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Friday, February 13, 2015

sun/cloud mysteries... (am.13.feb.15)>

We have perfectly clear skies at sunrise on this Friday morning... the lingering clouds and fog last evening dissipated very quickly right after sunset.  I'm recording an overnight low of 44.4F (6.9C), and there has been no precipitation.

A milder air mass surging northward into Himachal Pradesh will bring us the warmest temperatures of 2015 during the next three days -- though it's still not really accurate to say that 60F (16C) is warm.!  But it will be a bit above normal for the middle of February, and a preview of the spring season which is still actually a few weeks away.  Yesterday afternoon it was evident that we've got cloud development issues to deal with here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars, as this milder air mass tries to arrive.  We'll start the day with lots of sunshine, but we may be dealing with some clouds/patchy fog again by later in the day.  Still, we should be storm-free until perhaps late Sunday night into Monday.

By that time, a very complex and extensive area of disturbed weather will be forming to our west.  The models are all over the place with regard to just how this system is going to come together and impact northern India -- but be prepared for an increasing chance of rain showers during the early part of next week.  Some data is now targetting late Tuesday through Thursday for the best potential for significant rainfall... but we could have a different picture each and every time the model data comes out, until the evolution of the upper-level pattern becomes set.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for forecast details.