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Tuesday, April 4, 2017

increasingly turbulent... (pm.04.apr.17)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 55.4F (13.0C) -- at 3:55pm during thundershower
High temp: 71.4F (21.9C)
Rainfall: 0.10" (3mm)

The last time there was something to measure in the rain gauge was back on the 17th of March -- and the last time I recorded a high temperature cooler than today was on the 22nd of March.  So... the changes we've been anticipating the last several days have finally begun to occur.  We had some thunder, gusty winds and sprinkles of rain very early this morning, and another couple of times thereafter, but it wasn't until about 3:30 to 4:00pm that we actually had a bonafide shower than produced something tangible in the gauge.  There were also some impressive lightning strikes with thunder around that time.  A back-and-forth dance between sun and clouds went on all day, otherwise.

Our weather-maker between now and Friday will be a developing upper-level storm system which is now located over northeastern Iran.  It is expected to deepen and strengthen significantly tomorrow and Thursday, as it heads toward northern Pakistan.  Ahead of it, moisture will be drawn northeastward into Himalayan north India, as a large batch of much cooler air slides in from the northwest.  This combo will give us an increasing chance of several periods of moderate to heavy rain showers, thunder, and gusty winds -- lasting through Thursday night -- with some lingering thundershowers a good bet on Friday as well.  I think we'll see plenty of dry hours between episodes of thunderstorms in the midst of all that, but our atmosphere will really be churning during the coming two to three days.  Temperatures will drop considerably, especially when it's raining, making it feel like late winter again, at least temporarily.  This won't be a good time to venture up-mountain, as snow accumulations, perhaps heavy, could occur all the way down to Triund or maybe a bit below.

Right now the models are showing rapid and dramatic improvement starting on Saturday, with sunny to partly cloudy skies and temperatures quickly rebounding to early April norms during the early part of next week.