sun and pm thunder... (pm.06.oct.12)>

Saturday's stats:

Morning low temp: 59.5F (15.3C)
Afternoon high temp: 72.1F (22.3C)
Rainfall: 0.15" (4mm)

The morning was stunningly beautiful, but we had a massive build-up of clouds over the mountains early this afternoon which led to about an hour and a half of thundershowers with some pea-sized hail at times between 3:00 and 4:30pm.  I was surprised to find only 0.15" in my rain gauge, as it seemed like more than that to me.

As is typical for early October, moisture in the air is very limited... I've been measuring humidity ranging generally in the 40-55% range during the past 24 hours, and it's much drier than that in the higher levels of the atmosphere.  Despite that, we have a general trough of low pressure aloft which has established itself across extreme northern India, and that feature is expected to persist for the next few days.  It's a weak kind of weather system, but it does contain some colder air along with a bit of circulation in the mid- and upper levels -- and that means that the risk mainly afternoon thundershower development over the mountains will continue.

Otherwise, enjoy the fantastically comfortable temperatures and liberal doses of fall sunshine... just be prepared for potential interruptions primarily during the mid- to late afternoon hours.

SATURDAY NIGHT:

mostly clear and seasonably cool.

low: 15C (59F)

SUNDAY:

sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant.  a period of thundershowers possible after 2pm.

high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY NIGHT:

mostly clear.

low: 15C (59F)

MONDAY:

sunshine in the morning, with some clouds during the afternoon.  continued risk of a PM thundershower.

high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY:

sunny morning - partly cloudy afternoon.  and isolated PM thundershower?

morning low: 14C (58F)

daytime high: 22C (71F)

WEDNESDAY:

morning sun giving way to partly cloudy skies in the afternoon.  an isolated PM thundershower possible.

morning low: 14C (58F)

daytime high: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY:

morning sun, with some afternoon clouds.  still that PM thundershower risk.

morning low: 14C (57F)

daytime high: 22C (71F)

a decisive end... (pm.22.sep.12)>

According to satellite views, there are scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring along some of the mountain ranges of Himachal Pradesh this evening... but overall, much drier air has taken hold across roughly the northwestern third of India.  Tropical moisture associated with the monsoon has been pushed well to our south and east, and it doesn't look like it will be returning this season.

The withdrawal of monsoon conditions this year has been much more more dramatic and decisive than in several recent years, which is good news for everyone.  It is likely that the India Met Department will declare official MONSOON WITHDRAWAL for large parts of north and west India during the next 2-3 days.

Be aware that afternoon and early evening thundery downpours could still occur along the south-southwest facing mountains during the coming days... but of course that can happen any time of year.  The big news is that our days of high humidity, extended fog, and long-lasting heavy rainfall appear to be gone for 2012.!!

the transition phase... (pm.18.sep.12)>

Major seasonal changes are in progress, as a rather strong disturbance in the upper-atmosphere moves through, and sweeps the deep and rich tropical moisture to our south and east.  The driest air in many weeks will be flowing into the area during the latter part of this week, allowing humidity levels to drop into the comfort zone.

Every year during these waning days of the monsoon season we get occasional heavy showers/thundershowers popping up all of a sudden, which can be frustrating.  Be aware of that possibility as we head into the weekend... but the bigger picture indicates that we're definitely into the transition phase OUT of Monsoon 2012.  This is happening only slightly behind the normal schedule this year, and quite a bit earlier than what we experienced last year.

I'm still in Cambodia, where we've had a couple of dry and semi-sunny days, after massive amounts of rain during the past couple of weeks.  I've experienced my share of heavy rain during the monsoon season in McLeod, but the volume of rain over here is incomprehensible... on the order of 5-10" (10-25cm) per day!!

positive signs... (pm.16.sep.12>)

Looking over the weather charts this evening (from the southwestern coast of Cambodia), I see that there will be a fairly strong upper-level disturbance sweeping through the area from the west during the coming 3-4 days.  In its wake, some of the driest air in the past 3 months will be moving into northwest India... by Friday and Saturday.  This is the first tangible sign of a significant retreat of tropical moisture and monsoon conditions for the Dharamsala area this season.

The India Met Department won't be declaring the demise of Monsoon 2012 during the coming several days, but it does look like we are getting close to the end....