pleasant start to the weekend... (am.9.apr.11)>

we have a beautiful dawn in progress... mostly clear skies with a rather balmy temp of 58.1F (14.5C).  this is the warmest early morning low temperature since tuesday, the 29th of march!

our saturday will begin with lots of sunshine, and it should be a pleasantly warm day... but satellite photos are already showing batches of mid- and high clouds approaching from the west, in association with the next upper-level disturbance.  although temps aloft have warmed up, this is looking like a dynamic system, and there are indications it may be able to pull in more moisture than our most recent storms.  the first chance of shower and thunderstorm activity will enter the forecast this afternoon... with chances gradually increasing tomorrow into monday.  once again, we're not talking about any long-lasting, all-day rains, but just be prepared for a few of periods of showers and storms between late today and tuesday... with the best potential for significant rainfall on sunday and monday.

after today, our temperatures are going to be dropping a few degrees, keeping us below our mid-april normal high of around 75F (24C)... and although rain chances will start to diminish by tuesday, the general weather pattern will remain unsettled for much of next week.

SATURDAY: sunshine this morning, but increasing clouds by this afternoon, with a chance of a shower or thundershower.
high: 23C (73F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies, with a thundershower possible.
low: 15C (59F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy, with a better chance of a couple of showers and/or thunderstorms.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and cooler, with a few showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 20C (68F)

TUESDAY: clouds, and a few peeks of sun.  unseasonably cool, with a lingering shower or two still possible.
high: 19C (67F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy skies.
high: 21C (69F)

another 24 hours of "nice"... (pm.8.apr.11)>

there are patches of high, thin cirrus clouds across the area this evening, otherwise skies are mostly clear, after a really really nice day.  i recorded a high temp of 70.9F (21.6C) just below the mountaineering center up at the top of mcleod ganj (surprisingly, it was only 69F (20.6C) near the main temple)... which was the warmest in nearly a week.

you may have noticed that there was very little development of cumulus clouds over the mountains this afternoon, which is a clear indication that temperatures in the upper atmosphere have finally warmed up in relation to surface temps.  unfortunately, this stable situation is going to be very short-lived.  a very active, fast-moving jetstream pattern is developing to our west yet again, and will push another upper-level disturbance through northern india between late tomorrow and monday.  i think most of tomorrow (saturday) will be OK, but shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase starting late tomorrow afternoon.  the best potential for some significant rainfall will occur on sunday and monday.  this time of year it is hard to get long-lasting, all day rains... but i would put the chance of scattered showers and storms at around 60-70% during that period.

although our temps have recovered a bit, it will still be hard to get back up to april normals during the next several days.

FRIDAY NIGHT: occasional high clouds, otherwise fair and mild.
low: 14C (57F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy and pleasantly warm... but with a chance of a thundershower by late in the day.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy with a shower or thundershower possible.
low: 14C (58F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy and turning cooler again.  good chance of a couple of showers and/or thundershowers.
high: 20C (68F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy and rather cool, with a few showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 19C (67F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy, with one or two showers still possible.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of sun and clouds... pleasant temps.
high: 22C (71F)

a fine friday... (am.8.apr.11)>

it is 54F (12.2C) just before sunrise this morning, with mostly clear skies.  despite a few patches of high clouds, it looks like we are in line for lots of sunshine and some rapid warming this morning.

for the past 5 days in a row, high temps have remained below 70F (21C), which is well below normal for early april.  but today we stand a very good chance of breaking out of that.  significant warming is occurring both at the surface and aloft, ahead of the next storm system, so we should be able to enjoy some more comfortable temperatures... if only for a day or two.

yet another strong branch of the jetstream will bring in a brand new upper-level disturbance starting late tomorrow.  that means we'll see clouds thicken up again, and shower and thunderstorm chances increase... especially for sunday and monday.  there are indications that this system will have more moisture to work with than the previous two... so i don't think it is out of the question for us to pick up some fairly decent rainfall (greater than 1cm/0.40") during that 48 hour period.  temperatures will also drop again early next week.  as usual... stay tuned for updates as things evolve...

FRIDAY: mostly sunny this morning, partly cloudy during the afternoon.  a bit warmer...
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies.
low: 14C (57F)

SATURDAY: periods of sunshine and clouds, with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm by late afternoon.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a good chance of a couple of showers and/or thundershowers.
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy, with a few showers and thunderstorms likely.  turning cooler...
high: 19C (67F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy with one or two lingering showers possible.
high: 20C (68F)

warming just a bit... (pm.7.apr.11)>

it's turning into a nice evening... after a day that has been pretty much equally split between sun and clouds.  the morning was glorious, but thick clouds developed over the mountains during the afternoon, which led to some random sprinkles and even a couple of rumbles of thunder between 2 and 4pm.  the high temp reached 66.4F (19.1C)... better than yesterday, but still a good 8F (4C) below normal for this time of year.

we should see another incremental improvement tomorrow... as temperatures warm a bit both at the surface and aloft.  the relationship between surface and upper-air temps will keep things marginally unstable, which means there could be another build-up of clouds over the mountains and a brief period of thunder/sprinkles during the afternoon.  also, batches of high clouds are showing up to our west, and those will dim the sunshine from time to time.

by saturday, we'll start to be influenced by the next disturbance in the jetstream pattern, which will gradually increase the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  right now, i think the best chance of rain will come between saturday evening and monday afternoon.  with the arrival of this next disturbance, i see little chance of our temps warming into the range of "normal" during the next several days.

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy.  not as cool as last night.
low: 12C (54F)

FRIDAY: a mix of sun and clouds (PM mountain thunder?)... a bit warmer.
high: 21C (70F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy and pleasant.  chance of a thundershower by late afternoon.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a good chance of a couple of showers and/or thunderstorms.
high: 21C (70F)

MONDAY: mostly cloudy, with a few showers and storms likely.  turning cooler again.
high: 20C (68F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy, with a random shower possible.
high: 21C (69F)