warming to resume... (pm.02.may.13)>

Thursday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 61.3F (16.3C)
Afternoon high temp: 75.7F (24.3C)
Rainfall: trace

Our sky has been clearing out rapidly as sunset approaches this evening, after a pretty major build-up of clouds this afternoon which led to a couple of sprinkles of rain in some parts of town.  There wasn't enough to measure in the rain gauge, as has been the case for many days now.  My high temp in the upper part of town wasn't as warm as yesterday, but still only a couple of degrees (F) below normal for early May.

The upper-level circulation which was overhead this morning has been moving slowly to the east all day, but lingering cold air up there above 15,000ft or so has kept us unstable enough for those random light showers during the PM.  We're now poised to see a gradual warming trend throughout all layers of the atmosphere over the weekend into early next week.  Our atmosphere should be stable for the most part, although daytime heating could trigger an isolated shower or thundershower over the mountains on nearly any afternoon -- be prepared for that if you plan to be heading uphill.  

Computer models this evening are hinting at the first 40C (104F) temps of the season in Kangra by Sunday and Monday.  Every year, this event makes an impression on me, as it tends to be an indication that full-on summer has indeed arrived.  Of course it won't be nearly that hot up here in McLeod, but we're still looking at our warmest temps of the season just around the corner.

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a bit unstable... (am.02.may.13)>

It is partly to mostly cloudy at sunrise on this Thursday morning.  My overnight low temperature here in the upper part of town was 61.3F (16.3C), and humidity has remained consistently in the 35-40% range.  There has only been a trace of rain during the past 24 hours at my location, and i doubt if there has been anything measurable around the area.

A rapidly dying upper-level disturbance is located pretty much right overhead this morning -- its associated pool of much colder air in the higher levels of the atmosphere being responsible for the clumps of clouds still evident.  What's left of this system will continue moving off to the east today, but the lingering colder air aloft combined with (comparatively) much warmer air at the surface will cause enough instability to keep the risk of a random shower or thundershower mainly over the mountains.  As we've seen recently, this air mass is just too dry to produce much in the way of measurable rainfall, but the risk exists nonetheless.

Temperatures today will be a couple of degrees lower than yesterday's highest of the season (and the year), but a large bubble of very warm air will be building across northern India during the next several days.  With a dry and generally stable air mass in place, we should be seeing truly summer-like conditions over the weekend into early next week -- but that's exactly what we'd expect as May unfolds...

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new warmest... (pm.01.may.13)>

*Update @ 7:55pm... I've just updated today's recorded high temp, since it rose even further since I'd last checked it during the early afternoon.  79.3F (26.3C) at my location means well above 80F in lower parts of McLeod, and near 90F in Dharamsala.  Although we've got a very unstable atmosphere overhead this evening, humidity of just 38% precludes rain development, at least for now.  I'm still a little concerned about what might happen overnight...

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Wednesday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 62.8F (17.1C)
Afternoon high temp: 79.3F (26.3C) -- warmest of 2013
Rainfall: trace

It's mostly cloudy as sunset approaches on this first evening of the new month, with a couple of random sprinkles and a breeze kicking up at times.  The sky has looked threatening since mid-afternoon, but here in town there has been no measurable rainfall as of 6:00pm.  The biggest news today (other than the 5.8 earthquake that rattled us at 12:27pm) is the fact that the high temperature was the warmest of the season, and the warmest of 2013 thus far.

The instability that we've been waiting for for the last two or three days finally materialized this afternoon, as much colder air in the upper-levels of the atmosphere began to move into northern India.  This is what triggered the widespread cloud development along the mountains -- but the severe lack of low-level moisture prevented the unstable conditions from translating into any kind of significant rainfall.  As that colder air aloft continues to filter in overnight we could see a couple of scattered showers and thundershowers, but I'm going to be very surprised if we can get anything noteworthy in the rain gauge.  This whole system has fallen way below expectations, but I have yet to hear a single complaint.!

Thursday will likely feature some afternoon cloud development over the mountains, with the possibility of an isolated thundershower somewhere in the area -- otherwise it looks like we're in for a very nice stretch of weather as we head through the weekend into early next week.  Tomorrow (Thu) and Friday won't be quite as warm as today, but a dry and generally stable air mass will lend itself to summer-like temperatures from Saturday forward.

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may day... (am.01.may.13)>

The first morning of May has dawned with a mostly sunny sky, low humidity (36%), and the mildest early morning temperatures of the season.  My overnight low here in the upper part of town was 62.8F (17.1C), and once again, there has been no rainfall to report.

A very slow-moving upper-level disturbance and circulation is located over extreme northern Pakistan, but has still not really made its presence known here in our neighborhood.  The atmosphere has remained generally stable and very dry during the past few days, despite expectations of an increasing chance of some showers and thunderstorms.  There's still a chance of some development, however, as colder air aloft sinks into northern India today and tonight, riding over the top of much warmer air at the surface.  The limiting factor for thunderstorm development will be the lack of available moisture -- some of the driest air of this spring/early summer season is pretty well established across northwest India right now, so even if we get enough instability to trigger some thunderstorms, rainfall amounts shouldn't be much to get excited about.

Lingering instability on Thursday could lead to some afternoon thunder development over the mountains, but a dry, generally stable and increasingly warm scenario is expected as we move into the weekend.  It's starting to look and feel like summer is definitely getting under way.

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