over the course of the coming several days -- and that should take us through the weekend into the very first part of next week.  A big ridge of high pressure is trying hard to nudge its way into northwest India from the southwest, and that's already triggering a warming trend that should become even more aggressive by the end of the week.  However, lingering pockets of cooler air aloft, and the ever-present weak ripples and wiggles floating through in the upper atmosphere will keep us concerned about at least a slight chance of some thundershower development during the PM hours.  Some of the data is also suggesting we could get some nocturnal thundershower action as well.  Despite all that, we should have a majority of dry hours and intense summer sunshine during the days ahead.

The highest temperature I've recorded this season/year so far was 89.6ºF/32.0ºC back on the 8th of this month.  There is a chance we could be making a return to temps in that general category by the weekend.

Monday, May 22, 2017

perhaps some improvement... (pm.22.may.17)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 58.3F (14.6C)
High temp: 74.8F (23.8C)
Rainfall: 0.09" (2mm) -- as of 4:50pm

There have been a few sprinkles of rain around the area this evening since around 5:40pm, but it's been barely enough to wet the pavement.  Otherwise it is mostly cloudy as sunset approaches.  The only other rain we've experienced today occurred during the wee hours of the morning, and even that was quite light, as you can see from the stats above.  In between, we had a few fluctuations back and forth between clouds and sunshine -- but there was more sun than yesterday, though the actual temperature didn't reflect that.  My high temp in the upper part of town was about 9ºF/5ºC cooler than normal for the date.

It's now been nearly two weeks since we began this phase of very unsettled, unstable and frequently changeable weather -- I have recorded measurable rainfall on nine of the past fourteen days.  That rainfall has not been particularly heavy, but it seems we're dodging showers here and there, now and then, nearly every day.  The latest disturbance responsible for this recent bout of showery weather is nearly right on top of us this evening, but will continue to weaken as it pushes east-northeast overnight into Tuesday.  Although we're not going to stabilize completely, there are some positive signs that we'll be moving toward a more settled pattern as the rest of the week progresses.  But you know the story... even in the midst of summer sunshine and a return to warmer temperatures, we'll have to be aware of some rogue (mainly PM) thundershower development.

On average, the 20th of May through about the 15th of June is the warmest period of the entire year here in the Dharamsala area.  We're into that window now, and it is indeed looking like we're going to see temperatures rise significantly as we head toward the weekend...

Sunday, May 21, 2017

chronically unstable... (pm.21.may.17)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 58.1F (14.5C)
High temp: 75.9F (24.4C)
Rainfall: 0.20" (5mm)

It is mostly cloudy this evening, but at least it's quiet and pleasant now.  We had quite the rocky and turbulent afternoon, with rapidly increasing clouds, gusty winds and falling temperatures during the noon hour, thunder right around 2:00pm, and then a period of thundershowers accompanied by more gusty winds and very cool temps between roughly 3:00 and 4:15pm.  There was some sunshine during the morning, but it was the dim/filtered kind of sun, due to lots of high clouds in the area.  My high temp was the coolest I've recorded since the 4th of May.

A weak but broad area of low pressure in the upper-levels of the atmosphere is centered right along the Punjab/Pakistan border right now, and is expected to move only slowly eastward during the coming 24 hours as it gradually dissipates.  That means we've got more unstable weather in the forecast through tomorrow -- with more development of scattered showers and thundershowers quite likely from northern Pakistan into Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.  By tomorrow night into Tuesday there should be some semblance of stabilization occurring, but all throughout the coming week our atmosphere is going to remain marginally unsettled, with the risk of an isolated thundershower or two not out of the question.

We should remain cooler than normal for the latter part of May for another day or two, but it's still looking like a fairly dramatic warming trend will be underway during the latter half of the week -- and that could take us back above seasonal norms/averages by Friday or Saturday.