march bows out... (pm.31.mar.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 59.4F (15.2C)
High temp: 73.9F (23.3C)
Rainfall: none

It's partly cloudy at sunset this evening -- we have a variety of low, mid-level and high clouds scattered across the area.  Once again we have achieved the highest temp of the season and the year, as the sunshine fought hard against occasional waves of mainly high clouds, and a moderate build-up of cumulus over the mountains during the afternoon.  There was no shower/thunder development in our immediate area today, though, unlike the isolated activity we've dealt with the last few days during the PM hours.

The biggest bubble of very warm air of this new spring/summer season is building across the heart of India right now.  We're on the northern fringes of that, with indications that it will seep northward up against the mountains during the next two or three days.  However, an upper-level disturbance organizing well to our northwest in the vicinity of the Caspian Sea will edge gradually eastward over the weekend, and will probably increase the prevalence of high cloudiness, while also keeping us flirting with at least a mentionable risk of some mainly afternoon/evening thundershowers.  Right now the models are showing the best chance of getting some significant rain shower and thunderstorm action between late Sunday and Monday.

All in all we are doing very well for this March-to-April transition period, with temperatures running a bit above normal, and no signs of any unseasonably cold weather in our future.  That's a far cry from what we were experiencing this time last year!  Check the archives (on the right column) if you're interested in seeing what was going on.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK has forecast specs, above.

characteristics of spring... (pm.30.mar.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 55.8F (13.2C)
High temp: 72.6F (22.6C)
Rainfall: 0.07"  (2mm)

The sky is almost totally clear during this half-hour before sunset, at the end of a day featuring some extreme variability.  We've had the expected back-and-forth between sunshine and clouds throughout the day, but we have also had the expected random shower/thunder development along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars during the afternoon hours.  Actually it was touch-and-go for nearly two hours -- between 1:50 and about 3:45pm -- with a few periods of brief rain showers, rumbling thunder, and even a couple of brief episodes of hail.  The amount of water in my rain gauge was very small, but it was definitely a noticeable punctuation mark in the middle of the day.  There was enough sun working on this mild air mass to boost temps to yet another new high for the season and the year.

This fairly typical springtime weather is expected to continue as we close out March and move into April.  Our westerly flow aloft will tilt to a bit more of a southwesterly component as the weekend arrives, and that may give us more in the way of high clouds, while also ushering in an even warmer air mass.  The afternoon thundershower potential will remain with us right into the weekend as well... but any periods of rain will be short-lived.

Models are trying to show more of a widespread shower and thunderstorm scenario between late Saturday and Monday, as a stronger upper-level disturbance moves across the western Himalayas, just to our northwest.  But at this point it's still not looking like that impressive of a storm system.  Temps will probably cool off just slightly next week.

Forecast details for the coming week can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

general satisfaction... (pm.29.mar.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 55.6F (13.1C)
High temp: 72.1F (22.3C)
Rainfall: none

A very nice spring evening is underway, with just a scattering of clouds along with pleasant temperatures.  It seems the sunshine won the day, though we did see some patches of high clouds from time to time, as well as a fairly decent build-up of cumulus clouds over the mountains during the early to mid-afternoon hours.  In fact, I heard a couple of rumbles of thunder coming from up-mountain right around 2:40pm -- but I never personally witnessed any raindrops, if there were any at all.

The basically flat west-to-east flow we've been talking about the last couple of days should remain in place for the remainder of this week, with occasional very weak ripples in the upper-levels keeping us subject to a couple of hours of moderate instability during mainly the afternoon hours.  There have been attempts at some weak shower/thunder development along the Dhauladhars every afternoon, and I see no reason why that should completely disappear.  Enjoy this comfortable springtime weather, but be aware of that thundershower potential - especially if you are heading into the higher elevations.

Temperatures have reached their warmest of the season and all of 2016 thus far -- and unless we get totally clobbered by some longer lasting and thicker cloudiness, we should see them climb even higher as we approach the end of the week and the beginning of the new month.  The risk of showers and thunderstorms may increase a bit over the weekend into early next week, but right now it still doesn't look like any major storm systems are on the way.  We'll keep watch...

Check out THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for forecast specifics.

agreeable... (pm.28.mar.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 56.1F (13.4C)
High temp: 69.8F (21.0C)
Rainfall: trace

We have hazy skies this evening, with a fairly extensive area of high, thin cirrus clouds overhead as well.  Our Monday started out with almost unlimited sunshine, but we had cumulus development along the mountain slopes by mid-day, just as some of that cirrus began to drift in from the west.  There was even a brief period of very light rain showers at my location on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center right before 2:00pm -- but it wasn't enough to register a measurement in the rain gauge.  Temperatures are almost spot-on normal for the last days of March.

There's really nothing dramatic to speak of with regard to the overall weather scenario as we progress through this week.  The pattern aloft will remain almost unchanged -- a moderate west-to-east flow -- with still no sign of any major storm systems for us to deal with.  We're not talking about a totally quiet and sunny pattern though, as several weak ripples and wiggles will drift across northern India, bringing at least a bit of instability and also a mention of some isolated shower/thunder development during mainly the afternoon hours.  The back-and-forth between sunshine and clouds will continue for the next several days at least.

As far as temps go...  there are strong signs of a warming trend as we head toward the latter part of the week, but as we saw last week, the cloud development could keep us from taking advantage of a truly dramatic warm-up.  At any rate, it's going to be quite comfortable and pleasant, which is what we would normally expect this time of year.

Forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK at the top of the page.