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Monday, February 16, 2015

an inclement outlook... (pm.16.feb.15)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 46.9F (8.3C)
High temp: 56.3F (13.5C)
Precipitation: 0.17" (4mm) -- updated @ 8:00pm

It's a fairly miserable evening out there, to be frank.  We have thick clouds overhead and light rain is falling at the moment.  Up until about 5:30pm we only had some random sprinkles of rain since this morning's report, but rain showers have been a little bit more substantial since then.  There were a few dim peeks of sunshine today, otherwise the clouds were firmly in control.

The change in the weather pattern we've been talking about and anticipating for many days has arrived right on schedule today.  The first in a very long series of upper-level disturbances has been pushing into north India since this morning, stirring up these random mainly light rain showers as the dynamic energy aloft interacts with increasing moisture in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere.  This really is looking like a long-term period of disturbed weather, with significant upper-level circulations expected to ripple through the western Himalayan region all the way into early next week.  It's maddening to try and work out the timing on the individual disturbances, because each computer model has its own solution -- but the bottom line is that we're going to have periods of rain showers and possible thunder on and off and on and off for the next seven or eight days.

If I really had to nail it down, I'd say that our heaviest rainfall might occur between tomorrow (Tues) night and late Wednesday night, and again between Thursday evening and Friday evening.  But that call is definitely not set in stone.

Temperatures will be much cooler during spells of rain and thick clouds, but will still be rather mild for the season if we can get some dry periods with peeks of sun here and there.  As always, THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK (tab above) has the details.