quite a cleansing... (pm.04.may.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 54.0F (12.2C)
High temp: 78.6F (25.9C)
Rainfall: 0.88" (2.2cm) -- updated total thru midnight

Well... I think this is definitely settling the dust.  We have mainly light rain showers in progress at the moment, with cloudy skies, occasionally gusty winds, and a rumble or two of thunder from time to time.  With all that sunshine this morning into the early afternoon, it looked questionable as to whether we would get any more rain today, but a sprawling area of thundershowers broke out right overhead starting around 2:30pm, and we've seen several periods of rain, thunder, gusty winds and even a bit of small hail since then.  Temperatures have been on a roller-coaster ride -- the high occurred around 1:30pm, but then we plummeted about 24ºF/13ºC as the first round of thundershowers got going (see high/low stats above).

An upper-level circulation center is just pushing into west-central Pakistan from Afghanistan this evening, as a stream of tropical moisture gets drawn northeastward ahead of it.  The increasing instability of our atmosphere here along the Dhauladhars first triggered some showers a couple of hours before dawn this morning, but the outbreak of thundershowers this afternoon/evening has been much more impressive.  It looks like things will slowly calm down overnight, but we could see another flare-up of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow (Thu), even though the upper-level circulation itself is projected to weaken.  There will be some gradual stabilization occurring as we head into the weekend, but with lingering moisture hanging around, along with the heat of the early May sunshine, it's going to be hard to remove the risk of mainly PM thundershower development.

Temperatures will be highly variable during the coming several days -- we should pop above normal for this stage of the summer season with the help of several hours of sunshine, but then plunge into the chilly zone during a period of thundershowers.  In other words... it seems we need to be prepared for everything.

Get a look at MAY DAILY STATS, THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and other info on tabs above.

hoping for some rain... (pm.03.may.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp 68.5F (20.3C)
High temp: 76.2F (24.6C)
Rainfall: trace

Our sky remains mostly cloudy just before sunset this evening -- and we would have to categorize the entire day as 'mostly cloudy', with only the most fleeting glimpses of sun.  It's also been very smoggy, with low visibility throughout the day.  Due in large part to that lack of sunshine, there was very little movement on the thermometer, providing us with a cooler day -- the coolest in fact since the 24th of April.  I heard some faint rumbles of thunder just before 3:30pm, and then there were just a few sprinkles of rain between 3:30 and 4:00pm.

Our recent streak of unseasonably warm weather has obviously come to a dead halt, as a changing upper-level pattern and an influx of moisture join forces.  The main energy and circulation in the upper atmosphere is now over northwestern Afghanistan, and will wobble in our direction during the next 36 hours or so, before dissipating.  At the same time, we've got a fairly impressive blob of moisture from the Arabian Sea surging into northwest and northcentral India.  The risk of some scattered shower/thunder action is on the increase right now, but according to all the available info/data, it still looks like the rainfall will indeed be scattered and short-lived for the most part.  We're now on our tenth day in a row without measurable precipitation, the sky is full of dust and smoke and haze, so it would definitely be nice to get enough of a rain shower to clean things up and settle the dust.  Let's hope.

It's really hard to call the proportion of clouds to sun during the next several days, with such a disturbed air mass in place.  Temps will approach or surpass 80ºF/27.5ºC if we can get several hours of sun, but we'll be stuck significantly below that if the clouds don't break.  Looking further ahead, another building ridge of high pressure will probably usher in another big warm-up over the weekend...

Check tabs across the top of the page for more.

genuine stuff of summer... (pm.02.may.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 69.4F (20.8C)
High temp: 88.5F (31.4C)
Rainfall: none

High clouds are increasing from the west-southwest early this evening, otherwise we have hazy skies across the area.  It's been yet another day featuring a predominance of hazy sunshine, with only a few scattered cumulus clouds in the vicinity of the mountain peaks during the afternoon hours.  And for the third consecutive day, we've achieved a new high temp for the season and the year.  In fact, today's high was about 9ºF (5ºC) above the normal/average high for the 2nd of May -- and more in line with what we would expect during the last week of this month.  In other words, we're experiencing mid-summer warmth earlier than we normally do.

But it's looking like we've peaked -- at least for this first surge of genuine summertime heat this year -- with a changing pattern kicking in for the remainder of the week.  A couple of things are happening.  First, an upper-level disturbance and circulation center over eastern Iran is heading our way.  Second, a batch of tropical moisture is being drawn northeastward from the Arabian Sea into parts of Pakistan and northwest India.  This will set us up for increasing clouds during the coming 12-18 hours, and then an increasing chance of some scattered shower and thunderstorm action between late Tuesday and Friday.  As I mentioned last night at this time, we're not talking about lengthy, all-day rains.  What we need to be prepared for is a better probability of off-and-on rain showers and possible thunderstorms, in the midst of alternating clouds and sunshine.  Humidity has been very low for a long time now, and I think we'll notice the rising moisture in the air as the week goes along.

Temperatures should settle back closer to normal for the first part of May, but the increasing humidity may counter the effects of that.  Anyway, I think it's clear that summertime weather has now entrenched itself in Himachal Pradesh for 2016...

Check out all the forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.

still soaring... (pm.01.may.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 66.6F (19.2C)
High temp: 86.3F (30.2C)
Rainfall: none

Well guess what?  We've achieved another high for the season and the year on this 1st day of May -- the maximum temp at my location on Tushita Road in the upper part of town was more in line for the last week of May, rather than the first day.  Humidity remains very low -- in the 20-25% range for most of the daylight hours -- and once again the sunshine was firmly in control.  Just before sunset this evening we have some haze, dust and smoke in the air, but there is a total absence of clouds.

Prematurely, we are under the influence of a mid-summertime kind of air mass and upper-level pattern, providing above-normal temperatures across a wide area.  Temps across Himalayan north India are especially warm for this early in the season, and that of course includes us.  This stability and extreme warmth will stick with us tomorrow (Mon), but then there's going to be a change in the overall pattern.  Increasing amounts of moisture are going to begin surging into northwest India from the Arabian Sea, as some upper-level dynamic energy drifts in from the west-northwest.  That means we should see more cloudiness by late tomorrow into Tuesday, and then a better chance of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Thursday and maybe Friday.  I do emphasize scattered, because any showers that develop will likely not hang around for very long.  After eight days without a drop of rain, some moisture would be welcome.

There are indications that temps could dip a bit, at least temporarily, during the coming week, but we're not talking about a pervasive shot of cooler air, so it won't be hard for us to rebound into the above normal range for this time of year -- as quickly as the weekend.

The final numbers for April can be found on APRIL DAILY STATS (above), and of course THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK details can be found on a tab at the top of this page as well.