below normal temps... (pm.4.apr.11)>

we have partly cloudy skies just before sunset this evening after a day of sunshine mixed with clouds, a chilly breeze, and a high temp of 67.1F (19.5C) in upper mcleod ganj.  this was our second day in a row with temperatures staying below 70F (21C).

our weather pattern remains quite unusual for this time of year... a strong, fast-moving jetstream is overhead, temperatures aloft are very cold, and the surface pattern is much more like early march than early april.  scattered showers and thundershowers continue to occur across the western himalayan region, but we've shared in very little of it thus far.  i'm reluctant to take rain completely out of the forecast, however, since all the available computer models continue to insist on the occasional development of thundershowers for the next couple of days.  any rainfall that does occur should be light, and short-lived... but don't be surprised if/when it happens.

during the latter half of the week we should see some improvement... temps returning a bit closer to normal for this time of year, and a diminishing shower threat.  wondering how long it will take this year to completely retire the sweatshirts, fleeces and jackets!

MONDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy, with a chance of a thundershower moving through.  still cool...
low: 11C (51F)

TUESDAY: a mix of clouds and some sun, along with a chance of a couple of showers and/or thundershowers.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: a shower or thundershower possible, otherwise partly cloudy.  still cooler than normal.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy and warming up a bit.
high: 22C (71F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly sunny and pleasant.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy with a chance of mainly PM thundershowers.
high: 22C (72F)

just plain chilly... (am.4.apr.11)>

we have mostly clear skies just before sunrise this morning, with a cool temp of 50F (10C)... my early morning low was 48.2F (9C), which is crazy for april!

there were scattered thundershowers from kashmir into himachal pradesh again last evening... quite a lot of lightning off to our northwest around 7-8pm last night... but once again, very little (if any) rain to show for it.  the upper atmosphere remains active for the next 3 days or so, with another one or two potent little disturbances expected to move through the area.  it is very cold aloft, and combined with some warming at the surface, there will continue to be enough instability to touch off scattered thundershowers.  the good news is that we should also see a good bit of sunshine in between any potential shower action.

temperatures are way below normal for early april (on the order of 5C/9-10F)... but should gradually moderate toward the end of the week, although still remaining cooler than they should be this time of year.

MONDAY: partly cloudy and unseasonably cool.  chance of a passing shower or thundershower.
high: 18C (64F)

MONDAY NIGHT: a brief thundershower??  otherwise partly cloudy and cool.
low: 10C (50F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy with a couple of showers or thundershowers in the area.
high: 19C (66F)

WEDNESDAY: a bit milder, with partly cloudy skies.  a thundershower or two still possible.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: a mix of clouds and sun... more comfortable temps.
high: 22C (71F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly sunny and pleasant.
high: 22C (72F)

a return to march... (pm.3.apr.11)>

it is partly cloudy early this evening after a day that has felt much more like early march than early april.  in fact, the high temp was only 62.2F (16.8C)... the coolest since the first week of tibetan losar!  there were some sprinkles and brief light showers during the mid- and late morning, but not enough rain to measure.

so much of "weather" we experience here on the ground is influenced and shaped by what is happening thousands of feet up in the atmosphere... and it appears that the pattern aloft is going to remain unsettled and active for the next few days.  as we've seen, humidity is low and moisture is limited, which will restrict our rainfall amounts, but that won't stop us from continuing to see occasional showers (possibly some thunder), periods of cloudiness, gusty winds, and temperatures running well below normal for this time of year.

there are subtle indications that the upper atmosphere may calm down by the latter half of the week.  in that case, our percentage of sunshine will increase, shower chances will decrease... and temperatures will moderate a bit.

SUNDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy and cool, with a chance of a thundershower.
low: 11C (52F)

MONDAY: partly cloudy... still unseasonably cool.  good chance of one or two showers or thundershowers.
high: 18C (65F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a period or two of thundershowers possible.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a continuing risk of a thundershower or two.
high: 21C (70F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy and comfortable.
high: 22C (71F)

FRIDAY: partly to mostly sunny.
high: 22C (72F)

coolish, unsettled... (am.3.apr.11)>

CONGRATS TO TEAM INDIA... 2011 CRICKET WORLD CUP CHAMPS!!

we have mostly cloudy skies just before sunrise this morning, with a rather chilly 53.8F (12.1C).  i'm not sure when it happened, but i have little pools of water in my chairs on the balcony, and the rain gauge is showing 0.06" (1.5mm)... so we obviously got a shower or two during the wee hours of the morning.

the upper-level disturbance we've been watching is centered over southwestern kashmir at the moment, and continues to move slowly to the east.  the main feature of this system is the unusually cold air aloft (for this time of year), which will keep things unstable again today.  the thundershower activity since last evening has brought some of this colder air down to the surface... and that will keep temperatures well below normal for the next couple of days.  there may be another round of showers (and possible thunder) today, but any rainfall amounts will be light.

although there will be a gradual warming trend starting on tuesday... the upper-air pattern is going to remain filled with minor disturbances, keeping at least a small to moderate chance of some thundershowers in the forecast nearly every day of the coming week...

SUNDAY: cloudy early, with some sunshine reappearing.  still a risk of a thundershower or two.  breezy and unseasonably cool!
high: 17C (63F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: an evening shower possible... then becoming mostly clear overnight.
low: 12C (53F)

MONDAY: partly cloudy.. still cooler than normal for april.  slight chance of a brief PM thundershower.
high: 19C (66F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy.  an isolated PM thundershower possible.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy, with a chance of a couple of showers and thundershowers.
high: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a continuing chance of thundershowers.
high: 22C (72F)