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Thursday, December 10, 2015

more like winter... (pm.10.dec.15)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 46.6F (8.1C)
High temp: 54.7F (12.6C)
Rainfall: 0.09" (less than 2mm) -- as of 9:30pm 

A few light rain showers are scattered around the area early tonight, with mostly cloudy skies.  We had the first wave of gusty winds and some brief light showers during the pre-dawn hours, though there wasn't enough to measure in my rain gauge in the upper part of town until another brief period of light showers during the mid-afternoon.  Even then, you can see from the stats above that we haven't really gotten started in terms of significant amounts of rain.  Today featured some periods of thick cloudiness, but also several peeks of sunshine, along with the isolated showers and occasionally gusty winds.

The atmospheric dynamics moving into northern India right now are very impressive -- with an evolving low-pressure circulation now centered just northwest of Kabul, Afghanistan, accompanied by the coldest air of the season by far.  There's a sub-par amount of moisture available for this system to work with, but the dynamic environment is so intense that whatever moisture IS available is going to be lifted and condensed here along the mountain slopes, it appears.  It's still looking like the best potential for a significant period of precipitation will occur between later tonight and around midnight tomorrow (Fri) night.  It's always a little nerve-racking -- waiting for things to manifest -- but it's looking likely that will happen shortly.

The air mass accompanying this system is colder than normal for this early in the winter season, and that means we could see a significant accumulation of snowfall well below Triund, and possibly even down to the vicinity of Galu Temple and that neighborhood.  In terms of rainfall, more than one inch (2.5cm) seems possible for us.

Sunshine should return on Saturday, but temperatures will stay on the chilly side all the way through the forecast period.  That's going to be our new reality, as it appears this relatively mild prelude to winter comes to an end.

As always, get the forecast specs on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.