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Thursday, March 5, 2015

a shower risk... (am.05.mar.15)>

There's a big batch of cloudiness moving in from the west early this morning, but temperatures are a bit milder than they've been the last few mornings.  I'm recording an overnight low of 42.1F (5.6C), and there has been no rainfall since last report.

A weak upper-level disturbance moving into northern Pakistan at daybreak is going to be our primary concern during the coming 12 to 18 hours or so.  In addition to the increase in clouds, there is also a fairly good chance of some mainly light rain shower development today into tonight.  One model is a bit more aggressive than all of the others -- so overall, it is difficult to ignore that shower potential.  This little system will zip off to the east by early Friday morning, leaving us with a nice (but short) period of weather lasting into mid-Saturday, as our temperatures try to warm up a few degrees.

There have been some major changes with regard to the timing of the next strong storm system.  Up until last evening, it had looked like it would hold off until at least Sunday afternoon, but this morning's data has the whole system developing and moving in much more quickly.  It now seems like there could be some significant rain and even thunderstorm development by Saturday night -- with the potential for periods of moderate to heavy rain lasting through Sunday and into much of Monday.  The good news is that if this scenario holds, Tuesday (10 March, Uprising Day) would be much better than it had looked before.

Forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.