the latest...

Check archived posts (right column) and stats (above) for general information.

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

potentially soggy Losar... (pm.18.feb.15)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 42.6F (5.9C)
High temp: 54.1F (12.3C)
Precipitation: 0.33" (8mm) -- updated @ 8:00pm

We're totally socked in with clouds just after sunset on this Losar's Eve... and light rain is falling as of just a few minutes before I started writing.  Early this morning it looked as if we might get away with an OK day, but clouds quickly thickened up well before noon, and a couple of brief, light showers started developing during the noon hour.  There was even a very brief period of hail around 12:45pm.  More substantial thundershower action got going shortly before 3:00pm, and we've had off-and-on showers ever since.  A rather chilly low temperature for the day (see stats above) actually occurred in the midst of those mid-afternoon thundershowers.

There has been a lot of inconsistency in the way the computer models have been trying to resolve this series of disturbances tracking across northern India this week, but there's now pretty good agreement about the coming 48 hours or so.  And it doesn't look very good for the first day of the Tibetan New Year.  Although I'll be surprised if it rains all day, it still looks likely that we'll see some substantial periods of rain -- most likely between mid-day tomorrow and mid-day on Friday.  In the meantime, we may get a bit of a break later tonight into early tomorrow morning before that next batch of upper-level energy moves in.

On the other side of the equation, confidence is building that we'll have a nice period of dry weather over the weekend, lasting perhaps all the way through Monday.  That dry weather will be accompanied by a very dramatic warm-up, in advance of a potentially intense late winter storm between Tuesday and Thursday of next week.

Get forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page...