angry skies... (pm.2.apr.11)>

skies are mostly cloudy this evening... we've had some thick, dark and threatening clouds for a couple of hours, but no rain that i am aware of.  with sunshine into the early afternoon, we reached a high of 70.9F (21.6C).

the upper-level disturbance responsible for our angry skies this weekend is now moving from pakistan into western kashmir, and is stirring up numerous thundershowers across northern parts of both pakistan and india.  the problem is, low level moisture has been really hard to come by, so despite lots of energy and cold air aloft, rainfall has so far been spotty at best. you may have noticed the cool breeze this afternoon, as some of the cold air in the upper atmosphere has been brought down to the surface.  this is the beginning of a couple of cooler days ahead.

our upper-air pattern is actually going to remain active and rather unstable for the next several days.  this will keep the moderate chance of thundershowers along with below normal early april temperatures in the forecast for a while...

SATURDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a couple of showers possible, maybe a thunderstorm as well.
low: 13C (55F)

SUNDAY: partly cloudy, breezy and cooler.  risk of a thundershower or two.
high: 20C (67F)

MONDAY: partly cloudy and unseasonably cool, with just a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 18C (65F)

TUESDAY: a mix of clouds and sun.  still on the cool side, with a chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy with a chance of a thundershower or two.
high: 21C (70F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy... still that pesky chance of a thundershower.
high: 22C (71F)

weekend variety show... (am.2.apr.11)>

we have a partly cloudy sky before sunrise this morning, with a temp of 55.7F (13.2C).  there has been no rainfall overnight.

an upper-level disturbance set off scattered showers and thunderstorms to our west and north across northern pakistan and much of kashmir last evening... and as it shifts a bit southeastward today, we may get in on the action ourselves.  i'm still concerned about the lack of low-level moisture available to feed this system.  despite the impressive energy aloft, it may be hard to get any significant rainfall.  at any rate, if you plan to be outdoors this weekend, just keep an eye on the sky, in case of rapid thunderstorm development at some point.

the flow in the upper atmosphere will remain embedded with a series of disturbances for the next several days.  it does look like temperatures aloft may warm up slightly... which could reduce the instability... but i am not seeing a totally cloud-free, shower-free pattern ahead.  also, it appears that it will remain a couple of degrees cooler than normal for early april...

IT LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES IN MUMBAI FOR THE WORLD CUP CRICKET FINAL... INDIA VS. SRI LANKA.  THE TEMP WILL BE A SWELTERING 36C (97F) AS THE MATCH BEGINS.  GOOD LUCK, TEAM INDIA.!

SATURDAY: partly cloudy skies.  chance of a shower or thunderstorm developing.  comfortable temps.
high: 22C (71F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy, with a good chance of a few showers and thunderstorms.
low: 13C (55F)

SUNDAY: a mix of clouds and sun.  cooler, with a risk of a thundershower.
high: 19C (67F)

MONDAY: partly cloudy and unseasonably cool, with a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 18C (65F)

TUESDAY: partly to mostly sunny... warming up a bit.
high: 21C (69F)

WEDNESDAY: partly cloudy with a chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 21C (70F)

stormy weather looming?... (pm.1.apr.11)>

partly cloudy skies this evening, after a peach of an april fool's day.  i recorded a high temp of 71.8F (22.1C), and other than a few thin, high clouds and some mountain cumulus this afternoon and evening, there has been plenty of sun.

but, as advertised, things are going to turn on us this weekend.  right now, there is a deep (and deepening) area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere over northern pakistan.  it is already igniting a lot of thundershower activity, mainly to our north and west.  during the coming 48 hours, it will drop southeastward into northern india, giving us a better than 50/50 chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms between now and sunday.  the ingredient that is lacking is good low-level moisture... and that will probably keep rainfall amounts relatively light.  but be prepared for an episode or two of thunder, lightning, gusty winds and some showers during the weekend.

i'm afraid to say... the jury is still out regarding what will transpire next week.  one computer model shows rapid improvement, the others indicate varying degrees of instability and unsettled weather hanging around.  one thing looks likely... we are in for a period of cooler than normal temperatures for the first week of april.

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies, with a chance of a thundershower overnight.
low: 16C (60F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies, with a good chance of a period or two of thundershowers.
high: 22C (72F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: a round of showers and thunderstorms likely.
low: 14C (57F)

SUNDAY: clouds, with a few periods of sun.  chance of another thundershower.  cooler!
high: 19C (67F)

MONDAY: partly cloudy and unseasonably cool.
high: 18C (64F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy and a bit milder, with a chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 19C (66F)

WEDNESDAY: warming up, with partly cloudy skies.  still a risk of a PM thundershower.
high: 21C (70F)

moody april... (am.1.apr.11)>

it's mostly clear as the eastern sky brightens this morning, with a temp of 57.9F (14.4C).  not a bad start to the month of april...

...but changes are on the way.  a rather vigorous upper-level disturbance is forming just to our west, and will swing across the area over the weekend.  it consists of much colder air in the upper atmosphere and an impressive amount of dynamic energy, but the one thing it is lacking is deep moisture.  we may end up with the same kind of situation we had earlier this week... gusty winds, lots of thunder, but only light amounts of rain.  anyway, we'll start to feel the effects of this system today, with increasing clouds, and perhaps a thundershower late.  better chances of some stormy weather are scheduled for both saturday and sunday, with an eventual drop in temperatures.  keep in mind that it won't be raining the entire weekend... just be prepared for a sudden onset of thunder, lightning and some showers.

the good news is that now it appears things will rapidly improve next week... with a warming trend getting underway by tuesday.

FRIDAY: becoming partly cloudy, with a chance of a thundershower by late this afternoon.  rather warm.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy, with a couple of thundershowers possible.
low: 16C (60F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies.  good chance of a period of showers and thunderstorms.
high: 22C (72F)

SUNDAY: clouds, with a few periods of sun.  breezy and turning cooler, with a few thundershowers around.
high: 19C (67F)

MONDAY: partly cloudy, breezy and unseasonably cool!  slight chance of a brief shower.
high: 18C (64F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny and just a bit warmer...
high: 19C (66F)