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Friday, March 13, 2015

very slow changes... (am.13.mar.15)>

It's a pleasant Friday morning -- with some patches of thin cirrus clouds gracing the sky.  I've recorded a low temp of 51.8F (11.0C), and there has been no precipitation overnight.

We've now had three relatively nice days in a row, with a variety of sun/cloud combinations, and temperatures which are much closer to normal for this stage of March (though still cooler by a couple of degrees).  A high pressure ridge has kept the atmosphere very stable, preventing any cumulus/convective development whatsoever.  But this phase of calm and quiet weather will be on its way out during the next couple of days, as a new upper-level system inches eastward into northwest India.  The center of circulation itself has barely moved in the past 24 hours -- still located close to the junction of Iran/Afghanistan and Pakistan.  It's barely begun to tap into moisture from the Arabian Sea which will be fuel for rain and thunderstorm development across a large part of northwest India over the weekend into early next week.

There could be some isolated/random showers developing tonight or Saturday morning, but the better chances of significant rainfall still look like they will hold off until perhaps Saturday evening -- then lasting all the way through Monday.  This shouldn't be a continuous period of rain, but look out for several waves of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms during that period.  Our temperatures will cool off yet again, but we should see a fairly quick rebound starting on Tuesday of next week.

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