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Sunday, April 17, 2016

shower/thunder risk is back... (pm.17.apr.16)>

*Update @ 8:56pm...  The light/power has been coming and going a few times in the last half hour.  Still plenty of thunder and lightning with occasional wind gusts... but so far the rain itself has been spotty and fleeting.  Nothing to measure in the gauge, yet.

*Update @ 8:29pm... Thundershowers with gusty winds have continued to develop all around us, and especially just to the south.  Here at my location, there have only been a few sprinkles of rain, despite the thunder, lightning and strong winds.  Ooooops... power gone.


Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 55.9F (13.3C)  -- updated @ 10:00pm
High temp: 82.4F (28.0C)
Rainfall: 0.28" (7mm) -- updated @ 10:00pm

The sky is looking a bit less stable this evening, with some towering cumulus clouds in all directions, and even evidence of some thundershower development off to the south-southeast.  We managed about equal parts clouds and sun today, but the sunshine was prevalent enough to provide us with another unseasonably warm high temp -- a bit above expectations.  It's been the sixth dry day in a row... unless we get some raindrops before midnight.

...And that could happen.  The first in what looks to be a rather long string of upper-level circulations is now starting to ease into Himachal from the west.  These little disturbances will be chipping away at our recent ridge of high pressure which has kept us stable since last Monday afternoon, while also setting the stage for some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity to pop up.  Models the last 24 hours are actually less aggressive with that shower development here in our immediate area, but it'll be a good idea to be braced for it nonetheless.  Any individual showers/thunderstorms shouldn't last longer than a couple of hours, but it looks like there will be at least a 20-30% chance almost every day of this coming week.

Temperatures should drop several degrees over the course of the week, but the overall air mass characteristics would favor us remaining near normal for this stage of April, even if it does cool off for a few hours during and just after a thundershower.

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