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Monday, April 3, 2017

the dream is ending... (pm.03.apr.17)>

Monday's stats: 

Low temp: 61.5F (16.4C)
High temp: 75.6F (24.2C)
Rainfall: trace

Today's high temp was the 'coolest' of the last eight days -- if only by about 1ºC -- thanks in part to a rapid build-up of mountain cloudiness right around the noon hour, which led to a brief period of some sprinkles of rain between 1:00 and 2:00pm.  Those raindrops were not enough to register a measurement in the gauge, so we've now had 17 days in a row without even so much as 0.01" of precipitation.  This evening at sunset we have a lot of mid- and high-level cloudiness moving in from the west.

Well it looks like we can say GOODBYE to the extended period of extremely nice spring/early summertime weather we've enjoyed since around the 20th of March, as a dynamic storm system sets its sights on Himalayan north India.  The center of the upper-level system itself is just west of the Caspian Sea this evening, but will move into northern Pakistan by Thursday morning, and then weaken as it swings across Kashmir on Friday.  In advance, a good amount of moisture will be drawn northward and up against the mountains, as much colder air gradually filters in from the northwest.  For more than a week we've been watching the models' scenarios about what might come to pass... and I have to say, things are still looking kind of nasty.

The risk of scattered showers and thundershowers will be on the increase during the coming 24 hours, but it still looks like the best chance of some bouts of moderate to heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms will be concentrated between Wednesday mid-day and Thursday night.  We should also have some very strong and gusty winds at times, as temperatures plummet well below normal for early April.  Current data suggests that there could be significant snowfall (more than one foot?) around Triund, and perhaps even slightly below.  Of course we'll have to watch that.

Lingering thundershowers are a good bet on Friday, but quick improvement is expected over the weekend into early next week, as temperatures rebound close to normal for the season by Monday or Tuesday...